packbacker Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yeah, the 18z GFS is not bad. Looks even closer to the coast and in general better than the 12z run. Something is going to have to give soon. Either the GFS is going to fold or the other models are going to come west, too. Also, the NAVGEM is closer to the coast than the Euro/CMC, if this was flipped and the GFS/NAVGEM were east and the Euro/CMC were west this would make a lot more sense, LOL. But I agree, something will give soon, probably by tomorrow's 12z runs we will be right at 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 There's no reason to think this storm is actually going to work out. Models are trending terribly. Euro EPS mean has backed off for most areas, even the members showing a trace for Raleigh are gone. I expect the trend to continue at 00z tonight. 12z EPS mean yesterday 35 members with snow mean of 2.4", 5 big dogs. 00z EPS also had 26 members with snow and 4 big dogs, with a mean of 2" 12z EPS has 19 members showing frozen precip for RDU and 1 big dog with a mean of less than 1", down more than half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Folks, Do you recall the late January event, the one that caused Snowjam 2014 in ATL? I want to remind you that even within just a couple of days of it, the model consensus still wasn't giving ATL much of anything due to very light qpf. The models were harping on the coastal areas as getting the lion's share of the qpf. What if that's happening now and that it starts trending back westward by Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Guys I wouldint write it off just yet we all know the models are not guna get ahold on this thing until the first wave passes. But who knows it could very well go out to sea. I really have enjoyed this winter tracking all the storms its been a wild ride im just a weather wienie myself and I want to thank you all ive learned so much from this site I really aprishiate all the time and effort you guys put in. God bless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Don't the models always do this 3-5 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GSP pretty much saying this will be a " no go" event! Their afternoon discussion says even if there is precip that is more than models are showing , the temps in the NC piedmont would change any snow to rain by midday! I think this is toast for everyone, except maybe a few token flakes and some drizzle after that. This is for the Tuesday " event"! It's been a good winter. I'm cashing out! Yeah, I'd love to see it but the odds are completely stacked against most of us seeing anything. This late, only the north of I-40 crowd or above 2000 ft crowd have any reasonable chance. For the rest of us, it would take something pretty historic to see accums. Can it happen, sure, but we have to be realistic. Those hoping this will somehow trend towards a piedmont or even NEGA/Upstate acummulating storm are bound to be disappointed. Personally, it sounds like the same song and dance we have seen from the models all winter. I have seen countless runs and trends showing snow for me but I have only had accums twice, and both times they were minimal. This "winter packed" March has so far delivered only cold rain, and I see nothing to change my expectation that nothing more than a token flake might occur. I do think someone will see snow, but it looks like it will be more of the same - extreme northern NC, VA, and up. Congrats to those who score! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Don't the models always do this 3-5 days out? Every. Single. Time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 0Z GFS looks a teeny bit better than the 18Z gfs. Very teeny, tiny baby step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 0z gfs looks great at hr 84. GFS holding w/ the same track. EDIT: It might be a little west of the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 How are the 2m temps looking? People have been talking about precip/ no precip ( too Far East) 850s still good for snow to where it's either snow or no snow for the Tuesday potential ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 How are the 2m temps looking? People have been talking about precip/ no precip ( too Far East) 850s still good for snow to where it's either snow or no snow for the Tuesday potential ? Im no met but it looks real close for you guys 0c nc/sc border and warmer to the south into the upstate but evaporation should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I thought the GFS looked a smidge worse at 500mb, but it managed to come out with pretty much the same result as 18z. Soundings for Charlotte are all or mostly snow (barely). For Raleigh it starts as snow, then the sounding warms the boundary layer on Thursday, but hard to say how that would pan off if the precip is coming down good. UKMet is in and looks pretty good. 995mb not too far off Hatteras. By the way, the 12z UKMet wasn't that bad either. The thing I'm looking at mainly is the lead 500mb vort max. A track through Colorado to Oklahoma is pretty good. A track through Wyoming to Missouri "won't too good" as they say in Cumberland county. The 00z NAM was terrible with its track. 12z Euro was bad too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The 00z GFS looked a little better out this way. Looked like a quick-hitter that drops a few inches of snow in a fast and furious fashion. If we're going to get late March snow, we need it to come down hard, so that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Also, the NAVGEM is closer to the coast than the Euro/CMC, if this was flipped and the GFS/NAVGEM were east and the Euro/CMC were west this would make a lot more sense, LOL. But I agree, something will give soon, probably by tomorrow's 12z runs we will be right at 72 hours out. It's like the twilight zone. We have the amplification-happy models (Euro and CMC) further east and the progressive models (GFS, UKMET, NAVGEM) further west. That's the opposite of what I would typically expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The 00z GGEM is further west than its 12z run. It's not really enough to matter much, but a lot of NC probably sees mood flakes and decent precip reaches the coastal plain. It destroys SNE. ------ 00z UKMET, hr 96: I wish I could see the preceding 24-hours as only 24-hour panels are available for that time frame. It looks like it's bombing out not too far offshore of Cape Hatteras. From what I can tell, it looks to be improved from the 12z run. EDIT: The 00z GEFS look markedly better. The 00z Euro looks about the same (terrible). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 I am telling you...the models (this season),have ALWAYS shifted east and then start coming back on a more west track, whether it be rain or snow or wintry mix this season. Game is still VERY MUCH on for this potential winter storm. TBH, I am MORE EXCITED about this one than the Valentines day snow? Why? IF and ONLY IF we get the moisture raining down (like we have ALL SEASON LONG-ALWAYS MORE than progged) then we will be golden in NC and even the upstate. There will NOT be mixing issues. We REALLY need that track to work out and present climo says...IT WILL!! ;+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Oh and who cares about 2M temps attm? Soundings show right at 32 for 2M, on the surface. If we are sitting at 33-38 and have copious moisture, which has been proven ALL SEASON LONG, then we will have some record setting snow. Book em Dani! I mean it. Lived here too long. Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So has any one checked hires nam? Pretty stout system come Sunday. Mix to snow? Around 925 is a pain but aloft is supportive and a good CAD setup--backdoor fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So has any one checked hires nam? Pretty stout system come Sunday. Mix to snow? Around 925 is a pain but aloft is supportive and a good CAD setup--backdoor fashion. Looks like cold chasing moister to me maybe a brief change over to snow before ending in the mtns above 2500 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 NC piedmont wx, posted this on WRAL'S comments awhile ago: http://www.ncpiedmontweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Snowpossible-032514-B.jpg http://www.ncpiedmontweather.com/2014/03/22/models-trend-nw-as-expected-gfs-and-canadian/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 You have to look hard but 0z Uk is clearly better at 72 hours than Euro or GFS with 500 mb flow and precip . around E TX fwiw. It also is better at hour 60 than was the 12z uk at 72. Edit: Also, notice the sfc suggesting a Miller A trying to form at 72 just S of E LA in the GOM. Other mods have higher SLP there. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=072&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro ENS ticked NW some. GFS has been very consistent as it's ensembles have too. I do remember for the late Jan event the Euro was to far east at this range and then started to tick back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 6z GFS still looking decent precip-wise for the central and eastern piedmont an coastal plain. It seems like such a fine line wrt temps. If it bombs farther south, I'd feel better about temps. We still won't know for a while, but it is good to see the threat still there. Either way, no reason to get discouraged or overly excited yet. We continue to see the models shift around in the medium range. What a shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro ENS ticked NW some. GFS has been very consistent as it's ensembles have too. I do remember for the late Jan event the Euro was to far east at this range and then started to tick back west.You all in yet buddy? UK looked good from the eWall map. Can't see precip, but it looks like it would be healthy, given the track and strength.Edit: I would lean toward the euro coming back, if I had to make a call right now. I'm slightly encouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 You all in yet buddy? UK looked good from the eWall map. Can't see precip, but it looks like it would be healthy, given the track and strength. Edit: I would lean toward the euro coming back, if I had to make a call right now. I'm slightly encouraged. I'm not all in on this one...I don't like the timing and 2m temps that I'm seeing. I do think we'll see some snow, just not much in the way of accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 RNK is being rather bullish considering their usual uber-conservative approach .... Hazardous Weather OutlookHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA551 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-551 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY COMBINEDWITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROMTHE NORTHWEST AND THE ARRIVAL OF UNSEASONABLY COLD ARCTIC AIRWILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTEDTRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WELL EAST OF OUR REGION...SNOWFALL AMOUNTSARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ANDADJACENT COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAYAFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEEPENS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm not all in on this one...I don't like the timing and 2m temps that I'm seeing. I do think we'll see some snow, just not much in the way of accumulation. Probably a wise stance. In late March with marginal temps, you should give the nod to climo, which favors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Probably a wise stance. In late March with marginal temps, you should give the nod to climo, which favors I'm all in because we have nothing to lose. It's been a good winter and this would only be a bonus storm. (so)There is going to have to be a lot of things that line up just right for us to get a significant storm (> 2"). There are a lot of good signs right now but also a lot to worry about (time of day, surface temps, and precip rates / duration). I keep thinking about the major fail DC had last year. Looked like a sure thing to get a big storm but they never got anything to accumulate. All we can do is sit back and enjoy the (most likely) last winter storm tracking of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Im all in here in McDowell county in wnc. Im hopefull that climo will serve us right by tommrozs 12z euro cmc will come around and tick more nw. One thing I noticed last night on the 0Z gfs is the high was located around upstate new York at hr 68 if it slides out to see while the low is still in the ne gulf cud that help with some blocking and keep the track closer to the coast if not a little inland? Again im just a wienie trying to learn thanks for any input. Edit: The high was located around the upper Midwest in previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm all in because we have nothing to lose. It's been a good winter and this would only be a bonus storm. (so)There is going to have to be a lot of things that line up just right for us to get a significant storm (> 2"). There are a lot of good signs right now but also a lot to worry about (time of day, surface temps, and precip rates / duration). I keep thinking about the major fail DC had last year. Looked like a sure thing to get a big storm but they never got anything to accumulate. All we can do is sit back and enjoy the (most likely) last winter storm tracking of the year. Yeah, that's a pretty good way to look at it. If we're going to see accumulation, it'll be rate driven for sure. Anyway, it's very likely to be our last tracker. No real complaints about this winter....in context with recent ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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