famartin Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 On 3/25/2014 at 5:11 AM, KamuSnow said: I saw you asking for the GGEM (zwyts, lol), from what I can tell it's a little more generous around here than 12z, now 1" or 2" as opposed to 1" or less. Extreme south/coastal jersey is a little more, looks like maybe 3 or 4", but it didn't appear to change from 12z there much. edit: around here meaning general SEPA including Ambler. Well, actually its really close to the same, a little more generous southwest of Philly but not as generous northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 And UKMET hates New England as much as the GFS, btw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Dr No has no snow accumulations in SEPA. 1" DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 On 3/25/2014 at 6:13 AM, RedSky said: Dr No has no snow accumulations in SEPA. 1" DE Its not that bad. Has an inch or so at PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 On 3/25/2014 at 6:20 AM, famartin said: Its not that bad. Has an inch or so at PHL. southern NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 On 3/25/2014 at 6:22 AM, wasnow215 said: southern NJ? You are near Cape May, right? Down there, the boundary layer is warm so it hurts... I'm guessing 1-3". There's about 0.60" precip but temps never drop below 33, and you probably lose at least half to rain or white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 On 3/25/2014 at 6:44 AM, famartin said: You are near Cape May, right? Down there, the boundary layer is warm so it hurts... I'm guessing 1-3". There's about 0.60" precip but temps never drop below 33, and you probably lose at least half to rain or white rain. Yeah, actually inland of Avalon/Sea Isle. Thanks Ray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Latest SREF a bit wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 On 3/25/2014 at 7:13 AM, wasnow215 said: Latest SREF a bit wetter In your area yes. Its tightening the gradient, with areas north of PHL getting drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 On 3/25/2014 at 7:27 AM, famartin said: In your area yes. Its tightening the gradient, with areas north of PHL getting drier. Hmm when have we heard that before?? Although they may have been for different reasons I feel like that is exactly what has happened the past 2 storms here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 On 3/25/2014 at 8:13 AM, JSchwake28 said: Hmm when have we heard that before?? Although they may have been for different reasons I feel like that is exactly what has happened the past 2 storms here Kinda feels like that, there's so much dry air in place it looks kinda like, once the storm starts to bomb out, the dry air is wrapped in and puts an end to any precip which tries to make it north of PHL. Of course that could be subsidence on the periphery, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 NAM is gonna NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Good morning it is 18F in my backyard in Allaire and 13F at the pocono cabin. While today is March 25th it could just as well be January X. Hope this one can over perform in some way. Would be a nice way to wrap the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 On 3/25/2014 at 6:04 AM, famartin said: Well, actually its really close to the same, a little more generous southwest of Philly but not as generous northeast.SN_012-120_0000.gif SN_000-120_0000.gif Thanks for the maps Ray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 On 3/25/2014 at 9:36 AM, SP said: Good morning it is 18F in my backyard in Allaire and 13F at the pocono cabin. While today is March 25th it could just as well be January X. Hope this one can over perform in some way. Would be a nice way to wrap the winter. I agree, well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 cape may jackpot on 6z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 So here it is, the American numerical modeling, 24 hours out. vs What to do as a forecaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 On 3/25/2014 at 12:52 PM, Capt. Adam said: So here it is, the American numerical modeling, 24 hours out. GFS.gif vs NAM.gif What to do as a forecaster? Like Paulie said in Rocky IV "pick the one in the middle" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 SREF plumes generally ticked up at 09z ttn - 1.5 phl - 2.2 ilg - 2.6 acy - 3.4 dov - 3.8 wwd - 4.3 ged - 5.3 sby - 6.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 12Z NAM precip shield stays about the same with just a bit less in frozen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 On 3/25/2014 at 2:15 PM, Capt. Adam said: 12Z NAM precip shield stays about the same with just a bit less in frozen... Placement is same but cut back on totals. Closer to other models now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 On 3/25/2014 at 2:15 PM, Capt. Adam said: 12Z NAM precip shield stays about the same with just a bit less in frozen... NAM.gif Congrats Delmarva & Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Cape May is the new snow capital of NJ, for March....lol. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 On 3/25/2014 at 2:42 PM, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Cape May is the new snow capital of NJ, for March....lol. Amazing. Woo-hoo! Lol. Don't worry next year we will go back to "Snow changing to all rain. Little or no accumulation." BTW a nice write up on Heavy Snow Discussion mentions 4-6" for southern NJ at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Wow....I went to bed expecting 1-3 and im waking up to a forecast of 3+? Daym. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 On 3/25/2014 at 2:42 PM, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Cape May is the new snow capital of NJ, for March....lol. Amazing. http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX For the record, in both 2011 and 2012 it was about 70 degrees on this date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 SREFs trended drier along with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 18Z NAM really dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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