famartin Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Over the last few days, the GFS and Euro among others have shown a good coastal. Latest deterministic guidance is fairly far south and east with it, but its still *almost* a week out. So might as well talk about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I know people love to bash others for talking about the LR, and yes it is stupid to get caught up in the specifics, however for the most part the models are generally pretty good at nailing the idea of a storm at this range. The last two storms were showing up on the data 9-10 days out. Just because they missed to the south didn't mean there wasn't a storm. This one is a long way out, but the models that do develop a storm show an absolute beast. Look at the QPF output on the 6z GFS in the Atlantic, that is insane! You can bet your ass that if this storm ends up slamming SNE like the 12z EURO from yesterday I will def. give chase, and if anyone wants to join me, let me know we'll split a room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Highzenberg, you mean if it shows a storm up there come Sunday in NE you'll bite because within 24 hours it'll end up at benchmark lol. Anyway here is the 00z euro ensembles. Cold with a digging trough Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Mt Holly NWS discussion put the Kabash on it in Their discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Mt Holly NWS discussion put the Kabash on it in Their discussion Huh? TUE AND TUE NIGHT... THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST AND THEN STRENGTHEN. IT APPEARS (AT THIS POINT) THAT THE LOW WILL NOT STRENGTHEN FAST ENOUGH TO BECOME A BIG COASTAL STORM. IT WILL STILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME PCPN ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER...SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS THAT WERE IN THERE EARLIER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Mt Holly NWS discussion put the Kabash on it in Their discussion I don't know that they've totally tossed it. They acknowledge the threat and stated that at least some precipitation is likely from it so that is something. As you note, at this time, they are not thinking the storm will be MECS or greater, and I think most of us, weenie or not, would agree with that assessment. Still, it is something to track and something with real potential and, really, we can't ask for much more than that for late March. As far as the storm goes, I think the lateness of the season helps as much as it hurts. Yes, obviously, any late March storm in the mid-Atlantic coastal plain WILL come with major temperature concerns and, if this threat does come to something, we will be watching our thermometers from well before the storm is even in radar range and continue doing so right up until the last flake (and/or raindrop) has fallen. On the plus side, the changing of the seasons, replete with plenty of cold air still hanging tough up north and rapidly warming air to the south, increases the likelihood that this storm (if it actually "reaches the playing field") will eventually deepen rapidly if not explosively somewhere along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 12z gfs out to sea, flat. Lot of players still on the field. GEM, Euro, pending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 WOW, 12z Euro has a monster rolling up the coast. It scrapes the area before destroying cape cod/Maine. A little more movement west and the area gets buried. We still get some small accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 19, 2014 Author Share Posted March 19, 2014 Euro is a bomb. Still east but brushes the coast enough to bring decent snows, especially southeast of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 988 low off cape Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 19, 2014 Author Share Posted March 19, 2014 988 low off cape Hatteras 960s southeast of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 960s southeast of Cape Cod. Its a cape to cape hit! Snowcane Still a long way to go but keep those air schedules handy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 closer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 All we need is a neg tilted trough, and we have a storm coming up the coast. Any snow at this point pleases me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 Gotta love the 18Z GFS's Norlun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Gotta love the 18Z GFS's Norlun.... Norlun troughs normally are a NE phenomena, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 Norlun troughs normally are a NE phenomena, right? More commonly than PHL's lattitude, yes. But extremely hard to predict, so its just a fantasy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 More commonly than PHL's lattitude, yes. But extremely hard to predict, so its just a fantasy at this point. Yeah I gathered that from some brief reading I did on that subject. If i'm correct in my understanding accumulations really depend on how stationary the heavy band(s) are? Specifically what factors dictate how much movement happens to the trough over time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 This works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 This works for me. And the 00z doesn't agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 Yeah I gathered that from some brief reading I did on that subject. If i'm correct in my understanding accumulations really depend on how stationary the heavy band(s) are? Specifically what factors dictate how much movement happens to the trough over time? I think it has to do with the path of the vort max aloft as compared to the surface trough. If the vort max moves along the trough axis, it should stay relatively stationary. But I'm no expert on Norluns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 And the 00z doesn't agree. not a bad place to be at this time range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 GGEM is a big hit... much further west. 6-10" along I-95 and 15+ along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 GGEM is a big hit... much further west. 6-10" along I-95 and 15+ along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 GGEM is a big hit... much further west. 6-10" along I-95 and 15+ along the coast. Hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro op still east, brushes the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 This far out, I am pleased we have a storm signal, with a chance, if this is close enough to the coast, to see a major storm. A lot can and WILL change by Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Seems like all of the models are fairly close in their outcomes in the 6 day range. I guess it would suggest that there aren't as many confusing pieces in the evolution of the pattern so maybe it comes down to timing of the shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It would suck to watch a monster low track up the coast to far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 start preparing yourself It would suck to watch a monster low track up the coast to far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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