SNOW~DAZE Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Could someone please comment on timing of storm as currently modeled? I'm flying into Philly late Tuesday night from Dallas and I'm wondering how my chances of landing at PHL are looking. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 Could someone please comment on timing of storm as currently modeled? I'm flying into Philly late Tuesday night from Dallas and I'm wondering how my chances of landing at PHL are looking. Thanks! Not great. If the Euro is right, forgetaboutit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 One of the Euro ensemble members has 939 mb (not a typo) off ACY with 1-3 feet DC-BOS. Just seeing that on a model is worth saying wow. Sounds like a snowercane! 939 mb would break the Sandy record of 940 mb, if i'm not mistaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 Sounds like a snowercane! 939 mb would break the Sandy record of 940 mb, if i'm not mistaken? East of ACY and not making landfall, so no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 East of ACY and not making landfall, so no. Okay it seemed to impossible to be true. Even so still very impressive number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 EURO Control is nuts, again. Some epic members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 EURO Control is nuts, again. Some epic members. You mean its back to being nuts after having been well east. Edit: Actually its about the same as the Euro op. The one thing this winter has proven is that no model is fool-proof, infallible, or perfect. Even the mighty Euro. And even overall consensus can end up being wrong from just 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 You mean its back to being nuts after having been well east. Edit: Actually its about the same as the Euro op. The one thing this winter has proven is that no model is fool-proof, infallible, or perfect. Even the mighty Euro. And even overall consensus can end up being wrong from just 72 hours out. Debbie downer! just kidding you are the voice of reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Euro ensembles are insane Insane would imply wide spread 2 to 3 feet of snow. Mt Holly NWS still seems unimpressed with event after reading their discussion. Lots of code words used during the write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Playing it cautious after the last few storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I think I just guaranteed we get hammered.........I just bought a new WRX and they come with summer/performance tires. Will be waiting until fall to get good all seasons for it. Looks like I'll have to put in vacation for the 25th and 26th just in case lol. By the way it's a WHITE hatchback....not that any of us like that color or anything...... (I wanted to wait a bit but the 2014 is not made anymore so it was either get it now or risk not being able to find one, or at least the style/color I wanted....and this was already like choice C lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Congrats on the WRX. I have a 2007 Wagon WRX. Fun. Hopefully wagon will return when I'm due for another. I run snows during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 00z GFS is a miss, but it was very close from delivering an epic storm, some great improvements. This one is getting very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 00z GFS is a miss, but it was very close from delivering an epic storm, some great improvements. This one is getting very interesting.Exactly where we want it with enough time to shift enough west to deliver us some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 GFS is an improvement could be starting to come NW with it's southeast bias with miller A's. Some anxiety with tomorrows model runs, both previous threats had us in feet of snow at 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 WOW GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 0Z Euro shifted east with a later phase; brushes the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 WOW GGEM Looks even bigger than its last 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Looks even bigger than its last 0z. Been terrible recently. Always produces a nice coastal storm. Reality is no models show a hit. Sure it can change, but trend is not your friend. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 GGEM has not been terrible Euro yesterday was big for all at 12z GFS did come closer and has last two days slowly NWS not fully on board but definitely talking about poss of a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 6Z GFS is west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Sunday runs will be the ones to really watch until then a lot of fluctuation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 6z ticked west a bit.. 0Z- 6Z- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 6z ticked west a bit.. 0Z- 6Z- Its slightly west at 108 and 114, but its actually a little EAST at 120 and 126, compared to 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Its slightly west at 108 and 114, but its actually a little EAST at 120 and 126, compared to 0Z. 6Z looks a tad bit more north or 'faster' too. Its most likely all noise at this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Tony (Rainshadow) has posted elsewhere, that he believes that the "tucked in" models (12Z Euro and 0Z GGEM) are suffering badly from convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 WPC has encouraging words WITH THE REESTABLISHMENT OF CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BAROCLINICITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE. THE LATE-MARCH SUN CONTINUES TO WARM AREAS SOUTH OF THE POLAR FRONT, WITH THE INFUSION OF NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS THERMAL CONTRAST IS, OF COURSE, PART AND PARCEL OF THE JET STREAM, WHICH IN TURN PROVIDES THE BACKGROUND ENERGY FOR THE PERTURBATIONS WENDING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME OF THE DEEPEST EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IN MODERN RECORD-KEEPING HAVE AFFECTED THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH--THEIR GENESIS AFFORDED BY THE MONTH'S NATURAL BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY.ONCE SUCH PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO GROW VIGOROUSLY AS IT LIFTS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING, THEN BOMB OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE JET STRENGTHENS VIA AN INJECTION OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE MIDWEST. MANY MODELS--INCLUDING THE 00Z/21 GFS--DEEPEN THE OCEAN STORM BELOW 970MB NEAR THE ATLANTIC BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THIS PARTICULAR SET OF MANUAL PROGS, RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ECENS MEAN FOR A BEARING, SINCE NOT ALL THE GUIDANCE WAS YET ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE PARTICULARS OF THE CYCLONE. THE ECENS MEAN HAS SHOWN HIGH SKILL AT THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH SURFACE PRESSURES, AND SEEMS TO OFTEN ARRIVE AT A STABLE SOLUTION A DAY OR SO SOONER THAN MUCH OF THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.THE EAST-COAST CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LATE-SEASON HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER A WIDE SWATH OF REAL ESTATE FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND; THAT IS A GENERALITY AT THIS POINT. MUCH REMAINS IN TERMS OF REFINING THE FORECAST STATE BY STATE. ANOTHER HIGH-IMPACT FACTOR WILL BE THE POWERFUL WINDS GENERATED BY THIS SPRAWLING, INTENSE CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS, BEACH BATTERY, COASTAL FLOODING, AND SO FORTH. AGAIN, AT THIS POINT, SUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER EFFECTS ARE SIMPLY ATTENDANT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUCH A STORM.[/indent] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Tony (Rainshadow) has posted elsewhere, that he believes that the "tucked in" models (12Z Euro and 0Z GGEM) to be suffering badly from convective feedback. I have noticed that dual low structure, it seems once the phase is occurring the models are bending the isobars closer to the coast and developing a separate low closer to us. Like the GGEM. The 12z EURO showed this yesterday as well. It actually seems that the initial southern low hurts our chances as it kind of sets the baroclinic zone farther out to sea. Even if it is convective feedback, is something like this possible regardless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 6Z looks a tad bit more north or 'faster' too. Its most likely all noise at this point though. Only at 108 and 114. Here's a little plot. Green is 0Z, yellow is 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 I have noticed that dual low structure, it seems once the phase is occurring the models are bending the isobars closer to the coast and developing a separate low closer to us. Like the GGEM. The 12z EURO showed this yesterday as well. It actually seems that the initial southern low hurts our chances as it kind of sets the baroclinic zone farther out to sea. Even if it is convective feedback, is something like this possible regardless? If its convective feedback, then no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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