nchighcountrywx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The WxBell experimental ECMWF Interim WRF-ARW 10km has the low bombing by 72hrs basically if you interesect two lines, one from the FL panhandle and one from E NC. 12z Euro ensemble members as a group too a minimal western jog but it's noticeable. Bombing early is the goal here, it needs to get wound up before it passes NC OBX.Thanks...I need to look at Ryan's latest work with that product.Appreciated that you pointed this out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Heh, the EPS snowfall mean doubled here. We went from 0.25" to ~0.50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Agree, but the setup has trended less favorable over the past 72hrs, unsure if there is enough wiggle to correct for a rare late March winterwx event. 12z EC ens mean is pretty bleak for RDU and PGV, similar to past runs, splitting 1/2" vs the 2-4" we saw a couple days ago. I do not see any UL mechanism which amplifies the surface wave coming out of the gulf, this will be late, track just outside the BM, maybe clipping NE. Not quite ready to throw in the late March towel, thickness is borderline for RWI to ECG, even back to RDU. Energy in question enters CONUS around Glacier National Park which is a preferred point for the southern MA Coastal Plain, cross polar flow is in place, which is the key ingredient getting SN dominant type here. Will this event perform, unsure. By perform we are talking 2-4 wet inches, late March, climo and thickness are trending towards no. If the slp can wrap up earlier, aided by the polar air (delta T) on the backside, we may have something. Yeah, that makes sense. It's a low percentage chance. If we don't see something better by the 12Zs tomorrow, I'll throw the towel. It's getting late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Does Raleigh have a shot at anything? Like, an inch? If it moves to the east that sucks for Charlotte and the Triad but at least parts of RDU should still be on the fringe of this. And how about Norfolk? I don't think anyone takes the time to read anymore......ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This is the 72 hour 0Z Uk map, which is on its own as of now and would likely yield much better results for much of the well inland parts of the SE soon afterward (note the 0.60"+ 12 hour precip. just off SE LA and the forming Miller A there as well as the precip. well NW of there into TX; this is resulting from just a slightly better 500 mb flow)(come on King, join your European brother at 12z lol): 0322140Zuk072.gif 12z ukmet way more amplified already at hr 72 1005 of the sc coast throwin precip 5mm across much of the state with heavier precip in tenn and to the south. Temps look a little better too. I sure hope the euro gets on board tonight! Or us mountain folk are up a creek without a paddle have to rely on some good ole nw flow yall down east might get lucky thou. Edit: I mean nc/sc to with the 5mm precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well, the 00z NAM tries to rope us back in....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Unless the models get a better hold on the storm after the front and wave passes im out except for some nw flow. But even that will be a long shot for my location. Congrats to NE and all the usual people probley guna be a monster for the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well, the 00z NAM tries to rope us back in.... A little but it still looks like crap maybe the coastle areas but I dout temps will be good enough with the sun angle this late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 A little but it still looks like crap maybe the coastle areas but I dout temps will be good enough with the sun angle this late in the game. It looks decent for a lot of central NC from probably Burlington-eastward (especially closer to the NC/VA border). I didn't look at 2m temperatures, so maybe there's some problems there, but still. Delmarva peninsula posters will love this run. Obviously, there may be issues with getting the snow to stick in these parts. We all need to lower expectations and accept this won't likely be a big storm. We're all searching for flakes. That's all. Plus, the NAM has been a disaster for all prior runs, so I found it interesting. Of course, the NAM is useless at this range, so there's that. You never give up do you boss? Nope. I go down with the ship. The last two "last chance" storms have overperformed (3/6, 3/17), so that gives this weenie hope. The truth is, I won't be disappointed if we get zilch. It's been a good winter here and I don't think anyone should be expecting anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It looks decent for a lot of central NC from probably Burlington-eastward (especially closer to the NC/VA border). I didn't look at 2m temperatures, so maybe there's some problems there, but still. Delmarva peninsula posters will love this run. Obviously, there may be issues with getting the snow to stick in these parts. You never give up do you boss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Don't discredit the NAM it could be leading the way here. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Don't discredit the NAM it could be leading the way here. Sent from my HTC One What did it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Better data will be getting ingested into the next few model cycles as the pieces of the puzzle, espeacily NS get into range way upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well, the 00z NAM tries to rope us back in.......It's gonna take a ambassadeur 7000 to reel me in,what the nam show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 I feel our cards to see a decent to significant winter storm are still on the table. March is very volatile! Always has been! The models were strong for a couple of days with significant qpf and the cold shot during/afterwards. They never "really" lost the cold. Now the trends, albeit baby steps, are to start showing the precip again. I know we have all of this data in front of us, but with EVERY winter season, we need to take what has been a mainstay for EACH SPECIFIC SEASON and formulate this into the forecast (for the Pro's). I mean...we have seen A LOT MORE precipitation for EVERY system than originally forecasted to begin with, whether it be rain or snow! Also, there is still PLENTY of time before Tuesday. For now, I myself will take a "middle of the road" approach and count on a LARGE area of NC to see some snow. It is too early for amounts, but this pendulum could swing either way. This is the last hoorah of the season. I am quite surprised more persons are not dissecting this system!! Thanks to all of you that have kept the PBP going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It looks decent for a lot of central NC from probably Burlington-eastward (especially closer to the NC/VA border). I didn't look at 2m temperatures, so maybe there's some problems there, but still. Delmarva peninsula posters will love this run. Obviously, there may be issues with getting the snow to stick in these parts. We all need to lower expectations and accept this won't likely be a big storm. We're all searching for flakes. That's all. Plus, the NAM has been a disaster for all prior runs, so I found it interesting. Of course, the NAM is useless at this range, so there's that. Nope. I go down with the ship. The last two "last chance" storms have overperformed (3/6, 3/17), so that gives this weenie hope. The truth is, I won't be disappointed if we get zilch. It's been a good winter here and I don't think anyone should be expecting anything at this point. Heck yeah I like your style lol Id really like the euro to come around to the ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Looking at the 00Z GFS, noting the HP setup, I feel this will be quite a nice setup. I expect to see some big changes tonight, back to a more west solution, starting with the EURO. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Speaking for the ATL-AHN contingent, Dandy Don is warming up right now. This is very close to being declared a virtual no chancer for anything of significance there. I may make it official once the Good Doctor has his say, assuming he goes along with the 0Z GFS. I like to give the King the final say so for obvious reasons although that requires late hours these days. regardless, this has been still another fun system for which to track and analyze climo. I'm very concerned about the N GA and upstate SC contingent. Despite the long up and down and fun winter, will they be able to handle this? The good news is that November is only a little over 7 months away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Speaking for the ATL-AHN contingent, Dandy Don is warming up right now. This is very close to being declared a virtual no chancer for anything of significance there. I may make it official once the Good Doctor has his say, assuming he goes along with the 0Z GFS. I like to give the King the final say so for obvious reasons although that requires late hours these days. regardless, this has been still another fun system for which to track and analyze climo. I'm very concerned about the N GA and upstate SC contingent. Despite the long up and down and fun winter, will they be able to handle this? The good news is that November is only a little over 7 months away! I see what you mean Larry. What do you think about NC? I am at the border of NC/SC, slight west of CLT. I still think we have some opportunity. I dunno. Looking at the Goofus tonight...something does not match up with the orientation of the HP's and the low pressure. I am taking climo (in regards to every system this winter season). I still think this may overperform for a lot of persons. Thanks for any input and ALL the data you give sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I see what you mean Larry. What do you think about NC? I am at the border of NC/SC, slight west of CLT. I still think we have some opportunity. I dunno. Looking at the Goofus tonight...something does not match up with the orientation of the HP's and the low pressure. I am taking climo (in regards to every system this winter season). I still think this may overperform for a lot of persons. Thanks for any input and ALL the data you give sir. You're welcome. NC, especially NE of you, normally has a much better chance than ATL-AHN to get something out of an Atlantic developer. When a low develops in the SE Atlantic, all it does is take its moisture away from N GA. If I were in your location, I wouldn't give up just yet. ATL-AHN needs a Miller A here. You could also use a Miller A. However, you still would have a small chance for something sig. without a Miller A in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 You're welcome. NC, especially NE of you, normally has a much better chance than ATL-AHN to get something out of an Atlantic developer. If I were in your location, I wouldn't give up just yet. ATL-AHN needs a Miller A here. You could also use a Miller A. However, you still would have a small chance for something sig. without a Miller A in this case. I see what you mean Larry! However, I would NOT close the book on this just yet. This is such a volatile time of year (we both know that) and with the way this wacky season has been, I would not be surprised to see NGA/Upstate SC see some love, in the form of wintry precipitation. I am thinking that I will not throw in the towel on the aforementioned areas until 12Z tomorrow. Just my two pennies... Have a good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Isn't there a random shortwave / clipper coming through the mtns on Tuesday that could give us random flakes? I thought someone mentioned it here a day or two ago, and our local weather guy brought up a rain / snow mix. He said no moisture was coming from the Atlantic storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You guys crack em up. I'm not sure why you guys are still trying to reel this one in, I already told you how it was going to play out . Everything has been proceeding as I have foreseen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 We have the prospect of overrunning, an upper low forming, you name it! This is not OVA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Here is a snippet from NWS-GSP for Tuesday timeframe: Monday NightA slight chance of rain and snow between midnight and 2am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. TuesdayA chance of snow before noon, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well, the 00z GGEM and 00z GFS were disasters. The GGEM is interesting in that it bombs the low out to 946 mb south of Newfoundland. Mighty fish storm and a mighty storm for the Canadian Maritimes. However, we can continue to hug the UKMET, which continued to show goodies at 00z... Now, it's time to await our ***-kicking by the 00z Euro. EDIT: Yes, it sucks. I'm almost all-out. It does give SE MA 20"+ of snow, though. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The 0Z Good Doctor says no go for N GA and nearby. I'm officially giving up on this one. Good luck to those still with a chance in E NC. This was fun to follow, especially so late in the season. :)Night night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well I was hoping that the NAM might be sniffing something out but I think our goose is cooked. Pretty much every model whiffs the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Looks like the Piedmont is cooked. NWS Raleigh evened mentioned possible thunder Tuesday afternoon/evening. I for one am glad. I just finished up getting all the limbs cut and out of my yard from the ice storm. It needs to dry out so I can get my yard back in order. Here is a small part of their discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well I was hoping that the NAM might be sniffing something out but I think our goose is cooked. Pretty much every model whiffs the SE. Yep. OBX might get in on some SN but that's it, IMO this never trended toward any other solution. I'm usually pretty optimistic about our chances but this one screamed fail early. Bring on spring! (for the love of god) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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