3-24 to 3-26 possible winter storm?

[franklin NCwx]

This has been the story all winter. Not sure why everyone is just catching on now. Just look at a snowfall map of nc that tells the tale.

[Ollie Williams]

Nice previous discussion from RNK ...

 

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE BACK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
LATE TONIGHT...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
CONTINUED MIXING AND SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVENT A LARGE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES.

WILL START SATURDAY OFF WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. DESPITE THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...THERE WASN`T MUCH TIME TO DRAW DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THEREFORE EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
TRIGGER ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR WESTERN RIDGES...
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP FURTHER TO THE EAST IN THE POST FRONTAL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WITH THE FRONT AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ENTERING THE
MOUNTAINS DURING LATE MORNING...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...WHILE THE PIEDMONT WILL
HAVE MORE TIME FOR HEATING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING HIGHS
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING...
LOSING SPEED AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST
AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT A STRONG WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SENDING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. STICKING CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAS
SHIFTED MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH THIS MORNING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. THIS MODEL IS ALSO WARMER THAN THE NAM/GFS MODEL
SOLUTIONS...KEEPING THE 850MB FREEZING LINE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. AS SUCH...WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...HAVE CONFINED SNOW MAINLY TO SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH
ON THIS SYSTEM TO SEE IF IT TRENDS ANY COLDER...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL BUT STILL MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DRYING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING.

CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING TO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...WHERE IT
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN...WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY
NORTHEASTERLY...PINNING CHILLY AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. DO NOT EXPECT
ANYWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST REGION TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S FOR
MONDAY HIGHS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE 30S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND WILL SEE SNOW
BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW
JUMPS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT PROGRESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A VERY COLD WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH A HUGE THUMB RIDGE WELL INTO THE
HIGH LATITUDES OF WESTERN CANADA. WITH AN UPPER HIGH CLOSED OFF
OVER EASTERN ALASKA...PLENTIFUL ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SENT INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THIS TIME OF YEAR...STRONG SUN ANGLE
CAN MODIFY THIS PURE ARCTIC AIRMASS GREATLY BEFORE IT ARRIVES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. NONETHELESS...THE DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
EFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION OFF
NEWFOUNDLAND...SUCH THAT A WAVE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
MIDWEST IN THE INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED FLOW...ALLOWING A COASTAL
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM IS
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE BEFORE THE
STORM AND MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD BE COLD MONDAY NIGHT LEADING INTO
THE EVENT FOR FROZEN PRECIP. LOOKING MORE AND MORE POSSIBLE THAT
WINTER PRECIP WILL IMPACT OUR REGION AGAIN. HOWEVER...MODELS
CURRENTLY HAVE THIS SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WITH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE...ONLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
STAY SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT...WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN MOST
OTHER PLACES.

DESPITE THIS...REMEMBERING BACK TO THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL LAST
YEAR...AS TO WHAT CAN HAPPEN DESPITE A WARM GROUND AND DESPITE THE
SUN ANGLE IF IT SNOWS HARD AND FAST ENOUGH. THIS IS DEFINITELY A
SYSTEM WORTH WATCHING. MUCH MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS POTENTIAL STORM WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY COLD FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF MARCH...WITH SOME LOWS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

 

 

Mercer showed no mercy! lol

[FLweather]

Hasn't the anti-NW movement this winter been due to the strength of the polar vortex and the cold air?  Since the PV is not in play for this storm, wouldn't this be the one that "could" come NW?  I'm not trying to grasp at straws, but it is way too early to write this off.  It hasn't even reached the NAM zone yet.  There has been significant shifts on almost all of the storms this winter on the models within 84 hours.

 

 

Imo there has been a couple cases where the cold air doesn't penerate like the models have shown. That would ultimately set up the inverted trough axis that forms further west and north. Leading to the NW trend. Really won't know until we find out how far south the cold air pushes Sunday and what if any consequence the Sundays event brings. Even though the models have been trending colder with the Sunday event the cold will have more umph to go further south if any snowpack or ice develops from that system.

 

If anything right now with the east trend that we're seeing recently on the models is likely due to the fact that the models are being too aggressive with the amount of cold air coming. If very well could be right at the amount of cold but also not. 

 

Where ever that front Sunday pushes and stalls will be the track of Tuesdays event along the old frontal boundary or inverted surface trough.

[Brick Tamland]

Pleant of time for it to come back a little further west. RDU will be the jackpot zone.

[Jon]

Pleant of time for it to come back a little further west. RDU will be the jackpot zone.

WHY? If you don't give any reasoning in your post leave this in banter.

[Isopycnic]

Pleant of time for it to come back a little further west. RDU will be the jackpot zone.

reasoning?

[mackerel_sky]

reasoning?

Big Show told him!

This is a non event west of RDU based on trends today. If Euro goes East,most everyone is out!

[superjames1992]

The Euro does continue to give most of NC mood flakes, provided surface temperatures comply.

 

The surface low track looks a little further to the coast than last night, but not enough to matter.

 

I don't really see any reason to give up yet, though I also don't see any reason to get excited.  I don't really buy into the sampling making a huge difference, but we are still 4-5 days out, so there's still time for this to get better or worse.

 

It's weird seeing the GFS the furthest west while everything else is wide right.  It kind of makes you wonder.

[Brick Tamland]

reasoning?

 

I'm on a lucky streak.

[tarheelwx]

The sampling "strategy" to me is usually associated with last gasp desperation. I don't think we're there yet.

TW

[FLweather]

Big Show told him!

This is a non event west of RDU based on trends today. If Euro goes East,most everyone is out!

 

True but not true as well.

 

We all know the models have been bs this winter including the euro. Prior to the last 12-24 hours when this recent trend has started its been showing a solid hit for the northern half and western portions of NC,SC,VA pretty much. There is no reason to change that now. There is alot more support with prior runs and trends then the so called recent ones. 

 

One thing that has happened all winter with all models is they go from a LR solution of A to start hiccuping in the mid range showing solution b. To get in the short term range to fall back in line of solution A from the LR.

[GaWx]

Looking at 3/20-31 for the period 1969-2004, I found only three really good Miller analogs: 3/29/01, 3/24/83, and 3/25-6/1971:

 

1. The 3/29/01 storm wasn't a wintry precip. producer because the cold air to the north was much weaker, resulting in 850's safely above 0C (+5 to +8 C at ATL; GSO started with it already up to +3 and it rose all the way to +9), much warmer than what we potentially face 3/24-5/2014. Also, there was no CAD. So, the result was just a chilly rain.

 

2. The 3/24/83 Miller A had similar cold to what is progged and produced a huge snow for ATL-AHN and a portion of the SC/NC piedmont.

 

3. The 3/25/-6/71 Miller A/B blend wasn't as cold at 850 as what is progged, but it still resulted in major ZR in N GA due to great CAD and 850's of mainly +2 to +6. It resulted in a major SN in the SC upstate and much of NC where 850's were near 0 or a little colder.

 

 So, keeping all in mind in case a trend back to less suppression/further west occurs, the well inland parts of GA/SC/NC could be in for quite a storm

[mackerel_sky]

Are there any real reasons/ forces at play that are pushing this more SE, I.e stronger high, etc, or is the track just going that way? And what can the models see or catch that will show it coming NW? More digging of the trough?

[Hvward]

True but not true as well.

 

We all know the models have been bs this winter including the euro. Prior to the last 12-24 hours when this recent trend has started its been showing a solid hit for the northern half and western portions of NC,SC,VA pretty much. There is no reason to change that now. There is alot more support with prior runs and trends then the so called recent ones. 

 

One thing that has happened all winter with all models is they go from a LR solution of A to start hiccuping in the mid range showing solution b. To get in the short term range to fall back in line of solution A from the LR.

 

Agreed, we have seen this trend over and over again.  Heck the Gfs didn't even have the February storm until 3 days out.  The nam shows something different every time the wind blows and the Euro hasn't really impressed me as of late.  Though different setups, the past two ice storms weren't really forecasted until 36-48 hours before.  I think if they are still showing an eastern progression Sunday night, then we should get white flags out but not this far out. 

[Solak]

Have the individual players been sampled yet? That was one of the items many of the AFD's had been mentioning the last couple days.

[superjames1992]

Unsurprisingly, the 12z Euro ENS mean takes the surface low further east than the 00z run (which was further east than yesterday's glorious 12z run).  It's not a huge difference, but it's not good.

[FLweather]

Have the individual players been sampled yet? That was one of the items many of the AFD's had been mentioning the last couple days.

 

No not yet. In fact Sundays event hasn't either. Though it should be by late tonight early early in the morning. Sundays system is currently around BC, Canada.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/nhem/flash-wv.html

 

 

Even with or with out the fact of proper sampling eventually the models should lose this "East trend" and fall back in line with what they've been showing. Its been doing it all winter long.

[mackerel_sky]

GSP pretty much saying this will be a " no go" event! Their afternoon discussion says even if there is precip that is more than models are showing , the temps in the NC piedmont would change any snow to rain by midday! I think this is toast for everyone, except maybe a few token flakes and some drizzle after that. This is for the Tuesday " event"! It's been a good winter. I'm cashing out!

[BIG FROSTY]

NWS- is at least keeping it in the forecast as of now, they didn't change off these one midday model runs. They will probably let go after 00z tonight! lol

 

.SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...
THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.
 

[Rankin5150]

I personally am excited about this potential, because of the cold air. Living in NC all life, except( for 4 years b/c of tour in the Military) March has produced a few decent snows and a couple of very significant snows. We know the 850's are looking good (especially for this time of year). Actually they are progged better than the last big snow we had in mid Feb (better in terms of not mixing). The question we have is track/available precipitation. Personally, I feel precipitation will not be an issue because the trend EVERY TIME this season has been MORE moisture than forecasted by the models. Hence, these trends today should not be alarming (if you want snow). Do not throw in the towel just yet! Ha. Have a good weekend all!!

Best regards,

Jason

[packbacker]

Unsurprisingly, the 12z Euro ENS mean takes the surface low further east than the 00z run (which was further east than yesterday's glorious 12z run). It's not a huge difference, but it's not good.

Yeah, this storm got away to the east quick, when the two models that are usually most amped (Euro/CMC) are this far east it's hard to imagine this coming back to a coastal hugger. Though I wouldn't completely give up on it until tomorrow's 12z runs as the models haven't been great with NS energy all winter at this range. Maybe this could turn into a Dec 2000 that pounded eastern NC leaving RDU and points west high and dry.

[Jonathan]

Are there any real reasons/ forces at play that are pushing this more SE, I.e stronger high, etc, or is the track just going that way? And what can the models see or catch that will show it coming NW? More digging of the trough?

I believe the ridge out west is being beat down on the models, allowing a more progressive flow, kicking the storm out to sea. I'm pretty bummed, there's such hire potential.

[Solak]

 

US National Weather Service Eastern Region HQ

2 mins ·

Confidence is high that a strong storm will develop off the East Coast early Tuesday and intensify as it tracks northeast into Wednesday. However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding how close to the coast the storm will track. Currently, most computer models indicate that the track will be far enough offshore that coastal sections (near and east of the I-95 corridor) will be on the western fringe of the storm, but there is a lot of variability in the forecast tracks. The atmospheric energy that will cause this storm to form is currently over the Pacific Ocean. There has been a tendency this winter for the model forecasts to shift further to the west once the energy reaches the west coast of North America where there is more data available. NWS forecasters will continue to monitor this potential storm closely as sufficient cold air is expected to be in place for this storm to support some late-season snow for much of the mid Atlantic region into the Northeast.

 

[WSNC]

Are there any real reasons/ forces at play that are pushing this more SE, I.e stronger high, etc, or is the track just going that way? And what can the models see or catch that will show it coming NW? More digging of the trough?

I've been thinking the flow/system to the north looks too progressive. I just read DT's latest facebook post and he discusses this as a result of the west coast ridge getting knocked down due to energy coming in off of the Pacific. We need the northern branch energy to dig further southwest.

[rduwx]

I'll take the 18z gfs. The gfs is still holding on to the further west track.

 

Edit: By hr 96 the 2m temps look like crap though.

[packbacker]

I'll take the 18z gfs. The gfs is still holding on to the further west track.

Edit: By hr 96 the 2m temps look like crap though.

I wonder what the GFS is doing wrong to get to this solution. It's been consistently most west.

2m ain't bad, 33-34F per GFS.

[rduwx]

I wonder what the GFS is doing wrong to get to this solution. It's been consistently most west.

2m ain't bad, 33-34F per GFS.

33-34 isn't bad... I'm on my phone so hard to tell. If that's the case, that would be a big storm for our area.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

I wonder what the GFS is doing wrong to get to this solution. It's been consistently most west.

2m ain't bad, 33-34F per GFS.

 

What makes you think it's wrong? It may very well have the correct solution or still be too far east. We won't have a glimpse of the final solution until Sunday night. Plenty of model runs left for this one.

[packbacker]

What makes you think it's wrong? It may very well have the correct solution or still be too far east. We won't have a glimpse of the final solution until Sunday night. Plenty of model runs left for this one.

I was half joking, but when it's the GFS vs Euro/CMC who would you put your money on....

[superjames1992]

Yeah, the 18z GFS is not bad.  Looks even closer to the coast and in general better than the 12z run.  Something is going to have to give soon.  Either the GFS is going to fold or the other models are going to come west, too.