David-LI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 so this became the storm discussion now? Why two threads for one storm? I would prefer if there was one thread per model run like 00z, 12z runs, and so on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 this from WPC - another reason why its so difficult to get major accumulations here in late March SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF HIGHS 10-25F BELOW NORMAL MON-WED WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE OF SUCH EXTREMES FOR MIN TEMPS. SHRTWVS FEEDING INTO THE AMPLIFYING ERN TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE A BAND OF LGT TO PSBLY MDT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OH VLY INTO CNTRL APLCHNS MON-TUE WITH THE DEVELOPING WRN ATLC STORM EXTENDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLC INTO THE NORTHEAST TUE-WED. E OF THE APLCHNS ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE TIME OF DAY SNOWFALL OCCURS AS WELL AS TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. AREAS NEAR THE E COAST WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR IMPACTS FROM STRONG WINDS PRIMARILY LATE TUE INTO WED NIGHT. If this storm directly hits us it will accumulate in May during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 GGEM won't be as wrapped up as last night, but looks like it may still be a huge hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The WPC discussion is probably based on the "fringe" idea. The light stuff on the fringes will have trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 lol. I disagree. Daytime accumulations, once you hit late March/April, is very difficult. I experienced several episodes while living in Buffalo in which heavy snow was forecasted to accumulated 3,4,5 inches. Snowed heavily, but barely accumulated on grassy surfaces. The sun still gets through the overcast. If this storm directly hits us it will accumulate in May during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 GGEM won't be as wrapped up as last night, but looks like it may still be a huge hit... That's good news, don't want to lose it just yet. Some model waffling is inevitable this far out, but at least it's a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 GGEM is really similiar to the GFS with more precip for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yeah GGEM scrapes us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 That's good news, don't want to lose it just yet. Some model waffling is inevitable this far out, but at least it's a hit. I spoke too soon it wasn't really a hit, sorry, but it is still close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Hmmmmmm.....did I not say it would most likely go east, and I got hate? hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matre25 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 We're obviously still way too far out to call it quits on this one. But that being said, the GFS actually has moved a bit east of where it was in some recent runs. Trend or not, It now just brushes even Nantucket, MA whereas earlier it was a big hit. The euro was also east. The GFS and the euro do match up quite well. The GGEM is of course a monster of a storm. However, I feel like we've been here before.....very, very recently. So if there is any "giving in" of a model, it would have to be all of the models to the GGEM. As I said earlier, I feel like this will be an all or nothing event. There's no doubt that all signs point to the storm itself being a powerhouse, but will we be able to feel those effects? Sent from my iPhone It actually brushes the southern half of CT, the heaviest precip brushes Nantucket, MA. I'm not sure if that was what you meant or not. Also the GGEM has been pretty good this year with the tracks of the storms and not so much intensity, so it will be interesting to see what happens. I agree with most on here that it is simply too far out to say it is a hit or a miss. The storm would impact the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. We have the rest of today, all of Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday to see what the models do and by Sunday we will surely have a better idea. Many forget that this would be a nor'easter, the other storms that we had were moving from west to east and got suppressed south. This is a completely different storm and models will have a completely different grip on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The NavGEM agrees more or less with all the other models, warning sign this solution is going to change significantly, it worked fairly well with the past event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Hmmmmmm.....did I not say it would most likely go east, and I got hate? hmmm The coast is still definitely in the game, but perhaps out by you in Central PA you are out of the game for sure. Sorry man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I will say this, the shortwave that eventually becomes our storm is still NE of Alaska, IMO we are a while away to know whether this will be a hit or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 12z GGEM has 970mb low east of 40/70 BM at 120hrs. It's a scraper for most us. Eastern LI and SE New England get hit with heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Ironic that technical is misspelled in the title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Hmmmmmm.....did I not say it would most likely go east, and I got hate? hmmm Please stop with this nonsense, no trend has been established this is just little model waffling. Can you say something to back up what your saying? For reference the GGEM blew the last storm and is not really consistent at this range. The EURO at 12z will tell a more sensible story with its proven track record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Why will it trend east? You didn't give any explainations. Exactly...You're predicting a model run, so what? We are 4-5 days away & all the models have a huge storm in our vicinity. Obviously by tonight I'd like to see some more close calls on the models, but common brah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The vort in question is currently over the Gulf of Alaska. gfs_namer_000_500_vort_ht.gif One of the vorts in question. The other is near the North Pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 GGEM is really similiar to the GFS with more precip for the coast. Not quite as far west as the UKIE but the same pressure just SE of BM. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I don't care if I get snow, From the beginning, we were most likely out of it, but people seem to think NYC is gonna get smashed, but I said it will trend east. So you're in here telling us it's going east based on nothing but a hunch and it doesn't concern you anyway...hmm I think I understand Anyway all models have a storm. That's the important point. 4 days out this solution is highly unlikely to verify. It could go east it could do west. Too soon to say without all the players on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 lol. I disagree. Daytime accumulations, once you hit late March/April, is very difficult. I experienced several episodes while living in Buffalo in which heavy snow was forecasted to accumulated 3,4,5 inches. Snowed heavily, but barely accumulated on grassy surfaces. The sun still gets through the overcast. Lol true but how often does a 955mb beast hit us? I've seen snow stick during the middle of the day in October on the beaches in 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What happened with the 12z GFS? I didn't see any analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Exactly...You're predicting a model run, so what? We are 4-5 days away & all the models have a huge storm in our vicinity. Obviously by tonight I'd like to see some more close calls on the models, but common brah. I like where we stand right now with a sub 980 low near the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This would have no chance in January with the NAO state and that sort of ridge to the west, but closer to April 1 it stands a much better chance of being able to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What happened with the 12z GFS? I didn't see any analysis? Its noise it was almost identical to 6z GFS run. If you take into accounts its progressive nature it was not a bad run at all being 5 days or less out. LOTS of BS in the tech. Discussion thread thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman007 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Models are showing mostly a coastal scraper. This storm is going to be a monster. Right now a total ots solution hasn't really been depicted on the models. All we are talking about is a difference in 100 miles for a huge storm for us. With 4.5 days left, i think the models have been remarkably consistent with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 A) A 955 mb winter storm never hits this area and won't be hitting this area. B ) Where was the beach? Maine? C) It doesn't matter, this is going to miss east and I congratulate any meteorologist (irrespective of what HM might say) that is willing to make a stand and use objective reasoning to make a claim and call this a miss for the NYC metro (LI is still up for debate). Lol true but how often does a 955mb beast hit us? I've seen snow stick during the middle of the day in October on the beaches in 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What happened with the 12z GFS? I didn't see any analysis? In the tenchnical discussion thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 lol. I disagree. Daytime accumulations, once you hit late March/April, is very difficult. I experienced several episodes while living in Buffalo in which heavy snow was forecasted to accumulated 3,4,5 inches. Snowed heavily, but barely accumulated on grassy surfaces. The sun still gets through the overcast. I've repeated this probably 100 times now, but on April 7, 2003 seven inches of snow accumulated in the afternoon on the beach. Snow can accumulate just fine during the day if it's cold enough and moderate or better. And this storm will have arctic jet involvement and plenty of cold west of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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