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Mar 19-20 Snow/sleet/ZR/Rain Event


ORH_wxman

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NAM is like isothermal paste for N ORH county tonight between 03z-06z...gonna be a close one. Could be a quick burst of +SN for a couple hours.

 

 

It actually is a burst of heavy snow too over toward KBED and Ray's hood.

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vzuRym9.png

 

 

 

That would be funny if Ginxy ends up getting 8-10" at Sunday River a couple days after we made fun of the NAM for showing that. :lol:

 

The other guidance has definitely trended more toward the juicey NAM solutions than vice-versa.

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That would be funny if Ginxy ends up getting 8-10" at Sunday River a couple days after we made fun of the NAM for showing that. :lol:

 

The other guidance has definitely trended more toward the juicey NAM solutions than vice-versa.

 

Its true, I still think somewhere in the .5" range is pretty reasonable 

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Here's the RGEM at 03z this evening....it shows very heavy snow just north of the pike. It's a fairly short window, but someone could pick up a quick 2" or so if this pans out...it will have to be intense rate though to overcome the warm air advection going on in the mid-levels

 

I_nw_r1_EST_2014031912_015.png

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Could be good for someone having some cold beer

 

Yeah that would def end the bet right there....on a more important note, the RGEM continues to show a major event for CNE/NNE....I mean, this isn't advisory snow that its showing, this is like solid warning criteria for a pretty large region. And we're within 24 hours now...its like 6 runs in a row for the generally reliable RGEM.

 

I'm starting to think that up around dendrite and over to Maine, some people are going to be surprised

 

 

SN_000_048_0000.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Even your backyard is looking like 6" on that map.

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Yeah that would def end the bet right there....on a more important note, the RGEM continues to show a major event for CNE/NNE....I mean, this isn't advisory snow that its showing, this is like solid warning criteria for a pretty large region. And we're within 24 hours now...its like 6 runs in a row for the generally reliable RGEM.

 

I'm starting to think that up around dendrite and over to Maine, some people are going to be surprised

 

 

SN_000_048_0000.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Even your backyard is looking like 6" on that map.

 

Yes, Its been rock steady, I like the RGEM when we get close in, Its been pretty consistent overall this winter, Steve will be doing powder turns at SR

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You can really get a sense at how powerful the Equinox sun is by noting the ~15F difference in temperatures between where the sun was unabated during the morning hours, back east, compared to where the clouds arrived and effectively capped the chill

 

post-904-0-01192600-1395245199_thumb.jpg

 

Makes me wonder about the possibility of boundary layer troubles for a few areas that don't get that advantage of dummy low-level cold thickness.  But then I checked the DPs and figure this is typical razor thin spring "fake" warmth.  We insert moisture into this column and we'd wet bulb toward freezing real quick.

 

That all aside ... is this a SW flow event ?  I'm looking at sat, rad, and models alike, and they all take everything NW of the region.  Or does SW flow event only pertain to snow?  Or, considering, you can have cold rain nor' easters, but that does not make them structurally different than snowy ones. You must also have to consider SW flow events that are cold rain, in the same vein.  

 

I am somewhat impressed by the NAM's continuity with this. 72 hours ago, ...when this would have been the 84 hours prog, that very temporal edge panel depicted just about precisely what the consensus is indicating, per the latest run cycle.  And, it has persistently shown this depiction in the interim periods. Interesting... 

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Yes, Its been rock steady, I like the RGEM when we get close in, Its been pretty consistent overall this winter, Steve will be doing powder turns at SR

I think riding is pretty much done down our way, although I saw the tucker groomer going through windham last night. I had to do a double take, cause it's just ice on the trails and maybe 2-3" base.

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I think riding is pretty much done down our way, although I saw the tucker groomer going through windham last night. I had to do a double take, cause it's just ice on the trails and maybe 2-3" base.

 

It is done for me, I have to do a rebuild on mine, Bad day last saturday

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I think riding is pretty much done down our way, although I saw the tucker groomer going through windham last night. I had to do a double take, cause it's just ice on the trails and maybe 2-3" base.

Really? I live right next to one of the major routes in Standish and I measured 20-24 inches of base in the woods. One of the most compact, thick bases I have seen for this time of year.

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It is done for me, I have to do a rebuild on mine, Bad day last saturday

I just picked my brides up at JPS. $1400 later she is back on the trail. 41 days out of warranty :(

 

On the upside we are heading to Eustis tomorrow for 3 days!

 

Thanks for your forecasts this winter.

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I just picked my brides up at JPS. $1400 later she is back on the trail. 41 days out of warranty :(

 

On the upside we are heading to Eustis tomorrow for 3 days!

 

Thanks for your forecasts this winter.

 

Ouch, That sucks, I lost the PTO side cylinder, But i had over 8,000 miles so it was due for a rebuild, Thanks man on the forecast part,  I still have my 600 i could ride, Will have to wait and see, But the next couple weekends i have stuff going on so i may be done

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Ouch, That sucks, I lost the PTO side cylinder, But i had over 8,000 miles so it was due for a rebuild, Thanks man on the forecast part,  I still have my 600 i could ride, Will have to wait and see, But the next couple weekends i have stuff going on so i may be done

Yeah, 1800 miles. Mag side crank bearing piston and jug. Dang Doos! I knew I shouldn't have kept it out of warranty.

 

This is the last hoo rah for the family. Maybe a day trip or two in April snow depending but it has been an absolutely fabulous year for us.

 

edit: pic is too big

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Yeah that would def end the bet right there....on a more important note, the RGEM continues to show a major event for CNE/NNE....I mean, this isn't advisory snow that its showing, this is like solid warning criteria for a pretty large region. And we're within 24 hours now...its like 6 runs in a row for the generally reliable RGEM.

 

I'm starting to think that up around dendrite and over to Maine, some people are going to be surprised.

 

I mean we had no headlines 24 hours prior to onset. Ekster and I were debating tossing up a watch last night. Probably should have.

 

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I mean we had no headlines 24 hours prior to onset. Ekster and I were debating tossing up a watch last night. Probably should have.

 

 

 

It'll be an interesting system to watch unfold. It might have some big omega in the SGZ which can do some fun things.

 

On the other hand though its not exactly the most attractive looking system. Kind of this WAA thump into a dry CAD airmass.

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Really? I live right next to one of the major routes in Standish and I measured 20-24 inches of base in the woods. One of the most compact, thick bases I have seen for this time of year.

Is that measured right on the trail? Groomers can pull snow in from the sides, but windam/raymond trails have maybe 3-12" base on the trail, but I can see a lot of dirt in places. Off trail, it's a different story. I was just surprised to see the groomer since there just wasn't much snow to play with.

 

I just picked my brides up at JPS. $1400 later she is back on the trail. 41 days out of warranty :(

 

On the upside we are heading to Eustis tomorrow for 3 days!

 

Thanks for your forecasts this winter.

Would like to get up that way, but unlikely. Caribou, Milli and local rides were all decent to exc this season. No complaints.

 

Ouch, That sucks, I lost the PTO side cylinder, But i had over 8,000 miles so it was due for a rebuild, Thanks man on the forecast part,  I still have my 600 i could ride, Will have to wait and see, But the next couple weekends i have stuff going on so i may be done

Bummer. Which sled?

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It'll be an interesting system to watch unfold. It might have some big omega in the SGZ which can do some fun things.

 

On the other hand though its not exactly the most attractive looking system. Kind of this WAA thump into a dry CAD airmass.

 

Should be some nice SE upslope too. Ginxy with some freshies.

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Is that measured right on the trail? Groomers can pull snow in from the sides, but windam/raymond trails have maybe 3-12" base on the trail, but I can see a lot of dirt in places. Off trail, it's a different story. I was just surprised to see the groomer since there just wasn't much snow to play with.

 

Would like to get up that way, but unlikely. Caribou, Milli and local rides were all decent to exc this season. No complaints.

 

Bummer. Which sled?

 

My 07 gade 800

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I would go on the higher side with these in the mtns of Maine. It just has that look. Big moisture feed, some instability, lift in the SGZ, orographic lift....just has that look.

 

 

Hopefully Steve will give us some obs this evening.

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