Cold Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Im all in here in McDowell county in wnc. Im hopefull that climo will serve us right by tommrozs 12z euro cmc will come around and tick more nw. One thing I noticed last night on the 0Z gfs is the high was located around upstate new York at hr 68 if it slides out to see while the low is still in the ne gulf cud that help with some blocking and keep the track closer to the coast if not a little inland? Again im just a wienie trying to learn thanks for any input. Edit: The high was located around the upper Midwest in previous runs. I think the biggest thing to watch is the ridge out west. We need the wave to dig more if we want it to amplify better and come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Watch the trends from the models today. It will most likely give us a clue as to whether, or not, this system will still be a threat come Monday night. If we do not see a west trend starting today, then it might be time to consider this one a swing and a miss for the areas in the western parts of our forum. I agree with the previous posts about the wave digging more. That will foretell the track of any surface reflection along the SE coast. Climo would strongly suggest that this will be our last opportunity for a widespread event for anyone outside the mountains until next Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Thanks cold rain. I personally would love to see a piedmont runner not likely but ill settle for a coastle hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Thanks cold rain. I personally would love to see a piedmont runner not likely but ill settle for a coastle hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The trend of the Euro ensembles for RDU....from my previous post: 12z EPS mean yesterday (1/20) 35 members with snow mean of 2.4", 5 big dogs. 00z EPS (1/21) had 26 members with snow and 4 big dogs, with a mean of 2" 12z EPS (1/21) has 19 members showing frozen precip for RDU and 1 big dog with a mean of less than 1", down more than half. Update on the 00z Ens members for RDU today (1/22): 18 members w/ frozen, 7 of those with a Trace, 5 with 2" or so. mean is halved again near 0.5" or lower. There is a small western jog of the ensembles w/ precip but the low centers are still way off of the coast. The chances of these low centers tracking close to the OBX while deepening instead of deepening a little bit to the NE is very slim to me, I just think we'd have more members hugging the coast if that was a solution here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This winter has been great imo ill take whatever we get. The CAD has been the best ive ever seen the 3/6 storm was all snow here but within a ten mile radius going north into marion was just freezing rain and when u go south to the Rutherford county line it went from 4in to nothing in a matter of a couple hundred feet beautiful site watchin heavy snow fall on one side rain on the other elevation clearly help this was at the bottom of the slope but just amazing something u don't see every day talk about microclimate!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Thanks cold rain. I personally would love to see a piedmont runner not likely but ill settle for a coastle hugger. No problem buddy. I am hoping we see a closer to the coast track as well....just not as close as you want. The trend of the Euro ensembles for RDU....from my previous post: Update on the 00z Ens members for RDU today (1/22): 18 members w/ frozen, 7 of those with a Trace, 5 with 2" or so. mean is halved again near 0.5" or lower. There is a small western jog of the ensembles w/ precip but the low centers are still way off of the coast. The chances of these low centers tracking close to the OBX while deepening instead of deepening a little bit to the NE is very slim to me, I just think we'd have more members hugging the coast if that was a solution here. Not disagreeing with you on the chances, but we have seen the ensembles be clustered around various solutions from several days out all winter long, and the final solution was quite different. I'm not giving much weight to anything until the energy is sampled and we start to see a better general consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 On the 500 mb maps, it appears that a key is what happens to energy just now reaching the SW coast of Canada and dropping SE. If it digs more and takes a further Southwest track (say, over E KS/AR instead of E NE to SW of SL), many more in the SE would have a shot as that would likely turn the 500 flow from dry w to moist WSW ahead of it and allow for an actual Miller A to form in the n gom just off LA just as the 0Z Uk has. I'd love to be able to see the 72-96 hour uk precip!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Is it just me but the 12z nam at hr 72 looks like a miller b setup with the low off the coast of charelston s.c and another low in w ohio then it looks to transfer energy and bomb NE plz correct me if im wrong? Wana see a miller a setup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Is it just me but the 12z nam at hr 72 looks like a miller b setup with the low off the coast of charelston s.c and another low in w ohio then it looks to transfer energy and bomb NE plz correct me if im wrong? Wana see a miller a setup! Nothing after the words "nam at 72" matters. Don't even look at it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Gotcha! Is there any phasing on the models that's something im trying to learn more about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 No problem buddy. I am hoping we see a closer to the coast track as well....just not as close as you want. Not disagreeing with you on the chances, but we have seen the ensembles be clustered around various solutions from several days out all winter long, and the final solution was quite different. I'm not giving much weight to anything until the energy is sampled and we start to see a better general consistency. I would like to see all the 12z runs tick NW a little today, they don't have to completely show a coastal hugger today, but if they drift east again today it's probably done, IMO. The EURO ENS members didn't improve for our backyard but the overall look on the mean did improve. Still a very complicated setup, why I wouldn't completely throw in towel unless everything is way east today. To be honest I am more excited about the warm/sunny weather today than snow next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 You have to look hard but 0z Uk is clearly better at 72 hours than Euro or GFS with 500 mb flow and precip . around E TX fwiw. It also is better at hour 60 than was the 12z uk at 72. Edit: Also, notice the sfc suggesting a Miller A trying to form at 72 just S of E LA in the GOM. Other mods have higher SLP there. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=072&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en The 12Z gfs is definitely not going the route of the much desired (for many including N GA) 0Z Uk. It is similar to the 6z gfs and doesn't have a true Miller A start. The low really doesn't form until off the SE coast. The Uk actually has a Miller A. That would be far better for most here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The 12Z gfs is definitely not going the route of the much desired (for many including N GA) 0Z Uk. It is similar to the 6z gfs. Yeah, but it is digging it a little further SW and thus is a little sharper. Will see, probably helps out the NE more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z GFS definitely better than it's 0z/6z run, per 5h maps, trough was sharper further SW, would expect this to be a big run for the NE. Not quite enough for western NC/N-GA/SC but central/eastern NC get's a few inches. Edit: Didn't translate to the surface better, but looks similar to 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z GFS definitely better than it's 0z/6z run, per 5h maps, trough was sharper further SW, would expect this to be a big run for the NE. Not quite enough for western NC/N-GA/SC but central/eastern NC get's a few inches. Edit: Didn't translate to the surface better, but looks similar to 0z run. Yeah, looks like a good run for Raleigh and another fringe out here. The GFS has been quite consistent, at least. Now, we'll have to see if the other modeling falls in line or not. The GFS will get major props if this works out (or major fails if it doesn't). If the other modeling shifts back east, most sane people will fold. I will not because I'm insane and because my unrealistic weenie persistence with the 3/6 storm paid off (well, sort of.... with lost power and lots of icicles!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yeah, looks like a good run for Raleigh and another fringe out here. The GFS has been quite consistent, at least. Now, we'll have to see if the other modeling falls in line or not. The GFS will get major props if this works out (or major fails if it doesn't). Yeah, I thought it was better, though the surface wasn't that much better than 0z run. Hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It deepens to sub 960 just off of Maine, can't imagine if this was 100 miles west, it would paralyze the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z GFS slightly increased total QPF for RDU. Looks to be a little over .5 liquid; which looks to be snow if going off the 850 temp. There is more precip to the east of RDU but they will be fighting warmer 850 and surface temps. Do I dare say RDU could be in the sweet spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This is the 72 hour 0Z Uk map, which is on its own as of now and would likely yield much better results for much of the well inland parts of the SE soon afterward (note the 0.60"+ 12 hour precip. just off SE LA and the forming Miller A there as well as the precip. well NW of there into TX; this is resulting from just a slightly better 500 mb flow)(come on King, join your European brother at 12z lol): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z UK looks nice, on phone so can't post maps. NE will love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z cmc still east...Maybe some light snow for triad and RDU but nothing major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looks like the year of progressive weak crap continues, even in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12z cmc still east...Maybe some light snow for triad and RDU but nothing major. The CMC has now shifted west for two straight runs. Another similar shift as today and RDU would be in the game for a decent event. Looks like RDU is now in the 0.1"+ QPF for the first time in awhile on the CMC. As has been said, the 12z UKMET looks decent based on the 24-hr panels. It did a pretty good job as far as the track went with the 2/12-2/13 winter storm. It pretty consistently nailed the track from about 72 hours out while the Euro was too far inland. The UKMET did run a little colder than reality with that storm, but the surface low track was spot-on. I'm thinking RDU is probably in one of the best spots for this thing at the moment (not including SNE, obviously!). It's hard to see this shifting so far west to screw RDU over at this point. Of course, a whiff to the east is always very possible still. I guess I'll look at the 12z ECMWF in a few minutes. It would be nice if it shifted west. EDIT: The Euro sucks. Strange to see it being the further offshore. Then again, maybe it was with the 1/28 storm, too. I know it showed this area getting zilch for precip just hours before we got 1-2" of snow. Looks a little better, I guess. If it was all snow and surface temperatures/sun angle didn't kill it, Raleigh might get 1" of snow as the surface low transfers closer to the coast Tuesday evening. There's definitely a lot more precip in the coastal plain, though not enough to really matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looks like the year of progressive weak crap continues, even in late March. How much have you seen this year franklin and what is your normal? 12z GFS Ensemble Members on ewall...with a focus on NC, 9 of 12 are similar with precip shield. 2 are a whiff. 1 is in between. A few are a touch warmer than the op. 2 of the 9 that are similar have heavier precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 No improvement on Euro that I can see. Very light precip across NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 No improvement on Euro that I can see. Very light precip across NC I thought it was improved? Looks like it phased just a hair late, the SLP was trying to escape east and it does get pulled back west bringing in light precip to central NC. I bet this is huge for the NE, including NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The 500mb heights were a touch deeper this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I thought it was improved? Looks like it phased just a hair late, the SLP was trying to escape east and it does get pulled back west bringing in light precip to central NC. I bet this is huge for the NE, including NYC. Looking at the 500mb height with wind map on WxBell, there's a nice wind max that accompanies the diving wave...so there's a good bit of energy diving down, it's just so darn late and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ensembles are further West than the operational, especially as the storm moves north from Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.