3-24 to 3-26 possible winter storm?

[FLweather]

Well, the 00z GGEM and 00z GFS were disasters.  The GGEM is interesting in that it bombs the low out to 946 mb south of Newfoundland.  Mighty fish storm and a mighty storm for the Canadian Maritimes.

 

However, we can continue to hug the UKMET, which continued to show goodies at 00z...

 

 

Now, it's time to await our ***-kicking by the 00z Euro.

 

EDIT: Yes, it sucks.  I'm almost all-out.  It does give SE MA 20"+ of snow, though.  Wow.

 

 

That would be by far the best case scenario. Appears to get the stream interaction together further west. If its right that would be decent snow.

 

Either way when and if NC gets snow off this system its going to be from the N/S clipper that dives in from the NW with the assoicated frontogenesis aloft. 

 

Right now any phasing looks to start over top of NC and east. With the N/S and S/S close enough while precip may remain very light its a good possiblity that as a whole the expansiveness of the precip shield is underdone.

 

GFS

Notice how they remain seperated till off shore. Further east in NC the best chance for snow. But would still be possible for central and eastern Sections to recieve snow off the frontal band.

 

 

But notice how with the Nam the interaction between the streams starts a little early. The N/S tries to pull moisture back inland over much of NC.

 

 

This is from 6z nam. Notice how the N/S tries to pull back deeper moisture. Before becoming phased offshore.

 

Yeah the way its looking the best chance of seeing light snow is Triad east into the Coastal plain. But right now even on the modeling there is a very fine line between light/moderate snows to increasing rates rapidly the further east. Even the nam trys to get a coma head going before getting off shore.

 

 

Still about 50 hours from the start of this and dont think the models will nail it down perfectly since most of pieces get going over top of NC.

[FLweather]

The 12z Gfs isn't half bad looking Triad east into the coastal plain for light snows moderate further east. This run seems quicker and closer to the coast. Even the last frame shows a bit of a coma head over the Outerbanks and Pamlico Sound

 

[superjames1992]

The 12z Euro was pretty bullish with that northern piece of energy. That seems to be our only hope at this point.

[10below]

The 12z Euro was pretty bullish with that northern piece of energy. That seems to be our only hope at this point.

 

Too late, you already said you were out.

[packbacker]

RGEM is a dusting to an inch for the northern border counties...

 

[Jon]

The 12z Euro was pretty bullish with that northern piece of energy. That seems to be our only hope at this point.

12z Ensemble members have 4 out of 51 (counting the control) with snow at RDU (or whatever it thinks is snow), mean is a Trace. Can we get to 0/51??

[superjames1992]

12z Ensemble members have 4 out of 51 (counting the control) with snow at RDU (or whatever it thinks is snow), mean is a Trace. Can we get to 0/51??

 

Lot more bullish up this way.  Around 35 have snow and the mean is close to 0.5".  Presumably, that's from the northern piece.  Of course, only one member has >2", so we're fighting for scraps.  The coastal is DOA.

 

Looks like the NAM is kind of picking up on it, too, though the GFS is pretty dry, though it's lower resolution probably isn't doing it any favors with this particular feature.  Of course, depending on the BL, whatever precip that falls might be rain, anyways, as it will likely be fairly light.

 

EDIT: The 18z RGEM has it, too.  Time to have another overperforming marginal event in this area.

[jburns]

Lot more bullish up this way.  Around 35 have snow and the mean is close to 0.5".  Presumably, that's from the northern piece.  Of course, only one member has >2", so we're fighting for scraps.  The coastal is DOA.

 

Looks like the NAM is kind of picking up on it, too, though the GFS is pretty dry, though it's lower resolution probably isn't doing it any favors with this particular feature.  Of course, depending on the BL, whatever precip that falls might be rain, anyways, as it will likely be fairly light.

 

.5 equals zero.  Not enough to overcome the warn ground.

[superjames1992]

.5 equals zero.  Not enough to overcome the warn ground.

 

You are likely right.  Timing looks horrible.  Snow falling from the sky is nice, though.

[Cold Rain]

I'm glad I only put up the small blind for this one.

[superjames1992]

The 00z Euro clown drops 2.7" in Boone, 1.4" for GSO, 1.7" for INT, and close to 3" for the border counties. Looks to be some nice banding that sets up in the western Piedmont and foothills up into central VA and right over DC. Surface temperatures are very, very iffy, though. Hard to get too excited given the thermals as it generally shows temperatures in the 34-35 degree range while "snow" is falling. It showed a similar feature at 12z, but upped totals some. Even if that was indeed snow, you'd have to think accumulating snowfall would be tough.

It seems to line up decently well with the RGEM and UKMET, FWIW. Straw grasping FTW.

[JacobNC]

So if we see any snow in NC it will be from the wraparound moisture and not the actual storm sliding up the coast?

[nchighcountrywx]

[Suncat]

Currently 32F in Raleigh. High will be near 50F.  We may see a few flakes in the air tomorrow, but not expecting anything to stick, even to the grass.

[FLweather]

So if we see any snow in NC it will be from the wraparound moisture and not the actual storm sliding up the coast?

 

No not really.

 

Its going to associated with the frontogenesis of the N/S energy that dives in. There is going to be a fair amount of convergence aloft as the two air masses combined along the coast. Ultimately I would believe the further east from the triad the better assuming if the BL temps are not much of an issue.

 

 All the models show it in some shape form or fashion some to a higher degree and some to a lesser.

If the nam is correct this is what the radar should resemble in the morning.

 

The nam drops widespread .10-.25". So if BL temps aren't much of an issue and accounting for some evaporation if everything goes perfect... some places may see a solid inch or slightly better.

 

[Brick Tamland]

WxSouth and RAH were being really bullish about this last week. Oh, well. Maybe one day we'll learn.

[Cold Rain]

 

WxSouth and RAH were being really bullish about this last week. Oh, well. Maybe one day we'll learn.

 

I thought we learned not to be bullish about long range snowstorms a long time ago...especially ones in late March.

[FreezeWarning1]

WxSouth and RAH were being really bullish about this last week. Oh, well. Maybe one day we'll learn.

Only one met at RAH was being bullish about it and as I said before, he's no winter wx expert. The NWS are human forecasters too, and some just aren't as good/experienced with NC winter wx as others are.

[superjames1992]

No not really.

Its going to associated with the frontogenesis of the N/S energy that dives in. There is going to be a fair amount of convergence aloft as the two air masses combined along the coast. Ultimately I would believe the further east from the triad the better assuming if the BL temps are not much of an issue.

I think the issue for places east of here is that timing is even worse. At least here we're looking at the precip arriving not far after dawn, so the BL might not be torching yet. Further east, that is going to be more of an issue. The Euro showed this last night, with I- 40/I-85 generally forming the rain/snow line with 1.5-3.5" (how much of that would actually accumulate is a dubious proposition) north and west of there. It seems like this might be the sort of event that might work out for us in January, but not in March. An arrival during the wee hours of the morning would help.

Who knows, we'll see. It looks like we'll get to see flakes fly, if nothing else. Snow TV in late March is nice. Maybe the usual suspects this year (i.e. you, me, etc.) will get another marginal overperfoming event, but I'm not counting on it.

As a side note, it would be fun to chase this storm to Cape Cod or one of the islands. It looks fun out there.

[superjames1992]

They've brined all the primary roads here. Completely unnecessary, IMO. I just washed my car a couple days ago and now it's going to be salty again. Ugh.

[Hvward]

Nam, Sref, and RGEM all coming in much wetter for my area this morning.  I wouldn't put this one to bed yet, I think we have a shot at 1"-3" here in valley.

[packbacker]

I think the issue for places east of here is that timing is even worse. At least here we're looking at the precip arriving not far after dawn, so the BL might not be torching yet. Further east, that is going to be more of an issue. The Euro showed this last night, with I- 40/I-85 generally forming the rain/snow line with 1.5-3.5" (how much of that would actually accumulate is a dubious proposition) north and west of there. It seems like this might be the sort of event that might work out for us in January, but not in March. An arrival during the wee hours of the morning would help.

Who knows, we'll see. It looks like we'll get to see flakes fly, if nothing else. Snow TV in late March is nice. Maybe the usual suspects this year (i.e. you, me, etc.) will get another marginal overperfoming event, but I'm not counting on it.

As a side note, it would be fun to chase this storm to Cape Cod or one of the islands. It looks fun out there.

RGEM is running 34-36 for RDU for heart of precip, which came in wetter for 12z run.  I would think we see flakes fly, if precip is heavy enough….

 

[The Alchemist]

Nam, Sref, and RGEM all coming in much wetter for my area this morning.  I wouldn't put this one to bed yet, I think we have a shot at 1"-3" here in valley.

 

Is that all from the primary front initial system passage, or is there any wrap around?

Think Saluda NC might be too far south for this one? 

[Hvward]

Is that all from the primary front initial system passage, or is there any wrap around?

Think Saluda NC might be too far south for this one? 

 

on the RGEM it looks like we get accumulating in wnc from both the frontal passage and the backside.  It appears like we benefit somewhat from frontogenesis as the front passes and backside snowfall is always hard to predict for this area so I think we have a pretty good shot at an inch or so total, even down to Saluda.  RGEM even gives northern parts NC a nice 1"-3" (even as far east as Superjames and GSO maybe even Winston) 

[packfan98]

Looks like a last minute bump in precip totals.  Might result in more token flakes for many.  The GFS also looks much wetter.  Gets RDU to .25 qpf it looks like.

 

06z gfs

 

new 12z:

[Cold Rain]

Might just be noise at this point. Hopefully, we can squeeze out a little more moisture. Light precip probably isn't going to get it done, though. We need heavy, banded precip to overcome a crappy boundary layer...especially east.

[packbacker]

12z UK...

 

 

0z UK

 

[Cold Rain]

^ Looks like far eastern areas see an uptick in precip compared to 0Z, whereas western/central areas stayed virtually the same.

[packbacker]

^ Looks like far eastern areas see an uptick in precip compared to 0Z, whereas western/central areas stayed virtually the same.

 

To bad precip doesn't come in 6 hours earlier, would be definitely snow, possibly accumulating on grass/deck.  We couldn't time this any worse.  But, at least the kids won't miss another day of school, then in itself makes me glad this will be a non event for us.  If temps can stay around 35F I think we will see snow, if it's 40F, forget it.

[superjames1992]

I wonder how much falls from hr 24-30 on the UKMET. I would suppose there is some, though Plymouth only has six-hour precip available every 12 hours, so you miss half the time.