Brick Tamland Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Cold Rain - Euro already a cold rain for RDU, LOL, didn't take long, at least we had a quick death instead of getting strung out for the next 4-5 days. Nice storm though, really like this for people west of 85, including GSP, N-GA. People that got hit with the early March storm look good for this, except more snow this time (knock on wood). I think this may get deeper, more precip…. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro already above 0C at 850 for with 2m at 33F. When was the last time a winter storm within 5 days trended colder for us? I don't remember one. I don't remember one for the upper levels. The lower levels have trended a little colder a couple of times this year. In this case, we'll need to see quick evidence of that NE high hanging in or strengthening a bit, if we want to see the same result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Obviously, the farther N/W you are, the better your chances. I thought the Euro was a good run as we still have the general idea down, granted, the Triad is in one of the better spots on this board outside the mountains (barring an easterly track like the CMC). It seems like the theme this year has been for HPs to hang on longer than expected. On the other hand, cold air has generally taken longer to filter in. Thankfully, this isnt a cold chasing the moisture situation. I'm all-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Raleigh Office is bullish MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER EVENT ISUNFOLDING FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HYBRID DAMMING INPLACE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF A MILLER-A COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE FLORIDA COAST WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVENORTHEASTWARD...JUST OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. MODELS ARE IN VERYGOOD AGREEMENT FOR BEING THIS FAR OUT AS FAR AS TRACK AND STRENGTHOF THE LOW ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO SHORE. WETBULB ZERO LINES SET UP ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER FOR MOST OF THE EVENT.FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AND VERY GOOD LIFT THROUGHTHE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE. AT THIS POINT WOULD THIS WOULD SUGGEST ALLSNOW FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THE SOUTHERN TIER POSSIBLYEXPERIENCING MIXED P-TYPES...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY.GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR WAY OVERBLOWN...WEIGHTED TOWARDSCLIMATOLOGY...WILL TREND DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S FOR HIGHS BUT ITAPPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WONT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S ONTUESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP TUESDAY EVENING WITH LOWS INTHE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES. I think the part about the guidence temperatures appearing way overblown is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I think this is key. What? That RAH wrote a bullish discussion? Ok, saw your clarification. Maybe so. HOPEFULLY so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Obviously, the farther N/W you are, the better your chances. I thought the Euro was a good run as we still have the general idea down, granted, the Triad is in one of the better spots on this board outside the mountains. It seems like the theme this year has been for HPs to hang on longer than expected. On the other hand, cold air has generally taken longer to filter in. Thankfully, this isnt a cold chasing the moisture situation. I'm all-in. Your area looks perfect as always It's a beautiful look on the 5h vort maps, day 4 some SS energy gets shunted east, although some energy gets left behind and then some energy is diving over the pac ridge and phase with it on day 4, then some polar jet energy comes in on the backside of this and the storm explodes, it's such a progressive flow though, only thing stopping it from being truly historic, but still going to be big, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreezeWarning1 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I think this is key. Keep in mind who wrote this. I'll just say this: RE is not a winter wx specialist and I disagree with much of his assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 That is not what I expected to see out of them. I have noticed several storms show up this winter in the 5-8 day range where 850s look good for a lot of areas. Then, as we get closer, we lose the 850s (some of us do) but the lower levels trend colder (usually due to the NE high hanging in longer), which has resulted in more sleet/zr mess. Any thoughts on the trend with the 850s? Or maybe I'm making that up? My opinion is that the Euro/GFS combo is close to what we get. I think it's going to be tough for the trough to dig sharply enough and quick enough where the sfc low is pulled back on the coast or inland of the coast, and think that the sfc low instead will be off the coast. I think the GSP to CLT to RDU corridor will be a close call with both sfc temps and temps aloft...but looking good in HKY to Triad north and west...obviously long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I don't remember one for the upper levels. The lower levels have trended a little colder a couple of times this year. In this case, we'll need to see quick evidence of that NE high hanging in or strengthening a bit, if we want to see the same result. Agreed, wouldn't be to worried if we just had to worry about 2m's at day 5 showing as 33-34F but with 850's hovering around 0C that ain't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Looks decent for parts of NC. Looking at the Euro and the GFS, there looks to be way to much to overcome for us further south in N. GA and SC. BL is going to wreak havoc with 850's right around 0 or a smidge below. Maybe it will trend colder, but that is a serious long shot IMO. Fun to track though as this looks to be the last one of the season, hopefully some folks in NC can reel this one in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Agreed, wouldn't be to worried if we just had to worry about 2m's at day 5 showing as 33-34F but with 850's hovering around 0C that ain't good. Yep, marginal 850's with a crappy BL temps is not a winning combo for frozen precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro Ens is in. Pretty bang up model agreement from 12z with GFS/Euro/Euro Ens. On Euro Ens, sfc low is just off the coast and looks stronger off Hatteras. GSP to CLT to RDU corridor hangs on below freezing at 850mb throughout. Trough digs a bit more into the south central states...good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 This run of Euro Ens has sfc low closer to the Carolina coast, but it's still off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro Ens is in. Pretty bang up model agreement from 12z with GFS/Euro/Euro Ens. On Euro Ens, sfc low is just off the coast and looks stronger off Hatteras. GSP to CLT to RDU corridor hangs on below freezing at 850mb throughout. Trough digs a bit more into the south central states...good run Can you make out surface temps on the ENS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Can you make out surface temps on the ENS? Not on maps I have. Later they will have ens mean team graphs come out for a lot of cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 OMG. People on Facebook are saying "They're calling for a foot of snow in our area". Where are they getting this info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 OMG. People on Facebook are saying "They're calling for a foot of snow in our area". Where are they getting this info? Here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 DT calling the 12z euro ensemble mean a major/historic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Check out @RyanMaue's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/446747432966057984 The euro ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The Euro ENS mean is almost identical to the operational run. Very good agreement. Of course, the low is a tad weaker given it's a mean. The low tracks from offshore of Savannah all the way up the east coast. Pretty good track for central/western NC. The EPS mean snowfall totals went way up at 12z according to the WeatherBell bar graphs. GSO is now close to 3.5", which is pretty good for D5. Areas N/W are a little higher. RIC - 5.25" (Richmond) TNB - 4.5" (Boone) ROA - 4.2" (Roanoke) MWK - 4" (Mount Airy) GSO - 3.5" (Greensboro) RDU - 2.5" (Raleigh-Durham) CLT - 2" (Charlotte) GSP - 1.6" (Greenville, SC) PGV - 1.5" (Greenville, NC) CAE - 0.5" (Columbia) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The Euro ENS mean is almost identical to the operational run. Very good agreement. Of course, the low is a tad weaker given it's a mean. The low tracks from offshore of Savannah all the way up the east coast. Pretty good track for central/western NC. The EPS mean snowfall totals went way up at 12z according to the WeatherBell bar graphs. GSO is now close to 3.5", which is pretty good for D5. Areas N/W are a little higher. RIC - 5.25" (Richmond) TNB - 4.5" (Boone) ROA - 4.2" (Roanoke) MWK - 4" (Mount Airy) GSO - 3.5" (Greensboro) RDU - 2.5" (Raleigh-Durham) CLT - 2" (Charlotte) GSP - 1.6" (Greenville, SC) PGV - 1.5" (Greenville, NC) CAE - 0.5" (Columbia) Do you have an AVL total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I could be wrong, but I think there is some precip on Sunday that is part of that 1". For Tues, I've got 0.4-0.5 for Charlotte, 0.5-0.6 for Triad, 0.8 for Raleigh (map estimating) You're correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Do you have an AVL total? 3.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 EPS control run is a big hit from NC all the way up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 DT calling the 12z euro ensemble mean a major/historic event. Thanks for ....ALEETING.... me. Keep in mind, DT uses "historic" as often as politicians visiting a battlefield. I'll admit there could be a nice storm setting up. But to use historic at this time is a stretch without support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 One hopeful thing for KCAE is it has gone from 0, to 2, to 3, to now like 10 or 11 members with Winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Thanks for ....ALEETING.... me. Keep in mind, DT uses "historic" as often as politicians visiting a battlefield. I'll admit there could be a nice storm setting up. But to use historic at this time is a stretch without support. Brad P. said the same thing in his video earlier. About it being the end of March or something of that nature. I agree though; Definitely too early for all of that talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The 18Z GFS is colder than earlier GFS runs and now gives ATL-AHN precip. with 850's below 0C. If the precip. were to be heavy enough, I bet it would be mainly snow. It has 2 meter temp.'s that would verify too warm, verbatim, should the precip. end up to be ample. This run gives ATL-AHN ~0.15-.20". This was still another very nice baby step for ATL-AHN. The challenge for this area is to get enough precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The Euro ENS mean is almost identical to the operational run. Very good agreement. Of course, the low is a tad weaker given it's a mean. The low tracks from offshore of Savannah all the way up the east coast. Pretty good track for central/western NC. The EPS mean snowfall totals went way up at 12z according to the WeatherBell bar graphs. GSO is now close to 3.5", which is pretty good for D5. Areas N/W are a little higher. RIC - 5.25" (Richmond) TNB - 4.5" (Boone) ROA - 4.2" (Roanoke) MWK - 4" (Mount Airy) GSO - 3.5" (Greensboro) RDU - 2.5" (Raleigh-Durham) CLT - 2" (Charlotte) GSP - 1.6" (Greenville, SC) PGV - 1.5" (Greenville, NC) CAE - 0.5" (Columbia) Do you have FAY totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 18z GFS from quick glance does look more wintry for KCAE based off 850 only though. Soundings later~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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