NorthShoreWx Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Can you imagine the full brunt of a 954 into N.S? 3 feet with 60-80 MPH raging blizzard would probably be a reasonable place to start. just wow. will be interesting to see how this develops in next 48 hours. Would be rain for areas along and to the east, not to mention that the winds would be significantly displaced from the center (this would not be a tropical system). For all of NS to get raked, it would have to track just east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Climo suggests a closer to the coast track (3/29/1984, 4/1/1997) IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Wrap it up now, you just know that system at 108 hours is gonna destroy us, been that way all winter, this is the first case in weeks where we see something in that 4-6 day range thats just offshore but COULD be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Wrap it up now, you just know that system at 108 hours is gonna destroy us, been that way all winter, this is the first case in weeks where we see something in that 4-6 day range thats just offshore but COULD be interestingCare to elaborate im on mobile right now at work snowgoose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Care to elaborate im on mobile right now at work snowgoose It fits the mold of the sort of system that has ended up better than modeled all winter for us....may not happen but its been the seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The whole key to getting this far enough west to benefit us is the speed of the trough going negative tilt. In any event, this storm looks like it will be deep enough to pull the whole PV back up north for a nice warmup 4 days later. The 500 mb anomaly progression is about as extreme as it gets this time of year. So it's no surprise the models are going back and forth between very deep solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The whole key to getting this far enough west to benefit us is the speed of the trough going negative tilt. In any event, this storm looks like it will be deep enough to pull the whole PV back up north for a nice warmup 4 days later. The 500 mb anomaly progression is about as extreme as it gets this time of year. So it's no surprise the models are going back and forth between very deep solutions. f180.gif f276.gif If the Euro is correct and if the GGEM is correct post day 7 we go from a potential blizzard to a potentially flooding rainstorm 3 days later. The kind of pattern that drops the snowpack very quickly under warm temps and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 They can handle 75mph winds In winter fine. 100mph winds in summer ala Juan was another story. This bigger deeper storm has me worried for a solution more like last week. Big super deep lows this time of year haven't been kind snow wise the last decade Hurricane Juan basically was their Sandy (worse if anything, some estimates had 140 mph gusts there). People underestimate how much extreme weather happens up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Talk about massive impact, blizzard to major flooding all under a week. As a weenie I would love to see the blizzard materialize even though it's extremely unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Hurricane Juan basically was their Sandy (worse if anything, some estimates had 140 mph gusts there). People underestimate how much extreme weather happens up there. Thats astounding. didnt realize Juan did that much up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 If the Euro is correct and if the GGEM is correct post day 7 we go from a potential blizzard to a potentially flooding rainstorm 3 days later. The kind of pattern that drops the snowpack very quickly under warm temps and heavy rain. Today's Euro run and the way it got there actually gives the 1st reasonable hope we maybe unto something here. we all understand that wasnt very far from a dream scenario for a lot of the east coast starting from DCA all the way to PWM and even BGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 110 knot winds @ 5k feet over the top of Halifax . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The best way to describe the Euro ensemble mean is that it supports the OP very well. Just a bit east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Less spread this run. Heavy concentration on a track from east of OBX to southeast of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 110 knot winds @ 5k feet over the top of Halifax . and that image surely looks like a well developed hurricane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Control run is still way east, ends up hundreds of miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Weenies left and right booking flights to Halifax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Just too fast for me on the west coast . If we can slow it down over the next few days then you can pull the center W . Need a speed bump in the PAC for this to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The day ten ensemble mean has the surface freezing line north of Toronto. Should be a wet and mild period to close out March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Just too fast for me on the west coast . If we can slow it down over the next few days then you can pull the center W . Need a speed bump in the PAC for this to work. I agree, especially with no block slowing this thing down, we're going to need every advantage in the book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Just too fast for me on the west coast . If we can slow it down over the next few days then you can pull the center W . Need a speed bump in the PAC for this to work. Very fast patterns have been the story all winter. I wouldn't count on that changing anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Just saw the ggem ensembles. They look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Very fast patterns have been the story all winter. I wouldn't count on that changing anytime soon. Not saying over the next 48 - 72 hours the models can`t start to slow the PAC down just a bit , but we def need better wave spacing or you will rush the whole thing east . As it is , IMO that look will only get worse as the spread would tighten and it would shift even further east over time . Some patience are required , but some have to realize if that look does not change you are not gona make chicken soup out of chicken .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 with no blocking all winter, and none for this event, I doubt anyone outside of Maine sees anything exciting here...too fast/progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Weatherbell shows 2-3 inches of snow across Northern New Jersey. 3 inches in the city, 3-4 inches on Long Island, 4-6 inches in Central Jersey and 6-8 inches in South Jersey. What else is new? worrying about accumulations already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 with no blocking all winter, and none for this event, I doubt anyone outside of Maine sees anything exciting here...too fast/progressive flow. Yea we only had like 55-60" of snow this winter with little to no blocking so yup it's a definite miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 so this threat is the Tues-Weds than I will get excited if it shows a storm on Monday. We had two big threats Whiff 72 hours before game time in past couple weeks. alot going against his panning out so I will proceed with caution/skepticism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 WPC following the Euro ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Euro individuals are still all over the place, everything from a whiff, to a close miss, to a Boxing Day redux to one solution which is so far west that we actually get close to being dry slotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Prob better that we are not in bullseye honestly. At least expectations are even more tempered than usual considering we are a week out and based on the last few suppressed storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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