Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Yes the GGEM was perfect with the last storm! You're right. It must be ignored for now and forever more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 12z Navgem is way more amplified than the GGEM and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 12z Navgem is way more amplified than the GGEM and GFS Wow, if you go off of the typical bias, this should end up near Buffalo when all is said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Wow, if you go off of the typical bias, this should end up near Buffalo when all is said and done Congrats quebec! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The UKMET is amped up out west, that's about all you can really take from this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Some of the individual 00z ECMWF ensemble members from last night would make Boxing Day look weak. Also a ton of wrapped up close misses mixed in and some with no storm at all. Huge spread. Let's see what the Euro has for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Less spread on the 12z GEFS mean. It bends the mean track back towards New England. Overall looks better than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The NAVGEM basically has tons of over running as the coastal scoots by to the south, we've seen this movie before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The UKMET is amped up out west, that's about all you can really take from this run Hey that's yesterday's 12z run. But today's actually looks even better than that and last night's 00z. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Hey that's yesterday's 12z run. But today's actually looks even better than that and last night's 00z. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=144 Oh, that's not much different looking than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Oh, that's not much different looking than the GFS. If you compare it to the GFS, you'll see that the UKmet is more amplified and has a better chance to stay tucked in as the shortwave dives down through the Midwest. Not saying it's right, but it's not bad having it more on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 This system from a model perspective is so different than the last few that missed us. The others had us getting a big hit and we got nothing. This is just the opposite so it will probably be a big hit. Reversed pyschology LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 This system from a model perspective is so different than the last few that missed us. The others had us getting a big hit and we got nothing. This is just the opposite so it will probably be a big hit. Reversed pyschology LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 12z Canadian ensemble mean looks good, especially for eastern sections, taking a deepening low from about Cape Hatteras to the Benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Early on the 12z Euro is looking good. It's digging the energy a lot more over Texas than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Seeing the Navgem so amped is definitely a red flag, not sure typical progressive rules apply. If things line up then watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The PV is a bit slower and ever so slightly further north this run as compared to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 This should develop a fairly potent system down south, whether or not it's able to make the turn who knows. Heights are really flat over the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The PV is more elongated this run, these slight nuances are going to have large effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Much better looking at hour 144, organized, potent low over the deep south. Heights trying to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Big low near the SC coast, moisture feed from the Lakes to Florida, much better this run. Probably going to be just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Damn, here we go. This thing looks like it will bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The strength of the PNA ridge out west is much stronger, it's helping to elongate the PV which allows the energy to dig more and round the bend faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Damn, here we go. This thing looks like it will bomb Going to get brushed this run, 990's east of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 hr 156 990 kissing obx…mid-atlantic crushed…looks to shoot east from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Damn, here we go. This thing looks like it will bomb It will do so a hair too far east just looking at H5 150 hr. But nice improvement. It'll definitely strengthen rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Hour 162, mega bomb about 150 miles east of Ocean City, MD, whole area in light to moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 970mb southeast of the 40/70 at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 That run of the euro looks identical to the Canadian ensemble mean. Unfortunately it is a big miss for western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 wow hr 162 …975 going outside the bm….coast line gets some good snow…very strong storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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