Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I don't see why people pay money for the sites, instantweathermaps has all the stuff you need, and is just as fast as I get info before people with paid sites on occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 But man if things managed to work out perfectly just this once (slim but still possible) then we would have a monster event on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It doesn't HAVE to come west, but it certainly isn't going to take a miracle. Not the same set up as the past few storms, while it may still miss, the setup is different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I don't see why people pay money for the sites, instantweathermaps has all the stuff you need, and is just as fast as I get info before people with paid sites on occasion. Agree. For the gfs and nam, instantweathermaps is sometimes faster then SV or Wxbell and other times is on par with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Agree. For the gfs and nam, instantweathermaps is sometimes faster then SV or Wxbell and other times is on par with them. i don't pay sv for the gfs & nam, i pay for the euro & its precip ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 This is really close and I like where we are at, I like seeing euro and GFS consistently showing a big storm, let's keep this trend going of a big storm then Get it to trend west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 i don't pay sv for the gfs & nam, i pay for the euro & its precip ens. The poster was asking about Ncep. Ncep does not carry the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Interesting thought about a capture pull westward scenario, certainly would need it to go negative a lot faster for that to happen. This is the type of setup where you really need the NAO and blocking to make it work, it would certainly give you plenty more room to work with. This all really depends on the PNA and how much the energy digs out west, so it's all or nothing once more with no safety net. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Lol please.... We dont need a "miracle" for this to come further west. This isnt far at all off for the coast/NYC.... and we are 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I wouldnt say 6. But 3 days out.we will probably have a general idea of what to expect 72hrs ;before the event. It has been like that we past storms this month.. Even though we wanted a miracle.. the actual outcome were presented by the models way before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 GGEM has a funky 980's double barrel low with 8"+ NYC 12" + south and coastal NJ and 10+ LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 CMC 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Wow... So close on the 00z GGEM. We're still pretty decently far out. If the ECMWF comes in like this, we may need to actually keep an eye on this one. The H5 is looking really mean with a TON of energy coming into the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 GGEM has a funky 980's double barrel low with 8"+ NYC 12" + south and coastal NJ and 10+ LI. Seriously. .. What are the odds that actually happens? Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Seriously. .. What are the odds that actually happens? Sent from my SCH-I545 This far out call it potential, its a strong signal for MECS / HECS but only a signal. If we see this inside 72 hours then I'll get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I dont see why everyone is so surprised with a ggem run like this .. wouldnt be the least bit shocked to see euro show it even further west... this is usually how the models set up this far out. Watch the gfs to become eastern outlier in a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCsnowfiend Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Odds are good with this storm I think. The phasing is going to happen. Watch! This will turn out into perfect phase where once the phase happens the storm will start going west a little bit before it goes out to sea. At least instead of going northeast it may go north at one point as it's rapidly strengthening. Remember once the phase happens the precipitation field will almost double instantly! At first you'll have light snow but as the storm picks up speed it should develop heavy heavy snow for all areas, especially for the coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The snow lust here is SO INSANE.. Dudes talking about 8-10" I would be SHOCKED to see that here on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 GGEM shows the full phase. 980mb tucked into the coast is a blizzard for the area 10 times out of 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 00z GGEM continues an interesting trend... 500mb cyclone tracking: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 0z GGEM Ensembleshttp://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=144&Day=&RunTime=00&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 0z GGEM Ensembles http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=144&Day=&RunTime=00&Type=pnm Some really crazy solutions in those ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Some really crazy solutions in those ensembles. good to see there's no inside runners from any of the models. of course it could still happen but its looking much more likely to be a big hit or at least a brush or near miss for coastal sections at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Light to moderate snow on the Euro as the low is offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n504jb Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 This is really close and I like where we are at, I like seeing euro and GFS consistently showing a big storm, let's keep this trend going of a big storm then Get it to trend west I did a lot of statistical research and methodology in grad school and here's the thing I like: generally speaking, the last three or four systems that went OTS were touted early as gold. Statistically, every whiff, although a discreet event, increases the odds that sooner or later things will gravitate back towards the mean. It happens every week in the NFL. Al Michaels might say "The Seahawks have gone 27 consecutive games without giving up a special teams touchdown." And what happens next: a guy returns a punt for a touchdown. The fact that posters have been so bullish the past several storms and crashed, I think, is cause for optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 GGEM shows the full phase. 980mb tucked into the coast is a blizzard for the area 10 times out of 10 Yeah but do you want to go all in on the idea of a blizzard 11 times out of 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 "IF" This storm does end up taking a BM track watch out. This thing has the potential to be a true powerhouse blizzard and crippling as well. This is still 6 days out but they're are signs this thing may not be escaping to our east or south this time. Biggest difference here is this time the EURO/GFS and GGEM all like this potential. Feeling cautiously optomistic about this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 This March so far is about missing events so far. We even missed the Regulus star blackout from the asteroid blocking it for 14 seconds. Of course it happens on the one morning with cloud cover in our area. Was supposed to be a one in a million type of astronomical event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Were some of these models initialized with 10/26/12 data ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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