packbacker Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I wonder how much falls from hr 24-30 on the UKMET. I would suppose there is some, though Plymouth only has six-hour precip available every 12 hours, so you miss half the time. Going to have to wait until meteocentre updates in an hour. All models have come in a tick west and wetter, at this range the RGEM is tough to beat. It's got snow for your area 1" or so. 2m to warm for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 To bad precip doesn't come in 6 hours earlier, would be definitely snow, possibly accumulating on grass/deck. We couldn't time this any worse. But, at least the kids won't miss another day of school, then in itself makes me glad this will be a non event for us. If temps can stay around 35F I think we will see snow, if it's 40F, forget it. Par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Par for the course. Yep, not shocked at all, RDU's luck will turn eventually…maybe not in the next 50 years, but eventually. The GGEM map I posted above is at noon, if that was at 6am we would have quite a mess on our hands for the morning commute, which is good, kids can't miss anymore school, it's getting ridiculous now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Yep, not shocked at all, RDU's luck will turn eventually…maybe not in the next 50 years, but eventually. The GGEM map I posted above is at noon, if that was at 6am we would have quite a mess on our hands for the morning commute, which is good, kids can't miss anymore school, it's getting ridiculous now. Yeah, my son has been out 9 days. I don't ever recall missing that many days of school (although, that's probably just bad memory), growing up in Burlington. We had some decent winters too....better than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Well, we often do see the precip arrive earlier (and leave earlier) than forecasted in these sorts of situations. If that were the case, it would likely help us. I know, I know... wishcasting... Yeah, my son has been out 9 days. I don't ever recall missing that many days of school (although, that's probably just bad memory), growing up in Burlington. We had some decent winters too....better than this one. It is puzzling how Wake County has managed to miss nine days of school for less than 6" of snow. That's ridiculous. Even out here, we were out of school for over a week after January 2000, so I bet Raleigh was out even longer, BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Yeah, my son has been out 9 days. I don't ever recall missing that many days of school (although, that's probably just bad memory), growing up in Burlington. We had some decent winters too....better than this one. Only time I remember missing endless days of school was Feb/March 87, I was in Winston, it snowed like every other week, and a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Well, we often do see the precip arrive earlier (and leave earlier) than forecasted in these sorts of situations. If that were the case, it would likely help us. I know, I know... wishcasting... It is puzzling how Wake County has managed to miss nine days of school for less than 6" of snow. That's ridiculous. I think anything before 10am will be snow for RDU, probably 1pm for your area, currently most models for RDU have precip coming after noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I can't even imagine how bad this would be for NYC to Boston if this SLP was 100 miles NW, it would be catastrophic…Good surfing weather for people up there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 To bad precip doesn't come in 6 hours earlier, would be definitely snow, possibly accumulating on grass/deck. We couldn't time this any worse. But, at least the kids won't miss another day of school, then in itself makes me glad this will be a non event for us. If temps can stay around 35F I think we will see snow, if it's 40F, forget it.I got two snows to stick on grass and cars last winter with temps 41-43 both times! I'm looking for sprinkles at best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I got two snows to stick on grass and cars last winter with temps 41-43 both times! I'm looking for sprinkles at best! Must have had good rates, I can see mid 30's with accumulating snow, at least for around here. For central NC it's fairly cold aloft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 James or packbaker, do you have the Euro yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 James or packbaker, do you have the Euro yet? Yes….mtns do very well, as does Mt. Airy and ROA. And of course the MA, the snow capital of the universe is 3-4". Central NC get's precip holed, LOL. To be honest, this is kind of what I though the event would look like a few days ago, western NC up through the MA the jackpot, just thought it would be more precip due to coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Yes….mtns do very well, as does Mt. Airy and ROA. And of course the MA, the snow capital of the universe is 3-4". Central NC get's precip holed, LOL. Thanks. I thought that it may have trended wetter for us based on what I read about the mid-atlantic moisture in the other subforums. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Thanks. I thought that it may have trended wetter for us based on what I read about the mid-atlantic moisture in the other subforums. Oh well. You can see the precip line for the coastal, running down 95, need it about 25-50 miles west for RDU and 100 miles west for you guys, from the coastal. Eh…at least it won't be another cold deluge, that's a big plus for me at least. So, we get down to freezing tonight, it warms to 40F, precip comes in, we drop back down to well below freezing after the precip is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 ROA to Mt Airy is a very nice event, almost 0.4" of QPF, solidly all snow, 2m below freezing entire time, nice event. Mtns do very well, surprised WSW's aren't up, most models have several inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Wake County missed like three or four days for each of the bigger snow events. After the first one we didn't get above freezing for 48 hrs and dipped down to 7 degrees, so obviously the snow was slow to melt. We had a pretty good winter here in Raleigh, but not a great one. It was good if you compare it to the last two winters, which were horrible, snow-wise. But we were pretty close to average here in Raleigh. Our two big snows were 2-4 inches each (varied in different parts of the city) and then we saw a couple of other storms that gave us a dusting to a coating of snow. BTW, what location is leading NC in snowfall for this winter? Elizabeth City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 And the 15z SREF's are much wetter for the mountains through VA and Northern NC like all of the other models have trended today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Yeah, the Euro is a solid event for the mountains and foothills. It backed off a little for GSO with the band hanging out in the mountains and foothills, but we are within like 15 miles of 2" on the clown. The 2" line runs through Winston-Salem. Chalk it up to the Euro being too far N/W, per par, and call it 2-4" here. (I'm kidding, BTW) In all seriousness, it wouldn't surprise me if this is yet another event where I wish I lived another 10 miles N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 944 mb....looking ripe, too bad it's a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Yeah, the Euro is a solid event for the mountains and foothills. It backed off a little for GSO with the band hanging out in the mountains and foothills, but we are within like 15 miles of 2" on the clown. The 2" line runs through Winston-Salem. Chalk it up to the Euro being too far N/W, per par, and call it 2-4" here. (I'm kidding, BTW) In all seriousness, it wouldn't surprise me if this is yet another event where I wish I lived another 10 miles N/W. It wouldn't surprise me if someone between 85-77 gets in a nice band of 3-4", between Reidsville to Roxboro possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It wouldn't surprise me if someone between 85-77 gets in a nice band of 3-4", between Reidsville to Roxboro possibly. ncweather jackpots again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 ncweather jackpots again? Possibly...18z NAM coming in good deal west, someone is going to get 18z NAM'd, probably central/No-VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 ncweather jackpots again? Another "typical suspects" storm. Roxboro has done really well this year. I would have to think they average about the same as GSO, but I think ncweather has had like 23" of snow this year (GSO has 15-16"). Roxboro has been jackpotting on almost every marginal event, it seems. Possibly...18z NAM coming in good deal west, someone is going to get 18z NAM'd, probably central/No-VA January 2000 repeat inbound... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 LOL, NAM is actually tracking the SLP just east of HAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 If BL temperatures weren't awful (and they are awful there... in the 40s), the NAM would have just destroyed coastal NC. The Delmarva peninsula gets crushed. I need to move to Ocean City, MD for significant snow in late March, I guess. It's actually in general a better run for most. It looks Euroish for the western half of NC (though not quite as potent). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Beware of the inverted trough again guys! Its no accident the ECMWF is beefing up totals in the WNC mountains overnight into tomorrow morning. Advisory criteria snowfall over the mountains is certainly possible. In contrast, I am not bullish about those further east into the midlands and points eastward. That boundary layer in late March will be too much to overcome with only marginal 850 hPa temperatures. Rates won't be high enough to overcome the solar insolation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 If BL temperatures weren't awful (and they are awful there... in the 40s), the NAM would have just destroyed coastal NC. The Delmarva peninsula gets crushed. I need to move to Ocean City, MD for significant snow in late March, I guess. It's actually in general a better run for most. It looks Euroish for the western half of NC. Yes, this could be a big run for NYC to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 LOL. GSP has turned the event (my neck of the woods) into a "Nevermind", today. It has been 'gradual' over the last few days. 50% chance of rain (.1") before 3pm, high of 52. That's been the trend last couple weeks. Might have to drive to S Maine tomorrow? 8-10 hrs.? Anybody checking those boards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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