yankeex777 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Tony (Rainshadow) has posted elsewhere, that he believes that the "tucked in" models (12Z Euro and 0Z GGEM) are suffering badly from convective feedback. Whats your opinion? Is this groundhogs day all over again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 HM is on a tear in the mid-atl forum for anyone that cares. He's pretty much dismantling the "convective feedback" theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Whats your opinion? Is this groundhogs day all over again? My opinion is, as with HM, there's still a lot on the table and I wouldn't rule anything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Fair assessment. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 12z gfs east, less phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 12z gfs east, less phasing. yea, but 500 vort is slightly more interesting...and trying to close off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 sunday is the key day , IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 sunday is the key day , IMHO Probably missing east this time but it's good we aren't having our hopes high in the stratosphere at this point with 18" of model snow by the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Probably missing east this time but it's good we aren't having our hopes high in the stratosphere at this point with 18" of model snow by the GGEM If GGEM is right again, it should get the Model of the Year award. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Heck of a low on UKMET, euro up next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 If GGEM is right again, it should get the Model of the Year award. Huh? Last night the GGEM had 20" of snow for Philly. Not sure what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 No precip map with that UK but im sure it would indicate a good amount of snow with that position of the low GGEM is similiar to GFS a bit west of it but certainly no snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 GGEM color map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Huh? Last night the GGEM had 20" of snow for Philly. Not sure what you mean. Missed last nights GGEM so it did its fantasy run thing eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Missed last nights GGEM so it did its fantasy run thing eh Just saw it and a big GGEM 3 for 3 this march with the 120 hour monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 ECM is a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Main change in the 12Z EC vs 0Z is that its more consolidated. Not much different for low track, a tad west perhaps, but not much difference in precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Starting to get that sinking feeling, we're certainly going to want to see a bump NW @ 00z..Pretty crappy feeling after yesterday 12z EURO OP/ENS.... What a waste of a monster low if the 12z EURO verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Starting to get that sinking feeling, we're certainly going to want to see a bump NW @ 00z..Pretty crappy feeling after yesterday 12z EURO OP/ENS.... What a waste of a monster low if the 12z EURO verifies. still 4 days to go my man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 still 4 days to go my man. I know, but once we get into that 84-96 hour mark we're going to want to see at least some data showing a hit. Today we were 0/everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Starting to get that sinking feeling, we're certainly going to want to see a bump NW @ 00z..Pretty crappy feeling after yesterday 12z EURO OP/ENS.... What a waste of a monster low if the 12z EURO verifies. There's still time for this to trend west. I wouldn't completely give up until the end of the weekend when everything will be onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 There's still time for this to trend west. I wouldn't completely give up until the end of the weekend when everything will be onshore. I'm not disagreeing, but would like to see some hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Going to be painful watching this one miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Going to be painful watching this one miss Unless you have property at the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I will say, this storm originates near the pole where I doubt there is much data.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Unless you have property at the shore. Yeah exactly! I think this aspect of the storm is being severly underplayed IMO. A miss off the coast or not, this is gonna be a huge problem for anyone along the immediate coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Even with the "miss", there's still a decent shot at 1-3" from I-95 on south and east. Assuming that the BL isn't too warm to just melt on contact... and that subsidence away from the low center doesn't end up killing most of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Even with the "miss", there's still a decent shot at 1-3" from I-95 on south and east. Assuming that the BL isn't too warm to just melt on contact... and that subsidence away from the low center doesn't end up killing most of the precip. I'm starting to think 1-3 may make it to TTN. GFS members rare fairly good at 12Z. Haven't heard anything about the mean Euro although the operational is just a brush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Soon the euro will destroy Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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