GD0815 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Snowgoose from the NYC thread on the inverted trough and why it won't work out down here as modeled "They will never get hit by the inverted trof, if that thing verifies it'll end up here or NE of here, the only way that region gets hit by inverted trofs is by systems that track closer to the coast, they usually get systematically involved inverted trofs, not inverted trofs on their own." Ray may know this but I feel like there was an inverted trough that actually jackpotted in PHL, maybe Feb 2008? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Snowgoose from the NYC thread on the inverted trough and why it won't work out down here as modeled "They will never get hit by the inverted trof, if that thing verifies it'll end up here or NE of here, the only way that region gets hit by inverted trofs is by systems that track closer to the coast, they usually get systematically involved inverted trofs, not inverted trofs on their own." Ray may know this but I feel like there was an inverted trough that actually jackpotted in PHL, maybe Feb 2008? Philly can get them, it was Feb 09. That said, I won't be on the "inverted trough" bandwagon til no earlier than tomorrow 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Philly can get them, it was Feb 09. That said, I won't be on the "inverted trough" bandwagon til no earlier than tomorrow 12Z. definitely agree, it is a longshot at best. The Feb 09 event had some heavy rates, if i remember correctly it was about 8 inches in a 4-5 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 this would be a surprise and impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Oh look, there's a NAO on the LR EURO, only took all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Oh look, there's a NAO on the LR EURO, only took all winter. I still got 68.6" without it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I still got 68.6" without it . Ha, no complaints here either...March does leave a bitter taste in my mouth...feel like we left a ton of snow on the table. We missed 6-12" last week in DC/S NJ..We have a 960mb low passing near us with cold air available and we're getting flurries lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Ha, no complaints here either...March does leave a bitter taste in my mouth...feel like we left a ton of snow on the table. We missed 6-12" last week in DC/S NJ..We have a 960mb low passing near us with cold air available and we're getting flurries lol. it's not really all that near us, all things considered. and it isnt like this was ever a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Hurricane's thoughts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Winds gusting pretty good....more Glenn at 11:50am: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 coating to 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 coating to 1" Overnight w/a little wind....I'll take it. It's almost April.....thinking 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Good luck to Glenn. If correct I'll take it. If I was a forecaster I'd be a little nervous watching this one develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 The Euro op finally woke up and cut QPF by about half, at TTN anyway. I'm keeping my unofficial guestimate of a coating to 2 inches back home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The Euro op finally woke up and cut QPF by about half, at TTN anyway. I'm keeping my unofficial guestimate of a coating to 2 inches back home. Did heavier precip shift south? The MA forum is saying just the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Good luck to Glenn. If correct I'll take it. If I was a forecaster I'd be a little nervous watching this one develop. His map is like the NWS so I feel like thats a good hedge. If he's wrong he can always say, "Oh thats what the NWS said too" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Did heavier precip shift south? The MA forum is saying just the opposite. yes, it shifted south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Don Sutherland on the NYC subforum compiled this, good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Other than eastern NE, the places with the best shot at some decent accum(few inches) may be parts of Delmarva and Southern/eastern NJ. This may occur as the coastal just gets going with some good frontogensis for a time, and before the storm consolidates and bombs and the precip shield contracts as it moves further north. The Canadian and NAM hinting at this, and to some extent the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 so is the 18z nam the trend other models will start to follow? probably not but stay tuned for 0z's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 so is the 18z nam the trend other models will start to follow? probably not but stay tuned for 0z's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 so is the 18z nam the trend other models will start to follow? probably not but stay tuned for 0z's what did it do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 so is the 18z nam the trend other models will start to follow? probably not but stay tuned for 0z's still only a grazing for most of us, although jersey shore and southern del. look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 what did it do? The thing we always think of it doing on the 18Z run before a storm... amping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The thing we always think of it doing on the 18Z run before a storm... amping up. but of course...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Lol, typical 18z NAM run a day before a storm. Ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Lol, typical 18z NAM run a day before a storm. Ignore. I really dont buy into the 18z part, but I agree that the NAM needs to be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism. I feel like I have seen the NAM blow up and bring coastals too far west for a run or two at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 ONLY way I'd consider it is if the 18z RGEM comes in similarly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 FWIW, Ray do the soundings support snow down the shore here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 FWIW, Ray do the soundings support snow down the shore here? Yes. May be rain briefly at the onset but should transition to snow later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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