Quakertown needs snow Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 start preparing yourself eh, I just won't watch radar's etc if thats the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 WPC for next week MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE CONVERGED UPON A MORE COMPATABLE/WELL CLUSTERED SOLUTION COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. THIS BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PATTERN AS AN ERN NOAM MEAN TROUGH AMPLIFIES WELL DOWNSTREAM FROM AN ERN PAC/ALASKA REX BLOCK...WITH RIDGING BUILDING AND WORKING INTO THE WRN US IN BETWEEN. IN THIS PATTERN THERE MEANWHILE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR LATE MARCH. THE BEST CONSENSUS FOR WRN ATLANTIC COASTAL STORM INTENSIFICATION TUE-WED GIVES THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THE HIGHEST THREAT OF MEANINGFUL LATE SEASON SNOW/WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 eh, I just won't watch radar's etc if thats the case. Yeah but we like your radar posts during storms and even non-events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 GFS could be a nice hit. Slightly slower and less progressive at 120. EDIT : same sheet...just another brush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Color maps for GGEM? hour 138 also besides 144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 monster low on gem. tad to far of the coast for inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 ukmet, tad too far east but nice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Check out the 12z GGEM Ensembles. Some are monsters. http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=132&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=144&Day=&RunTime=12&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 12Z GGEM blows up the low slower than the 0Z run did. Less snow overall with an increasing trend as one goes northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 12z euro, further west so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 snowing 126-144hr, hvy snows at 138 for s.jersey/del. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 6-12 along I-95, less NW, probably around a foot near the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 precip makes it much futher west and north on this run but as ray mentioned less precip. n/w nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 If that was the furthest this came west I'd be satisfied. Lots of time for this to move further west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 any accumulating snows this late around here is a huge bonus. ray hold off on those seasonal snow maps for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 most falls during the night so sun angle not an issue, maybe moon angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 FWIW: WB ECMWF 10:1 Snow Maps, 12” coast, 10” PHL, 8” Upper Bucks/Mont., 7” ABE, 5” Poconos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 most falls during the night so sun angle not an issue, maybe moon angle Which would be huge...daytime March snow storms don't mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 Alot of the precip locally, especially down by DC, is due to the phase happening right nearby. A lot of models try to develop a double low structure for a little while as it phases. The main differences between the GFS whiff and the Euro hit is the phase location, with the GFS obviously just a bit further east than the EC. The low track down by and south of Hatteras is actually just about identical between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 FWIW: WB ECMWF 10:1 Snow Maps, 12” coast, 10” PHL, 8” Upper Bucks/Mont., 7” ABE, 5” Poconos Philly needs 11 for the record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 most falls during the night so sun angle not an issue, maybe moon angle Thankfully it wont be a "full moon" less reflection too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Alot of the precip locally, especially down by DC, is due to the phase happening right nearby. A lot of models try to develop a double low structure for a little while as it phases. The main differences between the GFS whiff and the Euro hit is the phase location, with the GFS obviously just a bit further east than the EC. The low track down by and south of Hatteras is actually just about identical between the two. Thanks for the analysis. So close and there is plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 #25 1 minute ago all i say aout the euro ens is....../ OOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMGGGGG.... __________________________________ 1000mb just east of the outer banks @ 132 .1"-.25" over us.. 996 over the BM @ 138.... .25-.5" frozen over western NJ and points west.850's & thickness well offshore.... 142-992 over the BM. .1-.25" over us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro ensembles are insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro ensembles are insane Like what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 So number three from the euro in March eh? Hope everybody is familiar with Lucy and the football... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 One of the Euro ensemble members has 939 mb (not a typo) off ACY with 1-3 feet DC-BOS. Just seeing that on a model is worth saying wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 So number three from the euro in March eh? Hope everybody is familiar with Lucy and the football... but the third time is the charm ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 but the third time is the charm ;-) I don't think that ever worked for Charlie Brown, did it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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