superjames1992 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ensembles are further West than the operational, especially as the storm moves north from Va. For what model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looking at the 500mb height with wind map on WxBell, there's a nice wind max that accompanies the diving wave...so there's a good bit of energy diving down, it's just so darn late and east It's a real shame actually, cause it's close to being bigger for us, but yet it's so far away, LOL. Today's runs were definitely good for the NE, NYC and points NE. Euro get's it down to 952 east of the BM. If this get's anymore west for them, it could be really bad, like roof collapsing, buildings knocked over bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 You can see from the 24 hour precip field on the Euro how the SLP, swings around NC/VA/MD and get's pulled back to hit NYC to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looking at the 5h maps, the SS energy never really phases fully, it's close but doesn't. If the SS energy was stronger we would be in business, but it's not as we are left to watch the NE get pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 We are starting to get inside of ensemble range, but the 12z GEFS mean looks better than last night's 00z GEFS. I haven't seen the individual members, but this doesn't look too bad. It's 3 mb stronger and further west by ~50 miles from last night's run. I think the upside is a light/moderate event, but it's late March, so whatever is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 For what model? Euro, but it gets further west only after it passes NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro, but it gets further west only after it passes NCyeah, the western "trend" after it bombs out isn't helpful for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think we can stick a fork in this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 RAH afternoon AFD .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY......STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY MORNING BUTFORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE...TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: STILL BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THEPOTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR TUESDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OFF THESE COAST MERGES WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTAINING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA AND THE CAROLINAS. THE LATEST RUN OFTHE GFS STILL HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW THAT INTERACTS WITH THEUPPER TROUGH...PRODUCING AN INTENSE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSSCENTRAL NC ROUGHLY BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ISMUCH SLOWER AND THUS THERE IS NO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOWAND THE SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS PRODUCES A MINIMUM OFPRECIPIATION OVER CENTRAL NC. AS IN MOST CASES...THE TRUTH MOSTLIKELY IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. WPC NOTED IN THEIR PRELIMINARYDISCUSSION THAT THE GFS COULD BE CONTAMINATED BY A BIT OF FEEDBACKCAUSING IT TO BE OVERDONE AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF MIGHT BE TOOSLOW AS THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS A LITTLE FASTER. THEREFORE WILLSPLIT THE DIFFERENCE IN THE SOLUTIONS WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNINGIN THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 9Z WITH A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWAPRECIPITATING BY 12Z. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE BEST CHANCEFOR SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF HWY 64 BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z AS MODEL FORECASTSOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE ATTHIS TIME. SOUTH OF 64 AND EAST OF I-95 EXPECT A CHANCE FOR RAIN ORSNOW BEFORE 12Z TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. EXPECTALL AREAS TO TRANSITION TO RAIN BY 18Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LEAVELITTLE ROOM FOR ANY OTHER P-TYPES OTHER THAN RAIN OR SNOW AS LOWLEVELS STAY ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUTTO THE NORTHEAST...ENDING EVERYWHERE AROUND 00Z.TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER IN THE MODELS AND NOW SUPPORTHIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE FRONTALSYSTEM MOVES THOUGH EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO DIVE BACK BELOWFREEZING...MID 20S NW TO NEAR 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITIONNORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG TUESDAY NIGHT GUSTING TO 20KTS OR SO...GIVING ROADS A CHANCE TO DRY OUT. THERE STILL WILL BETHE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE IN PARTICULARLY WET SPOTS WEDNESDAYMORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 JB tweet: @BigJoeBastardi: ECMWF ensembles Wed AM 100 miles nw of yesterdays idea, but not as moist yet as operational. Trend NW should continue IMO I know that this may or may not have an impact on the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 as others has stated the nw trend won't do much for nc because its when the trough goes negative around va and dc thats when you start to see the nw trend... we need the trough to go neg earlier for it to benefit us down here... which anything is possible... i believe the writing will be on the wall tonight after the 0z runs as far as track and intesity... and also this season the storms have trended south within the 24-36 hr frame will be interesting to see if that trend continues with this storm... if you try to pinpoint all the variable with this storm it would drive you insane... ima wait and let the radar do the talking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I think asking for two trends 3 days out , is alot to ask. The temps need to trend colder, and west trend of the low needs to start, but with warm temps, the low track is a moot point! Congrats to Boston! They have to be near 60" for the year!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Well, it's March and we're dealin with alot of energy and dynamics. Alot can still change. Think back to March '93 and how different things verified versus expectations just 2 days out. I'm not saying that's what I expect, but a lot of options are still on the table. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z GGEM Ens precip v/s 0z GGEM Ens precip. I guess it can't shift another 50 miles west in 72 hours? Or guess it could always shift 50 miles east leaving everyone high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Well, it's March and we're dealin with alot of energy and dynamics. Alot can still change. Think back to March '93 and how different things verified versus expectations just 2 days out. I'm not saying that's what I expect, but a lot of options are still on the table. TW Agreed, it could still be anything from 2-4" of snow for a lot of folks to nothing, but trends were better today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 AGREED TarheelWx!!! I get what you are saying! This is March madness! ANNNYTHING can happen! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Question for those in Alabama and Georgia - what was the forecast 60 hors before flakes started falling in March '93? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Agreed guys. I think this has a greater chance of trending a little better than it does the other way...of course, better may not be much. One thing to consider from a weenie point of view as well is that models often underplay the precip expanse on the north and west side of the precip shield. If we get the UKMet and GFS look, I could certainly see precip breaking out in central and east TN / N AL&GA before working east. Looks like to me that the 12z Euro Ensemble is lock in step with it's previous run...i.e. well off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Agreed guys. I think this has a greater chance of trending a little better than it does the other way...of course, better may not be much. One thing to consider from a weenie point of view as well is that models often underplay the precip expanse on the north and west side of the precip shield. If we get the UKMet and GFS look, I could certainly see precip breaking out in central and east TN / N AL&GA before working east. Looks like to me that the 12z Euro Ensemble is lock in step with it's previous run...i.e. well off the coast. Isn't that what happened in late Jan? ATL had not been progged to get much at all. However, in order to see much, I'd want to see the energy dig more/well west of here and provide moist WSW flow/pop an actual Miller A . You see any chance? I'm giving it at least til Doc speaks at 2 am. Chances are low as of now but not yet zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Uh oh. The gfs is flat and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Uh oh. The gfs is flat and out to sea.Yep. The fact that it doesn't slam New England makes me believe it is wrong, though. Based on mid-levels, it would be a nice hit for NE NC like Elizabeth City, but surface temperatures probably suck out there. The 15z SREF came in much wetter than prior runs, but there might be some crazy amped rainers in there skewing the mean for all I know. The SREF at this range is fairly useless, anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Does Raleigh have a shot at anything? Like, an inch? If it moves to the east that sucks for Charlotte and the Triad but at least parts of RDU should still be on the fringe of this. And how about Norfolk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 When the RGEM kills it, I'm out. Until then, no need to throw in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 When the RGEM kills it, I'm out. Until then, no need to throw in the towel. Tonight the models go big, I am staying up for GFS and UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Tonight the models go big, I am staying up for GFS and UK. I'm with you...except for the staying up part. Can't do that. But I think we see some good stuff tonight, or by tomorrow afternoon at the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Question for those in Alabama and Georgia - what was the forecast 60 hors before flakes started falling in March '93? TW Right on que. Was right in the heart of that storm and it was pegged almost to the letter 5 days out. Everyone knew what was coming and it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 When the RGEM kills it, I'm out. Until then, no need to throw in the towel. Agree, but the setup has trended less favorable over the past 72hrs, unsure if there is enough wiggle to correct for a rare late March winterwx event. 12z EC ens mean is pretty bleak for RDU and PGV, similar to past runs, splitting 1/2" vs the 2-4" we saw a couple days ago. I do not see any UL mechanism which amplifies the surface wave coming out of the gulf, this will be late, track just outside the BM, maybe clipping NE. Not quite ready to throw in the late March towel, thickness is borderline for RWI to ECG, even back to RDU. Energy in question enters CONUS around Glacier National Park which is a preferred point for the southern MA Coastal Plain, cross polar flow is in place, which is the key ingredient getting SN dominant type here. Will this event perform, unsure. By perform we are talking 2-4 wet inches, late March, climo and thickness are trending towards no. If the slp can wrap up earlier, aided by the polar air (delta T) on the backside, we may have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Right on que. Was right in the heart of that storm and it was pegged almost to the letter 5 days out. Everyone knew what was coming and it verified. That hasn't happened very often since, despite multi million dollar model upgrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I only expect any significant snow from Maryland NE with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The WxBell experimental ECMWF Interim WRF-ARW 10km has the low bombing by 72hrs basically if you interesect two lines, one from the FL panhandle and one from E NC. 12z Euro ensemble members as a group too a minimal western jog but it's noticeable. Bombing early is the goal here, it needs to get wound up before it passes NC OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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