hudsonvalley21 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I meant an exact or approximate solution. Even if every model showed the exact same thing I wouldn't latch on until inside 72 hours at the earliest. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'll be mildly concerned if the ECMWF makes a drastic tick in the wrong direction. I would be shocked if it trended east more so on its ensemble mean and individuals. Once the OP and ensembles start to lock step east than its a biblical weenie suicide in here. Tommorow IMO will be the moments of truth, sampling from most players should be accounted for by 0z. Regardless where this storm goes i am riding the ECMWF like i stole it till this storm hits us or gives us the finger as it goes OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 All mid-latitude cyclones are tilted vertically... toggling between height levels this one seems about standard as progged, at least from what I've studied in the past. Yes I realize that, and when they become vertically stacked they fill and weaken, just thinking that a more stacked system like what the Euro shows makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Ukie shows a 973 west of the benchmark with H5 closed off. Looks right on the 40/70 BM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I mean, you can't really get any better than this for 5 days out on progs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Those of us more seasoned posters and weather enthusiasts know that we go through this sort of thing with nearly every coastal storm. I've seen us recover from far worse. Boxing day recovered from far worse and much closer to the actual event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I mean, you can't really get any better than this for 5 days out on progs..... GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif CMC.gif UK.gif Nice comparison....unfortunately looks like with such a wound-up storm the precipitation shield is tight. Another 100 miles in 3-4 days is not out of the question once new data gets on shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Nice comparison....unfortunately looks like with such a wound-up storm the precipitation shield is tight. Another 100 miles in 3-4 days is not out of the question once new data gets on shore. Right, exactly.....if the Euro decides to go in another direction, then we should probably concerned (I'm talking about a major shift east, south, etc.) Otherwise, if it comes into the same slot as these 3, then we are good...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Those of us more seasoned posters and weather enthusiasts know that we go through this sort of thing with nearly every coastal storm. I've seen us recover from far worse. In fact this makes the ride more exciting, the roller coaster is part of the deal. Slightly darker moments in the process make the payoff that much sweeter. I remember going nuts 96 hours b4 PD II & so here we are again & so we wait patiently for an important Euro run ( not life or death but important) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Although the UKMET isn't that far west of the GGEM at the surface, the UKMET is closed off with 2 contours at H5...precip I'm sure gets further west on the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Bottom line is that it's highly unlikely the storm ends up as shown by the models at 120 hrs. I think a phase is highly probable at this point and we start seeing ticks west over the next few days. Phased systems are the ones that have that famous N&W shift. Still that doesn't mean we end up in the jackpot. It could very well be coastal areas and LI, eastern NE. It's our last threat for at least 8 months so I'll enjoy every moment of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Very slight nuances can make a large difference down the road, like early on in the 12z ECMWF. For example, already heights are slightly higher along the west coast at hour 48 compared to the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Nice comparison....unfortunately looks like with such a wound-up storm the precipitation shield is tight. Another 100 miles in 3-4 days is not out of the question once new data gets on shore. There will be a sharp gradient somewhere but with a closed off 500 and 700mb low, the precip will be able to get a fair amount west of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The ridging is more pronounced this run and the ULL is a tick NW, great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 There will be a sharp gradient somewhere but with a closed off 500 and 700mb low, the precip will be able to get a fair amount west of the low. Would be really nice to get at least the 700mb low right over the coast, that would throw back precip well into PA and with these dynamics precip type issues should be minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Euro is more amplified with the west coast ridge and slower with the E Pac ULL so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The amplitude of the PNA ridge is pushing the ULL further west south of Alaska, that is also helping to pump up the ridge. Nice trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Euro is more amplified with the west coast ridge and slower with the E Pac ULL so far. Yup, lockstep in agreement with your analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The Euro so far is also a hair south with the artic energy rounding the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 However a quick comparison to yesterdays 12z run shows that todays run is not as impressive with said feature and a bit more progressive. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The west coast ridging is more neutrally tilted as compared to the same panel of the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 However a quick comparison to yesterdays 12z run shows that todays run is not as impressive with said feature and a bit more progressive. We'll see. This run looks significantly better with the ridge as compared to 00z and that's a nice trend in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The ridging on the 12z GFS is much less than what the Euro is showing at the same panel, night and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This run looks certain to phase earlier but I don't think it will be that much farther west due to the orientation of the height field to our north and west. The ridge axis and positioning was improved however. Guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 More interaction between northern and southern streams at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 At hour 84 the ridge axis almost takes on a slightly negative tilt up in western Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This is likely going to show a more intense cyclone than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The low is forming about 50 miles further west than 00z. It's a quicker phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The low is forming about 50 miles further west than 00z. It's a quicker phase. exactly where ? please be more specific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Hey if Mercer can beat Duke then why can't this storm come west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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