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3-24 to 3-26 possible winter storm?

Rankin5150

By Rankin5150,
in Southeastern States

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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted

From NWS Raleigh:

 

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...

...POSSIBLE WINTRY EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK...


MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MINOR S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
INTERACT WITH A STRONGER S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...ATTEMPTING TO
PHASE OVER THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS ACTION
WILL AID TO INDUCE RAPID AND STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF
STREAM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SCENARIO SHAPING
UP TO BE A MILLER A EVENT WHICH SUPPORTS WELL DEFINED CORRIDORS OF
PRECIP.

WHILE THE PARENT HIGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE WILL BE
MIGRATORY...ENOUGH COOL DRY AIR WILL BE DEPOSITED OVER CENTRAL NC TO
INITIATE A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP.
CURRENTLY...PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND SFC WET BULB TEMPS SUPPORT
WINTRY PRECIP AT THE PRECIP ONSET LATE MONDAY NIGHT (WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT) INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES AS WELL
AS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
ENOUGH SATURATION AND LIFT INTO THE FAVORABLE ICE NUCLEATION REGION
TO SUPPORT DENDRITE GROWTH. BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE WINTRY
PRECIP...BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTIONS OF THE SFC LOW TRACK AND
THERMAL PROFILE...WILL BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OR AREAS WEST OF I-95.
NEED TO STRESS THAT THE S/WS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS POTENTIAL WINTER
EVENT HAVE YET TO BE SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR NETWORK...SO A LOT MAY
CHANGE ONCE SYSTEMS GET SAMPLED. HOWEVER...BASED ON MODELS
CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL EVENT...PLAN TO MAKE MENTION IN
THE HWO TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS AND STRESS THAT CHANGES WILL LIKELY
OCCURS ONCE WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. IN THE FORECAST WILL MENTION
RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE PIEDMONT EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS TUESDAY ABOUT 3-5 DEGREE FROM EARLIER FORECAST.

GFS DOES APPEAR TOO DEEP WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NEXT WEEK...ABOUT
100M LOWER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. IF GFS WERE TO VERIFY ON WEDNESDAY...COULD SEE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WINTRY PRECIP AND COLDER TEMPS THAN FORECAST.
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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

Can't get over the amount of cold air the models are showing. The air mass is certainly cold enough for a major winter event if we can get the precip in here. Usually you could bet the NW trend at this range, but this one looks to stay suppressed. Bottom line, it's a pretty good set up. Especially for late March. 

I can't either. Think it would be Jan instead of late March. :blink:

 

I know Robert is expecting it to stay suppressed. Very well could and honestly I like my chances of being all snow that a way.

The NW trend if it does occur will not be realized till Sunday or roughly 48 hours prior to the snowstorm. What that cold air does Sunday will make or break folks on this storm further south and east.

 

The thing that concerns me the most is the models bark is worse than its bite. We've seen it a couple times this year where the models have deep penetrating cold air masses that doesn't materialize any too good to leave folks up ship creek without a paddle.

 

So honestly not trying to get too religious... but folks in eastern/southern NC, SC, N GA hoping to get in on this snow better hope and pray the cold is true and strong.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Wow, the GFS and Euro both showing a pretty big hit for NC. The trends keep getting better and better. It is just hard to believe it this time of the year, but the last week of March has had some big snows here in the past. Maybe it's just something about this time in March like the last 10 days of January for NC to get big winter storms.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

I can't either. Think it would be Jan instead of late March. :blink:

I know Robert is expecting it to stay suppressed. Very well could and honestly I like my chances of being all snow that a way.

The NW trend if it does occur will not be realized till Sunday or roughly 48 hours prior to the snowstorm. What that cold air does Sunday will make or break folks on this storm further south and east.

The thing that concerns me the most is the models bark is worse than its bite. We've seen it a couple times this year where the models have deep penetrating cold air masses that doesn't materialize any too good to leave folks up ship creek without a paddle.

So honestly not trying to get too religious... but folks in eastern/southern NC, SC, N GA hoping to get in on this snow better hope and pray the cold is true and strong.

We have seen air masses not be as cold when shown a week out behind just a cold front, but most of the cold during storms or wedges has been under estimated during the storm and are usuall 2-3 degrees colder than models were projecting.
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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Very excited about this! However I'm going in with a little caution giving the time of year. I think any totals spit out by the models we probably need to cut in half. It's late March and it will be coming off some warm days. Not too mention it's going to be a wet heavy snow with whatever falls more than likely making ratios pretty low. It's a shame I have such a busy couple of days coming up but I should be a round for a few PBP's!

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Brad Panovich saying he believes there will be some kind of wintry mix event next week but he doesn't believe it's possible for temps to be as cold as the GFS is predicting (20s in mid-afternoon).

 

Why? Just because it's March and it's unusual? It's been pointed out it has happened before here. It's been a long time, but it actually happened a lot here this same time in March in the 70s.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Brad Panovich saying he believes there will be some kind of wintry mix event next week but he doesn't believe it's possible for temps to be as cold as the GFS is predicting (20s in mid-afternoon).

 

It was 29 with snow all afternoon on 3/25/1972 at GSO. They ended up with 3.1" on just 0.24" of liquid due to high ratios/cold 850's.

 

Edit: It was 28-29 all morning on 3/25/74 at GSO with snow til almost noon. They ended up with 4.5" on only 0.39" liquid due to high ratios.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

D to the T has a large write-up on FB...

 

"In the overnight trends on the weather models  early on Thursday morning we can clearly see that ALL  the data has shifted  towards a coastal storm --that is to say  a  Miller A  system or a LOW pressure area coming out of the gulf Mexico.  The trend has been decisive and it shows up on all the models.

 

This is significant because it means that the coastal areas are likely to see more snow than the mountain areas -- ASSUMING  that all this the cold art / temperatures   that the models are shoving into the East Coast Sunday and Monday actually shows up.  But if we assume that to be correct   -and I think it is --then like I said the odds strongly favor a significant late season snowstorm for the coastal areas from central and Eastern North Carolina all way up to Boston and Maine.  A true  I- 95 snowstorm."

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

 

D to the T has a large write-up on FB...

 

"In the overnight trends on the weather models  early on Thursday morning we can clearly see that ALL  the data has shifted  towards a coastal storm --that is to say  a  Miller A  system or a LOW pressure area coming out of the gulf Mexico.  The trend has been decisive and it shows up on all the models.

 

This is significant because it means that the coastal areas are likely to see more snow than the mountain areas -- ASSUMING  that all this the cold art / temperatures   that the models are shoving into the East Coast Sunday and Monday actually shows up.  But if we assume that to be correct   -and I think it is --then like I said the odds strongly favor a significant late season snowstorm for the coastal areas from central and Eastern North Carolina all way up to Boston and Maine.  A true  I- 95 snowstorm."

 

If I lived in Central VA, I'd be super excited about this. In Central/Eastern NC, I'm only excited enough for the small blind. Either way, I'll try not to put everyone to sleep today. :D

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 I can't imagine feeling more excited about a potential 3/24-5 sig. winter event than I do now for the ATL-AHN corridor. The players are out there in progs: moist Miller A and a very cold high in the NE possibly providing some CAD. It may or may not end up as anything significant but the chances are increasing. The last time there was even just a threat for something big there in late March was likely way back in 1983, 31 years ago! It could easily be another 31 years before the next time this area is threatened with a sig. winter event in late March.

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timnc910

timnc910

Posted
Posted

i just found this from nws... definately has my attention

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
432 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-210845-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
432 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL INVADE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...A PERIOD OF MIXED OR ALL WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES WEST OF HIGHWAY 17.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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NCsandhills

NCsandhills

Posted
Posted

Once every 15 years (for CLT) eh? How long has it been for CLT? RDU? GSO? FAY? I'm hoping this Miller A works out well for us down here. But I also wish there would be no more storms to track!! Jesus!! I keep getting distracted from my schoolwork being on amwx all day. Lmao.

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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted

Hi, what is D to the T?  I would like to read the Facebook write up.

Thanks!

 

Dave Tolleris (DT) is a Met from the Richmond area that runs wxrisk.com and has quite a following.  His in-depth posts are pretty good, just don't read his response to questions or comments from others (he doesn't play nice). Here's a link to his post:

 

https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/the-trend-is-your-friend/663229410390987

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Atleast for RDU we average more snow in March then in December.  Over the last 30 years I bet we have had more accumulating snow events in mid-late March than in December.   Although, still don't think this is happening for RDU, still believe we will see something big running up 95.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

 If I lived in Central VA, I'd be super excited about this. In Central/Eastern NC, I'm only excited enough for the small blind. Either way, I'll try not to put everyone to sleep today. :D

 

Here you go Cold R.  The Ohio Valley low will surely keep you unenthused.  Looks like WPC is going with the storm hugging the coast a bit

 

24q0arr.gif 

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Posted
Posted

How many times has 1993 shown up in the analogs this year?  None of them have come close in reality.

 

First time it's showed up as top analog that I can remember.  It's been there a couple times this year but no where near the top.  Me personally, I'd love for it to verify.  Wouldn't mind 2 feet of snow.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Late March measurable wintry precip.:

 

1. GSO:

 

3/30/03: 1.2"

3/23/89: moderate ZR

3/25/74: 4.5"

3/21/73; 1.5"

3/25/72: 3.1"

3/25-6/71: 3.3"

3/20/65: 0.2"

 

 

2. RDU:

 

3/24/83: 7.3"

3/25/74: 2.9"

3/21/73: 0.4"

3/25/72: 2.6"

3/25-6/71: 5.3"

 

 

3. CLT:

 

3/24/83: 10.3"

3/25/74: 1.4"

3/25/72: 3.7"

3/25/71: 5.4"

 

 

4. ATL

 

3/20/96: 0.2"

3/24/83: 7.9"

3/25/71: major ZR

 

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