Cold Rain Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 6z GEFS look better on eWall than the 0z GEFS. There are some decent hits on there. I have no idea about temps though. And virtually all the 0z and 6z GEFS members on eWall have the Sunday night system. 850s generally seem to look pretty good for the northern half of NC. Edit: I guess that's Sunday, during the day. Probably will be boundary layer concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Wasn't the 3/6 monster storm a late-bloomer that didn't get going until the FL panhandle? Yep, that's what hurt north GA. Late bloomers typically leave much of N GA out of the good stuff obviously. N GA and much of NC are world's apart in that regard, among others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 6z GEFS look better on eWall than the 0z GEFS. There are some decent hits on there. I have no idea about temps though. And virtually all the 0z and 6z GEFS members on eWall have the Sunday night system. 850s generally seem to look pretty good for the northern half of NC. Edit: I guess that's Sunday, during the day. Probably will be boundary layer concerns. Yeah, Sunday is interesting, but probably will be rain, but GFS remains consistent on showing snow for the NC/VA border counties. UKMet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I think the what is hurting the Sunday event the most even though the temps aloft have trended colder is the fact of timing. Need the moisture and cold to come in Sunday morning around sunrise. It has been bringing in the moisture in around 7-10am but not the cold. But recently I've noticed the the cold air catches up with the moisture but the timing is off now. Instead of bringing in the moisture around 7-10am its now a few hours later with the bulk of the moisture and cold. From 10am-1pm durring the day lasting into Sunday evening. Even though the temps aloft has gotten colder with the precip BL issues are killing it. Entirely too warm from the Surface just above 925mb. Maybe things will change timing wise since this s/w in question has yet to be properly sampled for atleast another 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 6z GEFS look better on eWall than the 0z GEFS. There are some decent hits on there. I have no idea about temps though. Looked like 6 of 12 were hits for Raleigh based on 850 0 deg, so not bad. Looked like 4 of 12 for Charlotte. The rest were suppressed / weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This just doesn't seem to me to be a true SE storm IMO. It does not get cranking in TX, LA and move east like most true SE gulf storms do. It really materializes more over the FL panhandle. That's just too late to get most of the SE involved I think. Even the good hits shown on the models for this only showed 6 hours of precip or so before it scoots east (on the GFS anyway). That's a recipe for a glancing blow I think at best for the piedmont. Not to mention the warm surface temps...this storm is just meh for me. Congrats to the MA though, what a year they've had! Hopefully we get that kind of winter next year. While recent trends haven't gotten me overly excited. Remember a few things. The models usual always keep temps warm by a few degrees. So take a temp of 34 and it realistically is probably 32. Keep in mind as well they do horrible when it comes to how much it cools once precip starts falling. So no you're probably looking at around 30 or 31 if it does in fact snow. I'm worried little about surface temps at the moment and more with actually precip. As RAH said though the shortwave isn't even sampled yet. It could still blowup good or bad. Finally it's freaking late March. Can you really be that pessimistic when there is a shot at seeing snow fall in late March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 While recent trends haven't gotten me overly excited. Remember a few things. The models usual always keep temps warm by a few degrees. So take a temp of 34 and it realistically is probably 32. Keep in mind as well they do horrible when it comes to how much it cools once precip starts falling. So no you're probably looking at around 30 or 31 if it does in fact snow. I'm worried little about surface temps at the moment and more with actually precip. As RAH said though the shortwave isn't even sampled yet. It could still blowup good or bad. Finally it's freaking late March. Can you really be that pessimistic when there is a shot at seeing snow fall in late March? Well said J Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 While recent trends haven't gotten me overly excited. Remember a few things. The models usual always keep temps warm by a few degrees. So take a temp of 34 and it realistically is probably 32. Keep in mind as well they do horrible when it comes to how much it cools once precip starts falling. So no you're probably looking at around 30 or 31 if it does in fact snow. I'm worried little about surface temps at the moment and more with actually precip. As RAH said though the shortwave isn't even sampled yet. It could still blowup good or bad. Finally it's freaking late March. Can you really be that pessimistic when there is a shot at seeing snow fall in late March? Agreed. I've said it before anything that falls will be a neat event due to it being late March. I was just commenting more or less on the overall set up and this being a real "winter storm" for the SE. I guess too all of March has been a cold, cold rain for CLT. It's got me ready for nice weather....or a snowstorm!!!! No more cold rain!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Models are stuggling with the 3 pieces of energy. This far out I would not worry too much about zig zags. Agree with WPC that baroclinicity is favorable in march. On the other hand, yes, one would want the storm to start up farther west. I constantly preach over in the Tennessee Valley forum that we need it to come out of Texas, none of this just in time digging stuff. Carolinas are more forgiving and closer to the coastal baroclinicity in this situation though. No reason to get hung up on each model run. Bottom line: Pattern is favorable. Jet stream is south after Sunday wave digs out trough. Column is cold enough with room to spare. Surface is the only question, what a shock in March, but if that Northeast high is strong enough it'll work out. I'd be cautiously optimistic over in North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 From news14. Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/447007804012765184 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Great post from HM in the MA forum: Three ways this is different than 1993:1. Some southern energy gets left back across the SW. In 1993, it all came out and amplified significantly.2. There wasn't a southern-stream wave ahead of it that initiates cyclogenesis.3. The baroclinic zone was not pushed south/east from a storm system ahead of it.Three reasons why you shouldn't dismiss the storm yet:1. Despite the weekend wave shunting the baroclinic zone for Tuesday, it acts as a temporary 50-50 low despite the lack of blocking. This thing about "no blocking...out to sea" is dumb. IF it goes out to sea, it's not because of the "lack of blocking and progressive flow." What do these people need to see on a model to not say progressive flow? A 2009-10 type of block?!?2. The weak mid level disturbance just out ahead of the amplifying AJ/PJ phase initiates cyclogenesis on a frontal boundary pushed S/E by this weekend's wave. While this could be the make or break for our area, the details with these things can change significantly still.3. The jet structure, AJ-PJ phase that ultimately becomes a triple phase and the extent of vorticity advection are extremely impressive. This is why every run of every model shows some kind of bomb. Amplifying comma heads are not easily modeled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 NAM is frigid, but no good with the wave diving too far north into Missouri, and no backing flow over the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 For ATL-AHN, whether or not this blows up off the east coast is pretty irrelevant as that would be after we're done though it would probably make it colder after the storm. What N GA needs is simply a weak low forming off of S TX and moving ENE through the northern Gulf while generating nice precip well to the north. This could be done if we could get the 500 mb trough to dig enough to the west to allow for moist WSW flow as opposed to this mainly westerly flow. This last minute development in the NE Gulf normally leaves north GA out, especially NW GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What is this looking like for the AVL area? A co-workers boyfriend is in the Reserves and is supposed to head to Asheville for some sort of training. She was going to go with him but is now wondering if she should just stay behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 12z GFS looks similar to the 06z. Looks like a good hit for Raleigh pending surface temperatures and a glancing hit for GSO. CLT looks a little too far west, verbatim. Maybe 2-4" for RDU and 1-2" for GSO, give or take. The coastal plain looks a little warm. The late bloom obviously doesn't do our GA friends any favors. I haven't looked at soundings or anything, though, so who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It will come West IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I know a lot of people has talked about raleigh.. what's it looking like for the coastal plains with it trending further east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I believe we get a NW trend actually. Looking for GSO to be the sweet spot potentially. RDU in the sweet spot at 96hrs is not optimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 12z GFS looks similar to the 06z. Looks like a good hit for Raleigh pending surface temperatures and a glancing hit for GSO. CLT looks a little too far west, verbatim. Maybe 2-4" for RDU and 1-2" for GSO, give or take. The coastal plain looks a little warm. The late bloom obviously doesn't do our GA friends any favors. Good to see the models still showing a consistent threat. As long as it just doesn't go poof all together, I think this could be the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Canadian a whiff to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Give it time folks, we are in the window for this thing to be a "swing and miss to the east" on the models. This can and possibly will end up turning up the coast, leading to a great storm for central and western NC. I've seen it happen too many times at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Canadian a whiff to the east. So is UK, but both clip SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It's hard to tell with the 24 hour panels, but the 12z UKMET looks like a bomb. Looks like it is not too far off the coast of Rhode Island at hr 120 at 972 mb. Not sure if it works for us or not, though. It definitely looks good for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 While recent trends haven't gotten me overly excited. Remember a few things. The models usual always keep temps warm by a few degrees. So take a temp of 34 and it realistically is probably 32. Keep in mind as well they do horrible when it comes to how much it cools once precip starts falling. So no you're probably looking at around 30 or 31 if it does in fact snow. I'm worried little about surface temps at the moment and more with actually precip. As RAH said though the shortwave isn't even sampled yet. It could still blowup good or bad. Finally it's freaking late March. Can you really be that pessimistic when there is a shot at seeing snow fall in late March? Yeah. It's late March, that's reason alone to be pessimistic haha. Ground temps will limit accum. so even IF we get a 3"+ event it certainly won't look that way, so this event is already set up for failure, IMO. I haven't been following this one as I've been busy but the models aren't entirely impressive...the cold is there so yeah, we're not dealing with a warm nose spanning from 700 to 900 mb but the track isn't down and my hunch is this is likely to just be a DelMarVa to Cape Cod system and leave NC in the dust. Roughly a 20% chance of 3" and about a 30% of 1" in Central NC based off 00z Euro ensembles. GFS ens way east of the 12z Op and even that is pretty far east. GEM the same way. The only thing going for us at this moment is [maybe] the 12z Euro ensemble from yesterday? Today's 00z ensemble is worse and more east, also anomaly isn't nearly as deep. Something I'm missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 So is UK, but both clip SNE.We are getting close to the event and I don't see major shifts west happening. All the trends to day have been eastward shifts. Temps aren't going to be an issue if we have no precip! Atleast we still get low to mid 20s of spring crushing lows after the bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 We are getting close to the event and I don't see major shifts west happening. All the trends to day have been eastward shifts. Temps aren't going to be an issue if we have no precip! Atleast we still get low to mid 20s of spring crushing lows after the bomb! Well I would wait until 12z tomorrow, but JB jinxed it with his it's coming west, blah blah blah...he is having a terrible March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Hasn't the anti-NW movement this winter been due to the strength of the polar vortex and the cold air? Since the PV is not in play for this storm, wouldn't this be the one that "could" come NW? I'm not trying to grasp at straws, but it is way too early to write this off. It hasn't even reached the NAM zone yet. There has been significant shifts on almost all of the storms this winter on the models within 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 12Z Euro says no dice for most with a similar look to its prior run. It is actually even a little more suppressed. I'm just a messenger of news whether it be good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Brad Panovich just put on his FB that totals will be low around Charlotte. He's not sounding too confident for anything big except for Virginia and then up the coast. On the other hand, NC Piedmont Weather is still holding his ground and saying this could be big....and he's been right for almost every storm this season. The local news still has us at a rain/snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Euro looks too far east with the low. it crosses around Orlando then crawls up the coast. Looks like it dodges much of the Eastern seaboard. NC gets around .3 of QPF it looks like but I'm on my phone Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.