3-24 to 3-26 possible winter storm?

[buckeyefan1]

18z GFS from quick glance does look more wintry for KCAE based off 850 only though.  Soundings later~

Buffkit says a cold rain with maybe a sloppy snowflake mixed in   

[Brick Tamland]

Latest from WxSouth:

Sorry for the lack of posts and updates today, just had to catch up on so many other things while the weather offered a break outside. I'm still going with snow spreading across the Tenn. Valley Monday night, getting heavier as you get toward the mountains of TN, NC, northern GA and western Virginia late Monday night overnight. Tuesday morning....SNOW overspreads the central and western piedmonts of both Virginia, North Carolina and upstate SC and begins to taper off in TN and northern GA. The time of day isn't the best for snow accumulation..you'll want an overnight snow to accumulate the best in late March, but it will be enough to amount to several inches it appears in much of NC and VA west of 95 especially, but changing to snow in all those states before ending. The biggest unknown right now is how much moisture and how heavy it is...right now, looks like it will strengthen to "Nor'easter" status off the Mid Atlantic by Wednesday morning, possibly paralyzing the immediate East Coast from eastern North Caroina, eastern VA , the DelMarva and New Jersey, Long Island and southern New England. One small change in track could be more offshore, or more close to the coast, but I'm anticipating a climo type of track near the coast with a "bombing " low pressure, high winds, heavy snows.

Amazing to see this in late March, putting the icing on the cake this month.

[Crapper Jim]

Buffkit says a cold rain with maybe a sloppy snowflake mixed in  

Why does the phrase "a sloppy snowflake" sound erotic?

 

 

<I must be a weather weenie.

[Isopycnic]

Why does the phrase "a sloppy snowflake" sound erotic?

 

 

<I must be a weather weenie.

That's just craptastic, Jim

[griteater]

18z GFS Ensemble Mean

 

[NCSU2005]

Any word on 0z GFS?

[griteater]

Lastest from WPC is closer to the coast, with some kind of triple barrel look thingy...some hybrid cold air damming in there too

 

[rduwx]

Storm still there on the 0z gfs.  No surprise that the gfs appears to be further east than other models.  850's look a little colder but again the timing of this doesn't help a lot of us with the 2m temps.  It would be nice if it was 6 hours earlier.

[griteater]

GFS not nearly as good with the wave...doesn't dig as far to the SW.  It's kind of what you would expect to see out of the GFS at this time range...so the better runs from last night and today were a bit surprising.

[Disco-lemonade]

Look what it turns into on the 27th... that sure would look nice from space 

[griteater]

WPC...is going with a bomb, says that the Euro Ensemble is taking the lead as usual, and in true WPC fashion, fails to acknowledge that the world exists south of Virginia...good read though

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1253 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014VALID 12Z MON MAR 24 2014 - 12Z FRI MAR 28 2014...NOR'EASTER BOMB INDICATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATETUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE REESTABLISHMENT OF CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO NORTH AMERICADURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BAROCLINICITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE.THE LATE-MARCH SUN CONTINUES TO WARM AREAS SOUTH OF THE POLARFRONT, WITH THE INFUSION OF NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THENORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS THERMAL CONTRAST IS, OF COURSE, PARTAND PARCEL OF THE JET STREAM, WHICH IN TURN PROVIDES THEBACKGROUND ENERGY FOR THE PERTURBATIONS WENDING THROUGH THE FLOW.SOME OF THE DEEPEST EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IN MODERNRECORD-KEEPING HAVE AFFECTED THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURINGTHE MONTH OF MARCH--THEIR GENESIS AFFORDED BY THE MONTH'S NATURALBAROCLINIC INSTABILITY.ONCE SUCH PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO GROW VIGOROUSLY AS IT LIFTSUP THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING, THEN BOMB OFF THEMID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE JET STRENGTHENS VIA ANINJECTION OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE MIDWEST. MANY MODELS--INCLUDINGTHE 00Z/21 GFS--DEEPEN THE OCEAN STORM BELOW 970MB NEAR THEATLANTIC BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THISPARTICULAR SET OF MANUAL PROGS, RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ECENSMEAN FOR A BEARING, SINCE NOT ALL THE GUIDANCE WAS YET ON THE SAMEPAGE WITH THE PARTICULARS OF THE CYCLONE. THE ECENS MEAN HAS SHOWNHIGH SKILL AT THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH SURFACE PRESSURES, AND SEEMSTO OFTEN ARRIVE AT A STABLE SOLUTION A DAY OR SO SOONER THAN MUCHOF THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.THE EAST-COAST CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LATE-SEASONHEAVY SNOWFALL OVER A WIDE SWATH OF REAL ESTATE FROM VIRGINIA TONEW ENGLAND; THAT IS A GENERALITY AT THIS POINT. MUCH REMAINS INTERMS OF REFINING THE FORECAST STATE BY STATE. ANOTHER HIGH-IMPACTFACTOR WILL BE THE POWERFUL WINDS GENERATED BY THIS SPRAWLING,INTENSE CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS, BEACH BATTERY, COASTALFLOODING, AND SO FORTH. AGAIN, AT THIS POINT, SUCH SENSIBLEWEATHER EFFECTS ARE SIMPLY ATTENDANT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUCH ASTORM.

[superjames1992]

I thought the GFS was solid.  You tend to want it to be S/E like that at this point in the game.  No doubt I'm using some weenie soothing logic, but still.  I suppose the amplification-happy 12z Canadian being a late-bloomer and east might give it some credence, though.

 

I'm still unsure about whether the 12z Euro's bomb idea is a likely one.  No doubt the Euro is going to be the model of choice given the setup, but it's going to take a lot to go right to get that result.  Nevertheless, the ensembles are pretty much in lock-step, so I suppose it's got a good shot at verifying.  It would certainly be the most likely to produce a big dog, though it also brings more P-type issues into play, especially for those S/E.  It might work out well for I-40/I-85, though (or may not).

[griteater]

Canadian is a late bloomer again, but the trough is sharper and sfc low really strengthens off the SE coast to 987mb a good bit off Wilmington.  Seems to look pretty good for Raleigh down to Florence on the black and white images...good night

[superjames1992]

Yeah, the Canadian is much, much better.  Great for Raleigh and halfway decent snows all the way to the foothills.  It's a late-bloomer and could be better for some, but it's an improvement over the 12z run.

 

Raleigh is crushed and Greensboro does quite well, too.  Charlotte looks decent.

 

The WeatherBell clown, which tends to be fairly accurate for the Canadian (knock on wood), is around 5" for GSO, 9-10" for RDU, and ~3" for CLT.  RDU is on the dividing line, though.  Looks like the area from Rockingham to Durham is in the bulls eye area.  PGV looks like all-rain.  FAY is borderline, but probably sees some flakes.  Everyone from roughly Gastonia to Mt. Airy and eastwards to E NC sees >2" of snow, per the clown.

[superjames1992]

The Canadian also brings in the motherload of cold air after the storm.  Much of NC falls into the low to mid teens on the morning of 3/27 with snowpack.  850s are in the -14C range for some.  You know, just your typical late March weather...

[GaWx]

  Most aren't going to like the 0Z Euro as it is more suppressed as of hour 96. I'm merely a messenger. The 500 mb flow is less WSWerly/drier.

 

Edit: night night.

[superjames1992]

I should have went to bed before the Euro, LOL...

 

It's about 100 miles SE of the position at 12z at hr 108 and it's definitely a late-bloomer.  The only areas that really get precip are east of I-95 and it seems to be too warm there.

 

With all that being said, I'd still rather have it swing wide right than start going inland already.  I feel like wide right is a battle we can win.

 

EDIT: Actually, looks like much of NC/VA get some mood flakes as it swings wide right way out to sea.  No "historic Nor'easter" this run, DT.  We shall see what happens.  I don't think it's a terrible run.  I am much more worried about this being too far N/W and raining on us than missing us to the S/E at this point, to be honest.

 

EDIT #2: Looks like it heads NE and scraps NYC and Cape Cod.  It's D5... it will change.  The ensembles will be interesting in the morning.

 

I think I'm starting to get model-watching fatigue from the last couple months of non-stop wintry action.

[NCSNOW]

Stay tuned: Models will sort it out over the weekend:

 

STILL...NED TO STRESS THAT THE S/WS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS POTENTIAL
WINTRY EVENT HAS YET TO BE SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
THUS...COULD SEE BIG CHANGES IN MODEL GUIDANCE LATER THIS WEEKEND.
PLAN TO CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY.

IN WAKE OF EXITING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT BLUSTERY AND VERY
CHILLY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SFC HIGH
SETTLING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO
FALL WELL INTO THE 20S. MODEST TEMP RECOVERY EXPECTED THURSDAY AS
SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

[POWERSTROKE]

Every storm this year has produced more than models show also they have all came farther west as we get closer. I like where its at now as I am sure it will come farther west and have more moisture than its showing. Either way its spring so it will be bonus in matter what. I figure it will be in comparison to Feb storm. Most snows in March are big if all snow

[packbacker]

I should have went to bed before the Euro, LOL...

It's about 100 miles SE of the position at 12z at hr 108 and it's definitely a late-bloomer. The only areas that really get precip are east of I-95 and it seems to be too warm there.

With all that being said, I'd still rather have it swing wide right than start going inland already. I feel like wide right is a battle we can win.

EDIT: Actually, looks like much of NC/VA get some mood flakes as it swings wide right way out to sea. No "historic Nor'easter" this run, DT. We shall see what happens. I don't think it's a terrible run. I am much more worried about this being too far N/W and raining on us than missing us to the S/E at this point, to be honest.

EDIT #2: Looks like it heads NE and scraps NYC and Cape Cod. It's D5... it will change. The ensembles will be interesting in the morning.

I think I'm starting to get model-watching fatigue from the last couple months of non-stop wintry action.

Your a nut, can't believe your staying up. The Euro OP run as you pointed out did suck, pretty big shift from it's 12z run, everything was much more progressive, it didn't dig nearly as far south, although I am not sure if that was due to the Euro hanging back more SS energy, because it did and thus the SS energy that did eject was weaker. Hopefully just a blip run, but that wasn't good to see this morning. The 0z Euro ENS mean, not surprisingly, did shift east and weaker from it's 12z run. The mean snow for GSO is now a little under 2" and for RDU it's a little over 2". CLT is a little over an 1".

Edit: As soon as JB posted this storm is coming west the Euro goes weak and east. LOL

[WXinCanton]

Every storm this year has produced more than models show also they have all came farther west as we get closer. I like where its at now as I am sure it will come farther west and have more moisture than its showing. Either way its spring so it will be bonus in matter what. I figure it will be in comparison to Feb storm. Most snows in March are big if all snow

  True, but the trend of pushing this SE has to stop pronto or it won't matter if it jogs NW in the day or two before it gets here

[SnowNiner]

This just doesn't seem to me to be a true SE storm IMO.  It does not get cranking in TX, LA and move east like most true SE gulf storms do.  It really materializes more over the FL panhandle.  That's just too late to get most of the SE involved I think.  Even the good hits shown on the models for this only showed 6 hours of precip or so before it scoots east (on the GFS anyway).  That's a recipe for a glancing blow I think at best for the piedmont.  

 

Not to mention the warm surface temps...this storm is just meh for me.  Congrats to the MA though, what a year they've had! Hopefully we get that kind of winter next year. 

[Pilotwx]

The west trend will come back as long as there is a storm. Triad from GSO to Raleigh, Charlotte , Greenville Spartingburg on east I think stand the best chance for a big snow with this set-up. I think those of us West of 85 might get some token flakes but with such a strong high the storm at this point would have a hard time making it inland to give the west a big snow . If the High is weaker than this can change with a more Westerly track.

[GaWx]

This just doesn't seem to me to be a true SE storm IMO. It does not get cranking in TX, LA and move east like most true SE gulf storms do. It really materializes more over the FL panhandle. That's just too late to get most of the SE involved I think. Even the good hits shown on the models for this only showed 6 hours of precip or so before it scoots east (on the GFS anyway). That's a recipe for a glancing blow I think at best for the piedmont.

Not to mention the warm surface temps...this storm is just meh for me. Congrats to the MA though, what a year they've had! Hopefully we get that kind of winter next year.

I'll take this kind of winter again any day. It has been a very exciting winter down here in GA storm wise and up and down temperaturewise. There hardly has been a dull period . For ATL, I'd take 6" of snow and sleet anytime as that's three times the average and a pretty rare occurrence. Plus there was ZR in both ATL and in SAV. The sleet in ATL was very enjoyable. SAV also had some sleet! These are rare things.

I'm by no means giving up on the 3/24-5 potential by the way as it is still pretty early. However, I'd want things to trend back by Sunday at the latest.

[packbacker]

  True, but the trend of pushing this SE has to stop pronto or it won't matter if it jogs NW in the day or two before it gets here

 

The trend this winter, IMO, is for the storm in the 3-5 day range to tick south, the PV has dominated all winter and it's been stronger than most models had progged, but now we are in end of March though, do the same trends apply?  Not sure yet.  The winter storms that affected the MA this month were affecting the NE at 5 days or so out and then it started to trickle south jackpotting the MA.  This storm is completely different, we have three pieces of energy trying to phase, so not shocking that at 5 days out we are not seeing consistent runs.  We won't know squat until Sunday, which is what most folks are saying.  

[griteater]

Yeah, a non digging wave will put an end to this one in a hurry.  For the Euro Ens, that was a substantial jog east.  UKMet was east too.  Let's see where we go from here...gotta have the ridge spike and shortwave dig out west

[superjames1992]

This just doesn't seem to me to be a true SE storm IMO. It does not get cranking in TX, LA and move east like most true SE gulf storms do. It really materializes more over the FL panhandle. That's just too late to get most of the SE involved I think. Even the good hits shown on the models for this only showed 6 hours of precip or so before it scoots east (on the GFS anyway). That's a recipe for a glancing blow I think at best for the piedmont.

Not to mention the warm surface temps...this storm is just meh for me. Congrats to the MA though, what a year they've had! Hopefully we get that kind of winter next year.

Wasn't the 3/6 monster storm a late-bloomer that didn't get going until the FL panhandle?

[superjames1992]

Your a nut, can't believe your staying up. The Euro OP run as you pointed out did suck, pretty big shift from it's 12z run, everything was much more progressive, it didn't dig nearly as far south, although I am not sure if that was due to the Euro hanging back more SS energy, because it did and thus the SS energy that did eject was weaker. Hopefully just a blip run, but that wasn't good to see this morning. The 0z Euro ENS mean, not surprisingly, did shift east and weaker from it's 12z run. The mean snow for GSO is now a little under 2" and for RDU it's a little over 2". CLT is a little over an 1".

Edit: As soon as JB posted this storm is coming west the Euro goes weak and east. LOL

Well, I didn't stay up just for the Euro, haha. I was up, anyways, though that probably makes me crazy in any case!

[FLweather]

  True, but the trend of pushing this SE has to stop pronto or it won't matter if it jogs NW in the day or two before it gets here

   

 

This statement made me lol. What a gem.

[Brick Tamland]

Yeah, the Canadian is much, much better.  Great for Raleigh and halfway decent snows all the way to the foothills.  It's a late-bloomer and could be better for some, but it's an improvement over the 12z run.

 

Raleigh is crushed and Greensboro does quite well, too.  Charlotte looks decent.

 

The WeatherBell clown, which tends to be fairly accurate for the Canadian (knock on wood), is around 5" for GSO, 9-10" for RDU, and ~3" for CLT.  RDU is on the dividing line, though.  Looks like the area from Rockingham to Durham is in the bulls eye area.  PGV looks like all-rain.  FAY is borderline, but probably sees some flakes.  Everyone from roughly Gastonia to Mt. Airy and eastwards to E NC sees >2" of snow, per the clown.

 

That would be incredible. But even just a couple of inches this time of year would be great. Hope we can get the Euro to back this up, especially the Euro ensemble. WxSouth was really bullish last night, and even RAH. WxSouth said on facebook last night that I'll see plenty of snow Tuesday.