bluehens Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 If its 1-3" for PHL that will melt in 2 hours once the sun comes out then I don't want it.....don't need kids having another day of school closed for now real good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 remember that models swing drastically dependent on the accuracy of initially observed data. which is why so frequently we see when 1 model swings, the others do the same. ...wonder what specifically did it for 12z though. (eastward shift) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 You watch, the GFS will start showing a big hit and then EURO will go even farther East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 remember that models swing drastically dependent on the accuracy of initially observed data. which is why so frequently we see when 1 model swings, the others do the same. ...wonder what specifically did it for 12z though. (eastward shift) Well, each run we get closer to the event, butterfly effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 true...true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Based on how the last few systems have turned out, if we don't see a significant shift west by any model by 12Z Sunday, the chances of a big hit on this one will decrease (not that they're high now, but just saying, I think you guys have til then for a "big miracle") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Based on how the last few systems have turned out, if we don't see a significant shift west by any model by 12Z Sunday, the chances of a big hit on this one will decrease (not that they're high now, but just saying, I think you guys have til then for a "big miracle") Well this winter rocked except for the March misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Well this winter rocked except for the March misses The absence of a -NAO has taken its toll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Well this winter rocked except for the March misses No misses at the beaches in March! You nailed this past Monday for us shore folk!! Almost a foot here! Looks like measureable snow again even with it being east. Still want it to bomb though closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Going to be painful watching this one miss Wilmington, DE: 55.4" for the season and 35.8" above the seasonal norm, and this storm missing east is going to be painful? My God, what more do some of you guys want??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Wilmington, DE: 55.4" for the season and 35.8" above the seasonal norm, and this storm missing east is going to be painful? My God, what more do some of you guys want??? I find myself thinking the same thing often enough lately But to answer your question: They want a record season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
56er Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Wilmington, DE: 55.4" for the season and 35.8" above the seasonal norm, and this storm missing east is going to be painful? My God, what more do some of you guys want??? We want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 maybe this can help with bringing it closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 At this point what are the chances Philly sees snow ... any snow ... accumulating or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Wilmington May have had 55" for the season, but a lot of us downstate lost out on some storms that they cashed in on, so I'm pulling for one last huge storm to Close out winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 At this point what are the chances Philly sees snow ... any snow ... accumulating or not Pretty good, actually. Above 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 GFS is a bit northwest, which is good. Also faster, which is not good, as now most of the precip falls during daylight... not good during late March. Of course this will change another dozen or so times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Seems like all guidance, Euro included, ticked northwest and a bit faster tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GFS at 6z is a miss again. Media is picking up on the storm, heard historic late season snow storm likely midweek this morning. Mention Bombing storm. What models are showing hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Models have bee amazingly consistent with this storm compared to many of the previous ones. I sort of like the fact that right now we are not in the bulls eye. How often when we are in the perfect position 3 or 4 days out does the track remain the same on D-Day? Sure the track could end up further east or west but I would rather be pleasantly surprised come Tuesday by a track further west than be in a perfect position for a long period of tracking only to have the track go to further east or west which frequently happens. The way things stand now the track is so close I won't write it off until radar proves we aren't getting a decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Pretty good, actually. Above 50%. awesome! Thought it was a lot lower! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It is becoming clear this storm will be well off the coast. Unless 12z starts the westward trend I think its almost time to pack it in on this one for the big cities (except maybe Boston). I know 0z ticked west but we need a trend to begin.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It is becoming clear this storm will be well off the coast. Unless 12z starts the westward trend I think its almost time to pack it in on this one for the big cities (except maybe Boston). I know 0z ticked west but we need a trend to begin.. Hoping the 12Z runs come in better. This season has taught me to be very pessamistic with storms. If nothing changes by the 0Z runs, I agree that the " N'Easter Bomb" is for the fishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Hoping the 12Z runs come in better. This season has taught me to be very pessamistic with storms. If nothing changes by the 0Z runs, I agree that the " N'Easter Bomb" is for the fishes. Huh??? We are like 2nd all time snowfall here for the year?? Right?? The word Pssamistic with this winter should not be heard....Oh wait it is March 22nd too right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 TheGFS is way ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Huh??? We are like 2nd all time snowfall here for the year?? Right?? The word Pssamistic with this winter should not be heard....Oh wait it is March 22nd too right? I don't know the stats off-hand in NW NJ, but the area is a pretty large distance from Philly, and I don't think they've been blessed in the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I don't know the stats off-hand in NW NJ, but the area is a pretty large distance from Philly, and I don't think they've been blessed in the same way. We have not. Just slight above normal for my area at around 73-74 inches for the year. Last year we got 65 inches. A big year in my area is around 100 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 TheGFS is way ots This one looks done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This one looks done ehh, not yet. The good news : there haven't been any major shifts well-offshore yet. Still in the ballpark, still possible. 959 - 960 mb's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 For our area, writing is just about on the wall. Come tonight we might need to rely on a Boxing Day miracle shift....However, coastal NE still looks like they're in good shape & I'm considering traveling for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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