IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The UKMET has crazy overamped runs from time to time. I wouldn't take it as a huge red flag. The NE forum calls it "Crazy Uncle" I've always known it to have similar biases to the NAVGEM outside of 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 50-75 miles west from the position near our latitude and we are still ripping subsidence. The west shift needs to occur father southwest of us by 100 miles or so, so that the storm tucks in near the SE coast initially. Doing some SST analysis I think the low could end up significantly West as both the Eastern Gulf Stream and Western Gulf Stream boundaries are to the West. Also that area is 2-4 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. However I don't think the SST will be as useful as they were with predicting the storm path earlier this year becasue of such an explosive upper air setup but still needs to be noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 When is the last time the UKMET was this wrapped up northwest of the consensus? Will need to see 3-4 more runs like this before I even consider it noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Doing some SST analysis I think the low could end up significantly West as both the Eastern Gulf Stream and Western Gulf Stream boundaries are to the West. Also that area is 2-4 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. However I don't think the SST will be as useful as they were with predicting the storm path earlier this year becasue of such an explosive upper air setup but still needs to be noted. The problem is that the southern stream seems too fast on this storm. That forces the baroclinic zone east and the storm to track out to sea. The storm can't track west when the trough is hauling it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The problem is that the southern stream seems too fast on this storm. That forces the baroclinic zone east and the storm to track out to sea. The storm can't track west when the trough is hauling it east. Yea exactly, that's why I don't think SST will be as infallible as they were with the Feb storm, but if we can improve some @ H5 I think we can have some extra help from SST in bringing the surface low West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It's not really clear why the models are "stretching" the flow so much -- like they are trying to force progression into the flow. Be that as it may, the +NAO really offers a ton of argument for this to wind up left of the 12z operational blends. Also, for those riding the Euro, it's wheel house time frame for our longitude is < D5 .. not actually ON D5. Would not be surprising to see tomorrow's position be different than these 00z and 12z OTS looks. Many examples of late west correction pummels in the annals folks. Shallow memories polluting threads ... Fool's Day 1997, Boxing Day 2010, January 2005... All these majors really didn't get nailed until < 48 hours out. I think the best folks should do is take the ensemble means, and take note of the direction of the uncertainty/spread. If it shades west, the storm will end up there more than half the time. You get sick of advising this stuff... Easier just to just ignore the opines and whines of the One Flew Over The Cookoo's Nest ward of people that cannot seem to penetrate this logic into their minds. Oh, they seem to acknowledge it, ...only until the next run/cycle, when we find ourselves rinsing and repeating through this same tired mantra about not panicking, and why, all over and over and over and over again. I think truth be told, folks just want a big storm on the charts at all times, and when not, they are like spoiled 5-year olds that can't have their candy. Whah whah whah. Emotion is the absence of objective rationalism, and that is why this repetition has to go on; it's because people tap the weather rod into their emotional brain, and so that is what bleeds out of them most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yea exactly, that's why I don't think SST will be as infallible as they were with the Feb storm, but if we can improve some @ H5 I think we can have some extra help from SST in bringing the surface low West That beautiful gradient and 5C+ anomaly will provide some extra octane to the low at the longitude that it crosses the Gulf Stream. Hurricane force winds look like a good bet out there with a March surfers paradise in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Emotion is the absence of objective rationalism, and that is why this repetition has to go on; it's because people tap the weather rod into their emotional brain, and so that is what bleeds out of them most of the time. +1,000,000,000 Hit the nail on the head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean through 108 hours is a hair southeast of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 That beautiful gradient and 5C+ anomaly will provide some extra octane to the low at the longitude that it crosses the Gulf Stream. Hurricane force winds look like a good bet out there with a March surfers paradise in the cards. anoma.3.20.2014.gif Wait, we may get hurricane force winds here in the city?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 That beautiful gradient and 5C+ anomaly will provide some extra octane to the low at the longitude that it crosses the Gulf Stream. Hurricane force winds look like a good bet out there with a March surfers paradise in the cards. anoma.3.20.2014.gif Yea seriously, Its crazy how the stream is so warm when it has been so cold up and down the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Shifting well southeast this run as compared to 00z through 114 hours and then shifting back towards 00z at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Wait, we may get hurricane force winds here in the city?? no hes saying for ships in the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Wider turn on the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 euro ens mean is pretty ugly..further se then op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Euro ens agree that there will not be any northwest movement initially near the southeast coast. If that occurs you can bet on us receiving almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yea seriously, Its crazy how the stream is so warm when it has been so cold up and down the east coast The Gulf Stream isn't affected by how cold the airmasses here are. The water comes from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Euro ens agree that there will not be any northwest movement initially near the southeast coast. If that occurs you can bet on us receiving almost nothing. Yep, looks like too fast of a southern stream. That has to slow down and phase earlier. An outcome like that would be great for Nova Scotia and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Will need to see 3-4 more runs like this before I even consider it noteworthy. Just to note, the UKMET was very amplified with ECMWF for several runs for Feb 12-13 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I always thought the +NAO would mean more SE ridging thus the storm would end up further to the N&W. Isn't that what we always fear with a +NAO that it becomes to amped up and we rain. I'd rather see the big misses now rather than later. If it is indeed a miss then at least there won't be too much weenie agony if the models already show that this far out and never waver. On the other hand, the opposite could be true and what they show now might be entirely different when it's the day of the storm just like we've already experienced this month. I'd rather not have the models show a hit until it's 48-72 hrs and then they show a big miss, that's the ultimate screwball but it's not as bad at Day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yep, looks like too fast of a southern stream. That has to slow down and phase earlier. An outcome like that would be great for Nova Scotia and that's it. The thing is, there is soooooo much time before we can start making any type of definitive statements. The potential here is through the roof so for now we wait and analyze the set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 not a good model suite beginning from 6z today. Starting to get into the window where we better start seeing significant shifts, or this one is for the fishes. I'm thinking this is a fish storm attm, but won't toss the threat till sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 12z Euro Ens mean is also farther east with the Pacific ULL and flattening of the Western ridge and trough over Newfoundland is weaker than 0z.. Yep, looks like too fast of a southern stream. That has to slow down and phase earlier. An outcome like that would be great for Nova Scotia and that's it. Euro ens agree that there will not be any northwest movement initially near the southeast coast. If that occurs you can bet on us receiving almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 12z Euro Ens mean is also farther west Pacific ULL and flattening of the Western ridge and trough over Newfoundland is weaker than 0z.. These are the little things we have to watch. Over time they can have major implications. During the big ones the models often do this and you're watching them almost as if you're hearing "tick, tick, tick". Eventually the surface responds. But in order for that to happen, the trends need to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The thing is, there is soooooo much time before we can start making any type of definitive statements. The potential here is through the roof so for now we wait and analyze the set up. Absolutely-this still has time to trend better. I'd like our odds a lot more though obviously with the earlier phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 One ensemble member out of 50 has 6"+ for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This event is beginning to go in the same direction as the other March misses HPC has moved the precip field about 50 - 75 miles east - wouldn't be surprised if we only see some snow showers if that when all is said and done http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 One ensemble member out of 50 has 6"+ for NYC. OUCH Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Here we go friends: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43269-march-25-26-potential-bomb-part-ii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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