famartin Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 GFS remains well east. Still brings a bit of snow with the northern stream feature, maybe an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Ill take a inch or two. Just need one nore wintry like day, although, today was very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Been away for the last week with the Phightin Phils in Clearwater but back for our last potential winter weather event of the season. The latest Wxsim with 6z data has trended a bit snowier here is the run down for NW Chester County Snow arrives on Tuesday AM with moderate snow by 10am temp at 27.9 Moderate Snow at 1pm temp at 32.1 with 1.5" snow so far Moderate Snow at 4pm temp at 31.2 with 2.5" snow so far Snow winds down by 7pm with a total of 3.0" All that said the time of day could be a bit of a limiting factor so a couple inches looks like a possibility as Chester County makes a run at the 80" mark for snow this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Nice discussion from Mt. Holly with graphics. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43223-late-march-wintry-threat/page-26#entry2901315 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The January 1993 storm was 914 mb over the far North Atlantic (southeast of Iceland I believe) but that probably doesn't count. I did not know this. then, again I didn't look at the models back then neither. impressive....major hurricane pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Congrats on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Congrats on the Nam would be nice if they used a super computer to speed up the processing. the wait....just prolongs the torture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Congrats on the Nam Better chance I win the lottery than that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Better chance I win the lottery than that happening. It happened in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It happened in December The question is does lightening strike twice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Nice discussion from Mt. Holly with graphics. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43223-late-march-wintry-threat/page-26#entry2901315 They must have been reading Doorman's posts..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 12z models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 12z models Not quite but for some it probably feels like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro is a smidge east but not a radical shift.My early guestimate for the Trenton area is a range I've used a lot lately... between a coating and 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 yup, tough one to swallow...compared to how much of a beast it'll be over the ocean. ghost town here compared to NYC. 300 viewing vs. 30 viewing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 yup, tough one to swallow...compared to how much of a beast it'll be over the ocean. ghost town here compared to NYC. 300 viewing vs. 30 viewing.. I think many here realized a while ago this was a lost cause. PNA and the NAO were not cooperating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro does give the area .4-.5 qpf - similar to the NAM. Nothing to sneeze at even if it's unlikely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 interesting few days coming up....tomorrow forecast high is 20 degrees below normal, and we still may see some snow tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro does give the area .4-.5 qpf - similar to the NAM. Nothing to sneeze at even if it's unlikely at this point. Except its spread out over 12-18 hours and some is during the day during late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Not saying it would be a crippling snowfall. Just wouldn't sneeze at it, myself. Maybe you and I have a different sneeze threshold? I would take one last light accumulation to top of my winter of unending 2-3 inch events. Especially since it would melt in under a day regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Not saying it would be a crippling snowfall. Just wouldn't sneeze at it, myself. Maybe you and I have a different sneeze threshold? I would take one last light accumulation to top of my winter of unending 2-3 inch events. Especially since it would melt in under a day regardless. You're not quite understanding me, since that QPF would not be 10:1 ratio snowfall. Significantly lower than that. And with most other guidance drier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The new SREF still has that inverted trough precip over our area, FWIW, my guess is the NAM shows it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I understand you completely. I don't think you understand me. My point was that the Euro was .4 to .5 qpf of snow. I realize that with sun angle/lighter rates it would be a minor accumulation. Any accumulation March 26th is pretty rare though so I wouldn't sneeze at it. Not saying its a 5 inch event. Just saying its worthy of discussion especially since it's a bit of a change from recent runs on a storm we've really been out of the running on for days. The reaction here was that the Euro was a disappointment or non-event when this run was actually quite a bit better even if the end result wasn't a significant snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I understand you completely. I don't think you understand me. My point was that the Euro was .4 to .5 qpf of snow. I realize that with sun angle/lighter rates it would be a minor accumulation. Any accumulation March 26th is pretty rare though so I wouldn't sneeze at it. Not saying its a 5 inch event. Just saying its worthy of discussion especially since it's a bit of a change from recent runs on a storm we've really been out of the running on for days. The reaction here was that the Euro was a disappointment or non-event when this run was actually quite a bit better even if the end result wasn't a significant snowfall. 0.4-0.5" of qpf over 12-18hrs in late march would not be 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 At this point I'm hoping for something on the ground. It would have been nice to have gotten blasted, but some accumulation even if minor would be better in my mind than just cloudy with north winds while this beast rides up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 My point was the Euro doubled qpf. That's all. I would certainly take my chances on getting a couple of inches of snow out of .5qpf if this one model run scenario played out which as I prefaced my initial post is unlikely. SREF are also around .5 qpf with a mean of 4.85 at KPHL. Obviously it's the SREF at longer range still. Just reporting the model output. No need for 30 posts pointing out how unreliable the SREFS can be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Mt Holly has a snowmap up. 1-2 inches in the city. 2-4 in the southern Poconos/NWNJ. 18Z NAM much less impressive with qpf. No surprise there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Mt Holly has a snowmap up. 1-2 inches in the city. 2-4 in the southern Poconos/NWNJ. Not sure what they are thinking with 2-4 inches up in my area. One can wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 My point was the Euro doubled qpf. That's all. I would certainly take my chances on getting a couple of inches of snow out of .5qpf if this one model run scenario played out which as I prefaced my initial post is unlikely. SREF are also around .5 qpf with a mean of 4.85 at KPHL. Obviously it's the SREF at longer range still. Just reporting the model output. No need for 30 posts pointing out how unreliable the SREFS can be... the problem is that the Sref's have the inverted trough set up right over the area. These are notoriously hard to pinpoint this far in advance, and we usually aren't in the best location to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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