superjames1992 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Thank you for the statistics, Larry. I remember the 3/30/2003 storm. It was around 80 degrees or something like that they day before and by morning snow started mixing in with the rain and it changed over to snow and snowed a good portion of the mid-morning. I think it only got up to like 40 degrees or something that day. Whatever fell never stuck to the roads or anything, but it was cool. Just two days later and it would have been an April storm! --- I get a feeling the CIP's guys are going in and changing the analogs around just to tease us. First, 1/25/00 endlessly shows up and now 3/13/93. I've seen 3/13/93 earlier this season a few times, too, though I think this is the first time it's shown up as the top analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Did Greensboro miss out on the 83 storm? Looks like Charlotte and Raleigh was hit hard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Did Greensboro miss out on the 83 storm? Looks like Charlotte and Raleigh was hit hard? Yep, shutout just about with only a trace from 0.01" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Yep, shutout. Wow! It must have really been a "Southern Slider." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Wow! It must have really been a "Southern Slider." Your area did a little better, though. Suicidal cutoff on the north side... Good storm for Raleigh, Charlotte, and of course Atlanta, Greenville, etc. ------- BTW, looks like RAH has added rain/snow to the zone forecasts. I've now got rain/snow for Monday night and Tuesday. You know, just your typical late March weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 This HWO from MHX really blows me away since this is not like them at all to honk on something like this in this time frame given the climo etc...... HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC432 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-210845-MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-432 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL INVADE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAYNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHTEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEVELOPING LOWPRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILLSPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY INPLACE...A PERIOD OF MIXED OR ALL WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTEDACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTOTUESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS THREAT WILL BEGREATEST OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Your area did okay, though. Suicidal cutoff on the north side... Great storm I was only 11 but got pictures of the snow with flowers and some trees had leaves out already.....I would love to see this kind of storm again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 EPS looks like crap for KCAE. Not a fan. KCAE: HE TIMING ISSUE IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE OF THE COLD SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH ADVECTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH COULD INTRODUCE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY PERSISTENT FORECAST WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND KEEPING ALL PRECIPITATION TYPE LIQUID RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 GFS looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Alot of precip knockin on the door at hour 126 on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 GFS looking good Nice storm on 12z gfs but a little concerned about timing and 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Here you go Cold R. The Ohio Valley low will surely keep you unenthused. Looks like WPC is going with the storm hugging the coast a bit You're right. I do not like that OV low. At. All. But maybe it won't be that big of a negative factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Gfs looks weak still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Yeah, I think the 12z GFS looked weak too. Maybe 6 hours of precip for the NC peidmont. Looked pretty cold though, and a nice track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Nice storm on 12z gfs but a little concerned about timing and 2m temps. No wiggle room with temps, for sure. I do like how the heights are falling in the TN Valley out ahead of the storm to keep the temps aloft in check Gfs looks weak still. But we beg for storms that look like that here in the lowlands Wouldn't be surprised at all to see more precip building across TN and N Bama / GA with that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I like where I sit with the heaviest precip being to my south and east at this point. In March and late March at that, this thing has no where to go except NW as we inch closer to the event, per climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Northern portions of SC/Upstate may see some snow out of this per 12z GFS. Meh. Need it further South. Right now, big hit for CLT etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Using point and click sounding on Dupage, I've got Charlotte as all snow. Raleigh is similar, but looks above freezing in the lowest layer so it's close...time of day is key too as rdu mentioned. Looks like 33-34 and all or mostly snow in SC upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Not a bad run. Still a little further east for those of us in the western half of the state, but not bad, as is (and, frankly, if we want all-snow, it's a good track). 2m temperatures are iffy further east, verbatim. Looks like the precip arrives in the middle of the day, which probably isn't ideal. 850s are plenty cold, though. Surface temperatures are fine in GSO, for example, though (30-32). RDU is more iffy (32-34). CLT looks like 32-33. I'd take it and run. It kind of has that look where a lot of the snowed in areas get 2-4" of paste (assuming ratios suck) with limited, if any, road stickage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Not a bad run. Still a little further east for those of us in the western half of the state, but not bad, as is. 2m temperatures are iffy further east, verbatim. Looks like the precip arrives in the late afternoon, which probably isn't ideal. 850s are plenty cold, though. Surface temperatures are fine in GSO, for example, though. RDU is more iffy (33-34). I'd take it and run. Slushy!! I agree, we need it to hug the coast just a bit more I think. Honestly it looks like it intensifies too late in general. Need it stronger in the gulf. Temps need to be like the 6Z run for something other than slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 850 low is kind of diffuse, but tracks from Birmingham to Myrtle Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 We need that track about 50 more miles to the east to really put the coastal plains in the game.. looks a line from Fayetteville to rocky mount is the sweet spot right now. . As we know alot can change.. but most models have the same idea on the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 UKMet looks a lot like the GFS with the coarse maps. Trough digs into the MS Valley...Sfc low is in north Florida Tues at 12z, then strengthens and is well off the Jersey coast 12z Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Definitly less snow amounts compared to the 6z. 850s look great but surface temps would be around or just above freezing for many. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=12&fhour=138¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Nice run of the goofus could be better but still time. GFS says too warm at 0z last night. But 6z and 12z razor sharp for the VA border counties for Sundays event too. Euro says it aint happening. But I think the euro out on dinner break. Nam is crap beyond 48 but continues to come further south with Sundays event. Next 24-36 hours is going to make or break Sundays event. Euro has been consistant and so has the Goofus. I think if setups the way I think it will... Sunday is going to be game day too for the northern half of NC. Rain to Wintry mix of sleet/snow/zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 12 CMC looks to be further S and E at hr 123. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Isn't there two rounds of moisture.. Over running Sunday night and a low pressure slip for tuesdaym Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Isn't there two rounds of moisture.. Over running Sunday night and a low pressure slip for tuesdaym Correct. Considering that it appears to be overunning don't think the models are handling it well. But the surface front should pass ahead of the moisture and CAA. The moisture and cold should arrive about the same time. So what is being modeled by goofus and euro is likely not too accurate atleast for the northern half and N/W half of NC. The surface front and Lp is to the south and east why moisture builds in with the cold air. Also probably not being model correctly is the big sprawling HP with ridge axis expanding east of the Apps. Which in a sense cold air will be working its way in on a backdoor cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 How many times has 1993 shown up in the analogs this year? None of them have come close in reality. True, but none of the previous ones were trying to phase 3 pieces of energy, this potential storm is trying, which is why it has a chance to be huge, small chance but just maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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