Rankin5150 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Signs are pointing to some possible widespread wintry weather for the southeast early next week. Today's model runs point to a 1050 HP, widespread wintry precip and very cold temps behind the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 All in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 All in I've got the small blind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I've all ready been jinxed by the name not to be mentioned . Tweets about wintry weather possible for NGA and SC. The last two times that happened, I got 34 and rain and 33 and rain. So I'm out and I finally got a job , so I ain't got time to track a dud, but you NC boys bring it home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I've all ready been jinxed by the name not to be mentioned . Tweets about wintry weather possible for NGA and SC. The last two times that happened, I got 34 and rain and 33 and rain. So I'm out and I finally got a job , so I ain't got time to track a dud, but you NC boys bring it home! Sure will all the way to the middle of next month. The rate its going there might be 1 or 2 in the makings between the beginning and middle of April. Don't know why but April won't get out of my head But anyway back on topic. The 12z euro says not much to see here for 23/24th. Temps too warm aloft but its probably out to lunch considering this is another anafrontal system. It would possibly imply rain to rain/sleet for northern sections. 18z nam is crap anyway... moving the precip in the wrong direction. So time to wait for happy hour goofus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Sure will all the way to the middle of next month. The rate its going there might be 1 or 2 in the makings between the beginning and middle of April. Don't know why but April won't get out of my head But anyway back on topic. The 12z euro says not much to see here for 23/24th. Temps too warm aloft but its probably out to lunch considering this is another anafrontal system. It would possibly imply rain to rain/sleet for northern sections. 18z nam is crap anyway... moving the precip in the wrong direction. So time to wait for happy hour goofus. Matthew East @eastwx 2h 12z Euro is a very impressive run for NC snow fans. Don't get too excited (or upset) at this point... models all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Matthew East @eastwx 2h 12z Euro is a very impressive run for NC snow fans. Don't get too excited (or upset) at this point... models all over the place. Thats referring to the big system. Overall all the models indicating over running precip ahead of the main low. In actuallity it maybe 1 or 2 small systems(23rd/24th/25th) before the bigger system(25th/26th). Euro actually shows one wave the 23rd what I was talking about. GFS shows 3 impluses in the flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 It could be its happy hour GFS or not. But the 23rd system is still there and the 25th. But GFS has been insisting snow/wintry mix developing in the morning of the 23rd... Sunday. Shows precip moving in transitioning as colder air moves into the Northern Half of NC including the triad and triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 18z GFS not as diggy with the trough into the central states this run (for next Tues). It's faster and farther north. Ride the Euro suite til it let's us down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Bernie Rayno's assessment of threat area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Bernie Rayno's assessment of threat area His assessment is just like every accuweather forecast: DC and NE are in the zone , always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 12z EURO ensemble mean showing about half the snow that the operational had in the triad, 3" on the ensemble vs 6.5" on the operational. Good news is it's there and all but 9 of the 50 members show snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 His assessment is just like every accuweather forecast: DC and NE are in the zone , always! What model shows that track???? He is obviously factoring in his demographic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 What model shows that track???? He is obviously factoring in his demographic.He could still factor in his demographic without screwing us though. He may be counting on climo to some extent. The SE is not really favored for snow in late March, and the storm is still many days away. I'm just speculating though.Personally, the safest bet is the NW NC piedmont to the NE of there at this point, even though the Euro looks nice. If it keeps looking nice, I'll maybe kick in the big blind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I admit, this potential has gotten my attention. If the models show this on Saturday, then I will give us a pretty good chance of seeing some wintry precip. However, there are a lot of runs to go before that time. I like the suppressed look. You don't want to be in the "bulls-eye" at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 What model shows that track???? He is obviously factoring in his demographic. 00z Canadian and NAVGEM from today and the 12z Euro from yesterday and a few GFS runs. That L in the screen shot is huge and if you look at the line to the right of the L it's going way out to sea...that area of snow he thinks is where the cold air stops, haha...which isn't a bad guess...models could be overdoing the cold both with the high pressure out west and the CAD feeding high to the north that's moving out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 What model shows that track???? He is obviously factoring in his demographic.That's what I'm saying ! The map he showed with his picture. It's the same demographic they always show, until its snowing somewhere else! They must teach that well, JB still does it ! LOL!The models look good for the Carolina's , especially NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I wouldn't at all be shocked if that Accuweather depiction does end up being correct. The problem is that this is Accuweather and we cannot trust anything they come out with when it deals with the major I-95 cities, everyone else be damned. If you'll notice, coincidentally, every single city on the I-95 megalopolis from Richmond to the Canadian border is shaded in snow. Maybe it's a coincidence, but I'm skeptical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Sorry guys, I won't be in on this storm until the DGEX shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I'm in! If it fails to materialize I want track another winter weather event until next November! Speaking of November think about this winter, the ground was covered in Asheboro on The morning of November 13th. Look at all that has transpired since that time. Multiple record cold events. Everyone going above their seasonal snowfall averages. But I tell you if mby gets a accumulating snowfall early next week, I will remember this March and the 4 events as the most phenomenal aspect. Regardless of climo and really common sense, it just feels like we can't loose anymore. Maybe it's because it's late March and our expectations are in check with reality. In other words we are playing with house money now. If it happens great, if not none of us would really be surprised and just happily move on along to the garden,fishing hole, golf course e.t.c. But oh to see it just pound snow one more good time. Forget the 1inch stuff, I want a early spring Rocky Mountain snow bomb type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Just read a good read from Robert @WXSouth. Sounds very encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Yes, WxSouth is starting to really sound the alarm about this. He said it could be even further south than the Euro is showing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Yes, WxSouth is starting to really sound the alarm about this. He said it could be even further south than the Euro is showing now. He also believes it will be colder than what models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 From WXSouth: Updated the extended outlook...if you're a monthly member, you should have been notified via email (if you chose that option). Be sure to check your spam folder. Yes, another Winter Storm looks likely, and I'm leaning that it will be further south and west than Even the European shows right now (explained why in discussion). The strong divergence is massive on both GFS and ECMWF on Monday in the Plains so this argues for supressed track but northern stream to dominate and initiate the cyclogenesis process along the Gulf Coast. Two big highs are in place, and crashing heights aloft argue for dynamic cooling to snow levels even further south than Models show right now, including down to Birmingham, Atlanta, Columbia before ending possibly. Could be a Major Storm along the East Coast if all ingredients come together perfectly, and the models are trying to tell us that because various runs have shown an extremely deep cyclone bombing just off the East Coast. Very interesting storm coming up,one that will have several twists to it. More snow, ice, wind coming in for beleagered MidAtlantic for sure, but this time probably having more effects further inland and southwest to encompass the TN Valley region and southern Apps as well. Major Cold, record cold, will follow the storm. I'd refrain from jump starting any early gardening just yet, pretty much anywhere in the eastern half of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Well I'd love nothing more than for it to come to fruition but I have zero confidence for any of it for the upstate (west of Gaffney/Rock Hill). Despite the historic winter for most, it has really only been so-so for my area. Sounds like it has been a great winter for NC northward, but for us in NEGA and upstate the screw job has really been in play. I can see more cold rain for us, but I think I have a better chance of scratching off the winning powerball number while on a date with Kate Uptown, just before lighting strikes from one side with a meteorite bearing down from the other, just as Wofford is hoisting their NCAA national championship trophy, as I do of seeing any snow here in the western upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 From WXSouth: Updated the extended outlook...if you're a monthly member, you should have been notified via email (if you chose that option). Be sure to check your spam folder. Yes, another Winter Storm looks likely, and I'm leaning that it will be further south and west than Even the European shows right now (explained why in discussion). The strong divergence is massive on both GFS and ECMWF on Monday in the Plains so this argues for supressed track but northern stream to dominate and initiate the cyclogenesis process along the Gulf Coast. Two big highs are in place, and crashing heights aloft argue for dynamic cooling to snow levels even further south than Models show right now, including down to Birmingham, Atlanta, Columbia before ending possibly. Could be a Major Storm along the East Coast if all ingredients come together perfectly, and the models are trying to tell us that because various runs have shown an extremely deep cyclone bombing just off the East Coast. Very interesting storm coming up,one that will have several twists to it. More snow, ice, wind coming in for beleagered MidAtlantic for sure, but this time probably having more effects further inland and southwest to encompass the TN Valley region and southern Apps as well. Major Cold, record cold, will follow the storm. I'd refrain from jump starting any early gardening just yet, pretty much anywhere in the eastern half of the country. Robert has been one of the best this winter.Back in Dec when the storms were App runners he told us the truth .Also he said with time the storm track would drop south and go up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NASpear Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Just saw Emily Byrd on FOX8 News .She says rain and 42 for high temp Tues .Mon& Wed 50's.She did say may have to watch morning temps for Tues but that's all.Said temps would cool behind front.Not cold cool. If memory serves me correct,and it does this time, she forcasted a mild winter for NC back in December. Yes she did. Van Denton is the best on ch8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 RNK 2pm Discussion ... .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE FORECAST BY DIVERGEINTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THEY HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPERPATTERN...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN.TREND FROM BOTH STILL FAVORS A SHOT OF WINTRY WX PERHAPS NEXTTUESDAY AS COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE WITH SRN LOW FORMING ALONG THEGULF COAST AND SHIFTING OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS HAVEBEEN SUPRESSING THIS WITH NRN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD NOSING INTO SRNVA...WITH BULK OF MOISTURE STAYING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOWWILL HAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE NEXT TUESDAY.PRIOR TO THIS...WILL SEE ONE FRONT EXITED BY SATURDAYEVENING...STALLING OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOME DIFFERENCE INGFS/ECMWF AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THEFRONT ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST STATES...PULLING MOISTURE BACKNORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SRN CWA POSSIBLE...WHILEAN NRN STREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SLIGHT CHANCEOF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NRN CWA. THIS WAVE RETURNS THE COLDERTHAN NORMAL AIR INTO OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH BRUNT OF THE COLDAIR ARRIVES BY MONDAY.SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLANDMONDAY NIGHT. INTERACTION BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAM AND DEVELOPMENTOF SRN STREAM LOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR TUESDAYS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I had seen several posts from James about the early 70's having several NC winter storms in late March. I already had known about the major 3/25-6/71 SE storm affecting GA/SC/NC. I hadn't known about any other winter storms in the early 70's because ATL/SAV hadn't received any sig. wintry precip. However, I just finished researching old late March daily data for 1972-4 and found that they all produced sig. wintry precip. in the piedmont of NC in late March: 3/25-6/71, 3/25/72, 3/21/73, and 3/25/74. Even more amazing is that the 3/25-6 period produced sig to major wintry precip. during the 3/25-6 period during three years of that four year period!! (Aside: there was also a big snow 3/24/1983.) By the way, at GSO, there was also moderate ZR on 3/23/1989 and 1.2" of SN at GSO on 3/30/2003. With there being a progged threat for late 3/24 through 3/25, perhaps this has an even better chance than even I had realized based on this climo pattern, especially for NC and extra especially for GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 gfs at hour 132 looks pretty darn good Cant believe im saying that in mid march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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