WintersGrasp Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Keep in mind that this storm didn't really trend away from a huge storm. In fact, it never consistently showed a huge storm directly affecting us anyway. If this is the final solution, we can't say that any models really blew it. It would just mean that they didn't change to what we wanted Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Intensity changed but track not really...That initial southern low screws it all up because it pushes the baroclinic zone out to sea. Annoying as hell how close we are here. To miss a storm like the 12z EURO OTS would be a waste of mother nature's wrath. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This run was not further east than 00z, it took a similar track. That's what I said. Todays was the first 12z run in the last several days to track close to the 0z runs that have been more east than the 12z suites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 That is what we call pitiful meteorology. I'm not here to give forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The thing that bothers me about the ECM run is that the NOGAPS is showing the exact same thing and that brings the question to mind as to when has the NOGAPS become such a stellar model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 A 50-75miles shift the west and we are in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This run was not further east than 00z, it took a similar track. the 12z runs the last few days were west in comparison to the 0z runs. He was just staying that this 12z run did not shift west of the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The old EURO/GGEM runs that had those big hits developed a 2nd dual low closer to the coast as the energy phased in. The last 2 runs kind of showing 1 consolidated low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This run was not further east than 00z, it took a similar track. If you look at the longitude line, it's actually west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Hi res euro shows 956 low se of cape cod 126hrs , imagine that same intensity 100-200 miles west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Intensity changed but track not really...That initial southern low screws it all up because it pushes the baroclinic zone out to sea. Annoying as hell how close we are here. To miss a storm like the 12z EURO OTS would be a waste of mother nature's wrath. Damn. I care more personally that this trough will lift out quickly and warm us up late next week. That it could be heralded in by a MECS would obviously be a huge bonus but I'm resigned either way. I just don't want to get brushed while the main action is out to sea. Another cloudy, flurry filled day would just be annoying after the last two suppressed disasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Hi res euro shows 956 low se of cape cod 126hrs , imagine that same intensity 100-200 miles west? It would still be 10mb higher than Sandy was at landfall, so I say mehhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Straw grasping I know, but if you compare 850mb temps this run to 00z at the same hour, 850mb temps are warmer this run along the coast and colder over the TN valley, both indicative of a more amplified trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What needs to happen is initially the surface low has to tuck in closer to the SC/GA coasts. Whenever we have these hook-type systems that is the only way they work out for us. The track where the system escapes to the east at first will give us absolutely nothing. In order for this to happen we need the ridge axis out west to continue to trend better with a more N-S orientation. This will force the incoming shortwave and jet streak to surge farther south instead of southeast through the MS Valley, similarly to Boxing Day. That storm does not happen if the mid level flow is oriented more NW to SE in the Plains states. Those are the changes we need to look for in the coming days. It's that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What needs to happen is initially the surface low has to tuck in closer to the SC/GA coasts. Whenever we have these hook-type systems that is the only way they work out for us. The track where the system escapes to the east at first will give us absolutely nothing. In order for this to happen we need the ridge axis out west to continue to trend better with a more N-S orientation. This will force the incoming shortwave and jet streak to surge farther south instead of southeast through the MS Valley, similarly to Boxing Day. That storm does not happen if the mid level flow is oriented more NW to SE in the Plains states. Those are the changes we need to look for in the coming days. It's that simple. Agreed-the southern stream is escaping east too quickly. The phase needs to happen sooner and the storm has to have a sharper northward movement component quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Agreed-the southern stream is escaping east too quickly. The phase needs to happen sooner and the storm has to have a sharper northward movement component quicker. You get close to 6" on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Keep in mind that this storm didn't really trend away from a huge storm. In fact, it never consistently showed a huge storm directly affecting us anyway. If this is the final solution, we can't say that any models really blew it. It would just mean that they didn't change to what we wanted Sent from my iPhone Agree. It was really only one euro run showing a big hit so far. Mostly everything is OTS or scrapping the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 You get close to 6" on the euro. I'm talking about an outcome that would hammer everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Getting back to the Canadian as the high res version has finally updated... It still develops intense convection on the eastern side and NW side of the low. This run was nearly identical to 00z up through 111 hours and it still has the extra vorticy on the southeast of the trough unphased. The main differences happen the panel right after, instead of splitting the energy you have one solid low. BTW, the 850mb low on the GGEM is only about 100-150 miles east of ACY. That's a pretty classic spot for us to get a storm in here, just a hair east of ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'm talking about an outcome that would hammer everybody. Your post made it seem like the 12z euro missed. 12z euro is 3"-6" for all of the NYC metro and LI. With a bit more on eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What needs to happen is initially the surface low has to tuck in closer to the SC/GA coasts. Whenever we have these hook-type systems that is the only way they work out for us. The track where the system escapes to the east at first will give us absolutely nothing. In order for this to happen we need the ridge axis out west to continue to trend better with a more N-S orientation. This will force the incoming shortwave and jet streak to surge farther south instead of southeast through the MS Valley, similarly to Boxing Day. That storm does not happen if the mid level flow is oriented more NW to SE in the Plains states. Those are the changes we need to look for in the coming days. It's that simple. The easiest way to save yourself angst with each Euro run is to check in when it's over and read items like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What needs to happen is initially the surface low has to tuck in closer to the SC/GA coasts. Whenever we have these hook-type systems that is the only way they work out for us. The track where the system escapes to the east at first will give us absolutely nothing. In order for this to happen we need the ridge axis out west to continue to trend better with a more N-S orientation. This will force the incoming shortwave and jet streak to surge farther south instead of southeast through the MS Valley, similarly to Boxing Day. That storm does not happen if the mid level flow is oriented more NW to SE in the Plains states. Those are the changes we need to look for in the coming days. It's that simple. I agree the southern stream low running to far east initally. In this setup, we need pay attention to surface low placement as much as at 500mb pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 You get close to 6" on the euro. I get that the data is the data and technically that's all fine and good, but you and I both know we're not getting 3-6" if the pattern evolves as modeled on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I get that the data is the data and technically that's all fine and good, but you and I both know we're not getting 3-6" if the pattern evolves as modeled on the Euro. Agreed, this run only really gives appreciable snow to Suffolk County and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 You do realize even tommorow its 4 days out? Where it is currently a 75 mile shift west and were in a powerful blizzard. The 12Z EURO was very encouraging to say the least my friend With due respect, several Red taggers have explained that it is nowhere that close. Even as per the Euro we would comofortably need a 150-200 mile shift to get into MECS turf and more like 300 miles for a blizzard. Earlier phase, elongated PV, a fuller phase , increased heights on West coast. If all goes well and we get some-most of these then we will be happy campers but 75 miles west= blizzard? sorry but no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 A 50-75miles shift the west and we are in the game. 50-75 miles west from the position near our latitude and we are still ripping subsidence. The west shift needs to occur father southwest of us by 100 miles or so, so that the storm tucks in near the SE coast initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What needs to happen is initially the surface low has to tuck in closer to the SC/GA coasts. Whenever we have these hook-type systems that is the only way they work out for us. The track where the system escapes to the east at first will give us absolutely nothing. In order for this to happen we need the ridge axis out west to continue to trend better with a more N-S orientation. This will force the incoming shortwave and jet streak to surge farther south instead of southeast through the MS Valley, similarly to Boxing Day. That storm does not happen if the mid level flow is oriented more NW to SE in the Plains states. Those are the changes we need to look for in the coming days. It's that simple. I agree. That's why the 12z yesterday was closer to the coast at our latitude. today yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Something to hang your hat on, much improvement with the GGEM ensembles over 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 When is the last time the UKMET was this wrapped up northwest of the consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 When is the last time the UKMET was this wrapped up northwest of the consensus? The UKMET has crazy overamped runs from time to time. I wouldn't take it as a huge red flag. The NE forum calls it "Crazy Uncle" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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