griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Canadian is another possible scenario...much like it's last run...a late bloomer that favors eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The 12z CMC looks like an I-95 special. 2m temperatures are marginal, but still. The 850 0C isotherm runs from Florence, SC to Elizabeth City, NC or so. Raleigh gets an inch or two. GSO gets flurries with temperatures in the low 30s and 850s in the -6C range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Canadian is another possible scenario...much like it's last run...a late bloomer that favors eastern NC Yeah, that would suck for people that want snow down here, something that scrapes E-NC and then destroys the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 True, but none of the previous ones were trying to phase 3 pieces of energy, this potential storm is trying, which is why it has a chance to be huge, small chance but just maybe. Your are correct. It seems like there are usually only a couple of triple phase threats per year. Maybe this one can thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The CMC also has a superclipper the following day that gets GSO, etc. pretty good with 850s of -7-(-)10C and surface temperatures in the 20s. Looks like it drops about 4" of snow in GSO and a maximum of close to 6" south of Raleigh. Late March = the dead of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Nice blog entry and video from Brad Panovich: http://wxbrad.com/winter-storm-potential-next-week/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Nice blog entry and video from Brad Panovich: http://wxbrad.com/winter-storm-potential-next-week/ It basically ends up being: "I don't know." Pretty much. What is up w/ that software he's using that looks like MSPAINT is putting the precip type maps out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The CMC also has a superclipper the following day that gets GSO, etc. pretty good with 850s of -7-(-)10C and surface temperatures in the 20s. Looks like it drops about 4" of snow in GSO and a maximum of close to 6" south of Raleigh. Late March = the dead of winter. GFS was showing a second punch coming Wednesday, too. Wonder if that is going to make it hard for the models to get a hole od exactly what will happen if we have two systems coming in back to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro report, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro report, anyone? It's just starting to roll out. Daylight Savings Time is wreaking havoc on our model watching. Pushes everything back an hour. I will never make it through the 0z runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 There's a myriad of options showing on the 12z GFS Ensemble members - some similar to the op, some suppressed or late bloomers, some riding the coast as bigger storms and warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Big storm on the 12z euro but again timing and 2m temps suck. Even 850's are a little further west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 How far west and south are the 850's on the Euro? What is the general location of the Rain/snow line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 How far west and south are the 850's on the Euro? What is the general location of the Rain/snow line? Just eyeballing I'd say it starts as all snow for most in NC at hr 120...At hr 126 the 850 line runs from around Durham, NC to Charlotte, NC but 2m temps are warm at that time. At 132 the 850 line moves back east as the LP goes by changing a lot back to snow. EDIT: Sorry, I forgot my SC and Ga folks...At hr 120 far NW SC and far N. Ga might be seeing snow. It's very close. At 126 850's are cold enough for NW SC and N. Ga but again 2m temps don't look good and the heavier precip has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Serious cold though on the euro, hour 144, 850's lookin for oranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I was looking at the last few runs of nogaps. Based off of the thickness lines. Sundays event is a decent hit for much of NC. The other system has trended further south. Prior to that was all rain for most of NC/VA. Latest run is a juicy Miller A but off the thickness lines all rain most of NC expect along the VA border into VA. Luckly its the nogaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Here's 850mb warmest panel on Euro (with focus on Carolinas). In big picture, it looks a lot like the UKMet and GFS with the digging wave, 850mb low track, and sfc track a bit off the coast. Canadian looks like the outlier from the 12z runs. Long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Here's 850mb warmest panel on Euro. In big picture, it looks a lot like the UKMet and GFS with the digging wave, 850mb low track, and sfc track a bit off the coast. Canadian looks like the outlier from the 12z runs. Long way to go I agree grit...I'd really like to see this speed up some while we have some colder temps and during night time hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Alan's Latest Check out @RaleighWx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/446717517000871937 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 12z EURO has around 1" qpf from the Triad to Raleigh. All snow in triad, but clown only has 5 to 6" since surface temps are just above freezing for part of event. Verbatim, we're talking about a heavy wet snow here. Crazy winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 12z EURO has around 1" qpf from the Triad to Raleigh. All snow in triad, but clown only has 5 to 6" since surface temps are just above freezing for part of event. Verbatim, we're talking about a heavy wet snow here. Crazy winter! That would be very low snow ratios... a wet paste. Something along the lines of 5:1 instead of the typical dead of winter 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 12z EURO has around 1" qpf from the Triad to Raleigh. All snow in triad, but clown only has 5 to 6" since surface temps are just above freezing for part of event. Verbatim, we're talking about a heavy wet snow here. Crazy winter! I could be wrong, but I think there is some precip on Sunday that is part of that 1". For Tues, I've got 0.4-0.5 for Charlotte, 0.5-0.6 for Triad, 0.8 for Raleigh (map estimating) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Found this while I was on a scavenger hunt: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ironic really, most of the storms we had recently the CAD really helped give us the frozen precipitation at the surface, even though the 850s were to our north. For this storm, we've got the cold 850s but due to the HIGH up north being off shore there doesn't seem to be much CAD signature, thus our surface temps stink. Figures. But hey, late March if anything frozen flies it'll be pretty neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Raleigh Office is bullish MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER EVENT ISUNFOLDING FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HYBRID DAMMING INPLACE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF A MILLER-A COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE FLORIDA COAST WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVENORTHEASTWARD...JUST OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. MODELS ARE IN VERYGOOD AGREEMENT FOR BEING THIS FAR OUT AS FAR AS TRACK AND STRENGTHOF THE LOW ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO SHORE. WETBULB ZERO LINES SET UP ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER FOR MOST OF THE EVENT.FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AND VERY GOOD LIFT THROUGHTHE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE. AT THIS POINT WOULD THIS WOULD SUGGEST ALLSNOW FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THE SOUTHERN TIER POSSIBLYEXPERIENCING MIXED P-TYPES...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY.GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR WAY OVERBLOWN...WEIGHTED TOWARDSCLIMATOLOGY...WILL TREND DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S FOR HIGHS BUT ITAPPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WONT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S ONTUESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP TUESDAY EVENING WITH LOWS INTHE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Cold Rain - Euro already a cold rain for RDU, LOL, didn't take long, at least we had a quick death instead of getting strung out for the next 4-5 days. Nice storm though, really like this for people west of 85, including GSP, N-GA. People that got hit with the early March storm look good for this, except more snow this time (knock on wood). I think this may get deeper, more precip…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Raleigh Office is bullish That is not what I expected to see out of them. I have noticed several storms show up this winter in the 5-8 day range where 850s look good for a lot of areas. Then, as we get closer, we lose the 850s (some of us do) but the lower levels trend colder (usually due to the NE high hanging in longer), which has resulted in more sleet/zr mess. Any thoughts on the trend with the 850s? Or maybe I'm making that up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Found this while I was on a scavenger hunt: Kind or looks like accuweather's map from yesterday? Think this trends a little more NW too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 That is not what I expected to see out of them. I have noticed several storms show up this winter in the 5-8 day range where 850s look good for a lot of areas. Then, as we get closer, we lose the 850s (some of us do) but the lower levels trend colder (usually due to the NE high hanging in longer), which has resulted in more sleet/zr mess. Any thoughts on the trend with the 850s? Or maybe I'm making that up? Euro already above 0C at 850 for with 2m at 33F. When was the last time a winter storm within 5 days trended colder for us? I don't remember one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Cold Rain - Euro already a cold rain for RDU, LOL, didn't take long, at least we had a quick death instead of getting strung out for the next 4-5 days. Nice storm though, really like this for people west of 85, including GSP, N-GA. People that got hit with the early March storm look good for this, except more snow this time (knock on wood). I think this may get deeper, more precip…. Yeah, I would liked to have seen the Euro maintain the cold look. Trending warmer, even slightly, right now doesn't make me happy....but I guess it could be noise, though. Deeper is kind of a double-edge sword. On one hand, it can draw cold air in more effectively, if there is cold air to tap. But on the other hand, you also tend to see multiple warm layers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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