Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised at all given the "trends" of the past couple of models for the GGEM to go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised at all given the "trends" of the past couple of models for the GGEM to go east.we understand your idea already. East. No reason to say the same thing over and over with different wording Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 What time does the GGEM run with the new hour change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised at all given the "trends" of the past couple of models for the GGEM to go east. You are discussing miniscule 50-100 mile shifts on a day 5-6 product. Do you not understand how ridiculous that is??? There is no pinpointing a trend until inside of 72 hours. Even inside of 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Usually saying that something "caves" means that it suddenly shifts towards the solution of another model. If the GFS and EC both had similar runs at 0Z, either one already caved, or there's nothing to cave to. If you want a big storm, you will want the EC to cave towards the GGEM. We are obviously far from the final solution here, can it miss east or hammer us? Yup! But some posters must critique they're statements when posting in a thread like this. Btw i totally understand your reasoning and enjoying hearing your input Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 You are discussing miniscule 50-100 mile shifts on a day 5-6 product. Do you not understand how ridiculous that is??? There is no pinpointing a trend until inside of 72 hours. Even inside of 60 hours. 5-6 days out? We are heading towards 3-4 days now....and this is when the models began to slowly loose the past couple of storms. It will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 GFS has not trended east. On the big scale picture its actually tended stronger and west the past 24-36 hours. The Euro moved east at 0Z but that was after a move west at 12Z. The CMC edged west at 0Z. I'm not seeing a model trend there. This isn't to say that a Eastern track isn't possible or even probable at this point given the overall set-up but I don't see how you can use model trends to argue that point right now. (That obviously could change by tonight) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 That's why I put "trend" it isn't a trend yet, but if the future runs also go east. We might be seeing one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 12z run of the Euro coming up will be the first run to have the storm to our latitude at 120 hrs so far. The Euro pretty much is in a class of its own at 120. cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2PNA.png The EURO has obviously earned its reputation in the past as "the King" for good reason. However, I would argue the chart you posted does not support the statement "in a class of its own". First, that is only over a 30 day period. Second, it is only "ahead" by 5%. Finally, when you look at individual data points, more than 2/3 of the time it did not verify "the best". I am not sure how this relates to how <120 Euro runs will verify with this particular system. I am not even saying that I disagree with the statement that "inside 120 the Euro is in a class of its own" in general. I am saying that I don't believe the performance of the past 30 days is the best support for that hypothesis and to thus use it to predict the Euro as the best model to use for this storm would be misleading at best. All that said, given the Euro's historical track record with Miller A's, I think many will be leaning pretty heavily on it in the next 48-72 hours, myself included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 5-6 days out? We are heading towards 3-4 days now....and this is when the models began to slowly loose the past couple of storms. It will be interesting. The system is not at our latitude until hour 120. DAY 5. You are discussing things like we are inside of 48 hours. Calm down. P.S. 12z UKMET is super amped up, which is a great sign for the UKMET at hour 120: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This storm is 108 hours out. That's 4 and change days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The thread title being spelled wrong is ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 To be clear. There have been no east trends. The only trend has been for a very strong storm. The GFS has never showed a major hit, the EURO has showed big hit 12z , east shift 00z for a few days, and GGEM has been all over the place. So I don't see why there is so much panic from the past 10 hours of runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 One thing we can ALL mostly agree on, whether its a coastal hugger, perfect track, or OTS. This will be the most powerful system of the winter most likely, and it will be a sight to watch evolve no matter where it goes in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 5-6 days out? We are heading towards 3-4 days now....and this is when the models began to slowly loose the past couple of storms. It will be interesting. 4.5-5.5 days to be exact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This will be a powerful system, if it were to end up anything like the 0z GGEM showed then the impacts would be tremendous beyond just snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I see no significant trend in the GFS, east, west, etc. Its just been bouncing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I see no significant trend in the GFS, east, west, etc. Its just been bouncing around. Even if the 12z euro goes 50 miles east and misses NYC, it's not a trend. But Hurr_whatever and others will proclaim that it's a trend like we are inside of 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 GFS has not trended east. On the big scale picture its actually tended stronger and west the past 24-36 hours. The Euro moved east at 0Z but that was after a move west at 12Z. The CMC edged west at 0Z. I'm not seeing a model trend there. This isn't to say that a Eastern track isn't possible or even probable at this point given the overall set-up but I don't see how you can use model trends to argue that point right now. (That obviously could change by tonight) We're obviously still way too far out to call it quits on this one. But that being said, the GFS actually has moved a bit east of where it was in some recent runs. Trend or not, It now just brushes even Nantucket, MA whereas earlier it was a big hit. The euro was also east. The GFS and the euro do match up quite well. The GGEM is of course a monster of a storm. However, I feel like we've been here before.....very, very recently. So if there is any "giving in" of a model, it would have to be all of the models to the GGEM. As I said earlier, I feel like this will be an all or nothing event. There's no doubt that all signs point to the storm itself being a powerhouse, but will we be able to feel those effects?Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The whole we've been here before should not apply to past storms, this storm is completely different. We're not talking about suppression this time around. If it misses then so be it but let's not jump to conclusions this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Can we keep the model discussion in one thread please? I dont really understand the differentiation between this one and the other! Having a thread for 0z or 12z runs...is fine if their is an above average chance of a SECS (within a few days) but this is too much I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 12z Ukie is super amped. 975 low just west of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 12z UKMET has the low near Newfoundland at 980mb at 96hrs. While the GFS has it 991mb at 96hrs. More of 50/50 low (although not technically not) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 12z Ukie is super amped. 975 low just west of the benchmark. Significant precip make it in to the area or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 12z Ukie is super amped. 975 low just west of the benchmark. It appears that this run goes neg tilt faster so it ends up further west. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1021&ech=0&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 12z GGEM @ 72 hours looks like it will eventually have less phasing. The lobe associated with the storm isn't diving as far southwest....We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1158 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014VALID 12Z MON MAR 24 2014 - 12Z FRI MAR 28 2014...OVERVIEW AND PREFERENCES...THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BEHIGHLIGHTED BY A CNTRL-ERN CONUS COLD SURGE AND RAPID/DEEP WRNATLC SFC DEVELOPMENT BOTH SUFFICIENTLY EXTREME FOR LATE MARCH TOBE OBSERVED TYPICALLY ONLY ONCE EVERY 10-20 YEARS. MEANWHILE THEEWD PROGRESSION OF AN ERN PAC TROUGH BRINGING A PERIOD OFUNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE WRN-CNTRL STATES WILL ENCOURAGE A RAPIDMODERATION DOWNSTREAM SO THAT BY NEXT FRI AN UNUSUALLY LARGEPORTION OF THE LOWER 48 SHOULD SEE TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/d4500wbg.gif http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f120_usbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Significant precip make it in to the area or no? Im assuming that strength and west of the BM, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 this from WPC - another reason why its so difficult to get major accumulations here in late March SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF HIGHS 10-25FBELOW NORMAL MON-WED WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE OF SUCHEXTREMES FOR MIN TEMPS. SHRTWVS FEEDING INTO THE AMPLIFYING ERNTROUGH ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE A BAND OF LGT TO PSBLY MDT SNOWACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OH VLY INTO CNTRL APLCHNS MON-TUE WITHTHE DEVELOPING WRN ATLC STORM EXTENDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFROM PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLC INTO THE NORTHEAST TUE-WED. E OFTHE APLCHNS ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE TIME OF DAYSNOWFALL OCCURS AS WELL AS TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. AREAS NEAR THE ECOAST WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR IMPACTS FROM STRONG WINDSPRIMARILY LATE TUE INTO WED NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 this from WPC - another reason why its so difficult to get major accumulations here in late March SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF HIGHS 10-25F BELOW NORMAL MON-WED WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE OF SUCH EXTREMES FOR MIN TEMPS. SHRTWVS FEEDING INTO THE AMPLIFYING ERN TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE A BAND OF LGT TO PSBLY MDT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OH VLY INTO CNTRL APLCHNS MON-TUE WITH THE DEVELOPING WRN ATLC STORM EXTENDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLC INTO THE NORTHEAST TUE-WED. E OF THE APLCHNS ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE TIME OF DAY SNOWFALL OCCURS AS WELL AS TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. AREAS NEAR THE E COAST WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR IMPACTS FROM STRONG WINDS PRIMARILY LATE TUE INTO WED NIGHT. If it snows heavily enough here it will stick. Period. 850mb temps are also supposed to be in the -10C to -12C range, so ground temps may be in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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