IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The changes from 06z look to be small rather than drastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The low so far is a hair southeast of where it was at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Good improvement at H5. Trough axis goes negative faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Im so confuse. The pbp is now on this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Looks like it will start coming back towards the coast at 114 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Nothing spectacular this run. Tad east of 6z gfs, at least comparing precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 GFS has a beast east of the benchmark. Light snow in our area. We need the trough to go negative faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Another bad run from the GFS. Maybe euro will cave later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Another bad run from the GFS. Maybe euro will cave later today It's way too early to say this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Looks like it will start coming back towards the coast at 114 hours We have strong high pressure SE of Newfoundland. This will be forced northward eventually. The question is where does turn north from. At 0W or 65W? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It's way too early to say this.[/quote Not really. We are only 3 days away from the storm. Consensus should start to build by today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Another bad run from the GFS. Maybe euro will cave later today This post is utterly useless in this thread. The EURO has the GFS by a long shot with miller A storms, this is the typical GFS playing too progressive. The EURO OP/Ensembles and control are the way to go with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 We have strong high pressure SE of Newfoundland, this be forced northward eventually. The question is where does turn north from. At 70W or 65W? That's the biggest question in the upcoming days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It's way too early to say this.[/quote Not really. We are only 3 days away from the storm. Consensus should start to build by today. 4 days away and didn't we learn from the other events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This post is utterly useless in this thread. The EURO has the GFS by a long shot with miller A storms, this is the typical GFS playing too progressive. The EURO OP/Ensembles and control are the way to go with this storm You realize that the 0Z GFS and EC were almost identical, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman007 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 How would the euro cave to the gfs when they are both in a very similar spot. If anything, all the models are handling this storm practically the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This post is utterly useless in this thread. The EURO has the GFS by a long shot with miller A storms, this is the typical GFS playing too progressive. The EURO OP/Ensembles and control are the way to go with this storm The pattern itself is too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Another bad run from the GFS. Maybe euro will cave later today seriously... a lot of your posts are really annoying and pure clutter. it's important not to post every random whim that comes to mind. yesterday in response to a post saying, "EURO isn't good at all. Looks more suppressed at hour 120." you responded "that's not good." posts like that just clutter up a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It's hard to argue with the consistency of the models in the path of the storm (yeah some swings 50-150 miles E/W) but not one model run of any model (outside of 1 or 2 GGEM) had this at the B/M or west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Told you most likely models will begin to shift east after showing the big solutions. I expect future guidance to continue the shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Told you most likely models will begin to shift east after showing the big solutions. I expect future guidance to continue the shift east. Reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 12z run of the Euro coming up will be the first run to have the storm to our latitude at 120 hrs so far. The Euro pretty much is in a class of its own at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The vort in question is currently over the Gulf of Alaska. gfs_namer_000_500_vort_ht.gif We will knw at 12z tomrrw . All the models prog this a large deep SLP. U just need a step west not a giant leap. People are analyzing run after run with incomplete data absorbed . Once the land base obs get a hold of this it changes. No one has patience. They think it's Gona b a wire wire blizzard. Hit or miss I agree with you're call yesterday it's late march and it's either snow or no . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Told you most likely models will begin to shift east after showing the big solutions. I expect future guidance to continue the shift east. We appreciate your accurate prognostication, as well as your future predictions. Mostly, we're thankful for the analysis you provided to support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Well, we need this thing to phase a bit earlier, and with the progressive pattern that we are in right now, it will most likely phase late and miss our neck of the woods. We truly need a block to slow things down a bit. But, it's my opinion, and I respect everyone's on here also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 You realize that the 0Z GFS and EC were almost identical, right? Yes sir i do, but to say we'll see if the EURO caves today is WAY too premature and irresponsible. This pattern has alot of volatility and his post added no constructive analysis to this thread pertaining to the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 If the models had been right this far out I would've seen over 20" of snow this month. People have no idea what they're talking about. It will become more clear over the weekend, probably by Sunday. It won't take much for this to be close to the coast and if it fully phases then the track will only shift west as time progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This post is utterly useless in this thread. The EURO has the GFS by a long shot with miller A storms, this is the typical GFS playing too progressive. The EURO OP/Ensembles and control are the way to go with this storm you know this is getting freaken ridicoulus with all of these renagade threads what the hell are we supposed to post in the main storm thread ? Tired of jumping around - mods have to get control of this place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yes sir i do, but to say we'll see if the EURO caves today is WAY too premature and irresponsible. This pattern has alot of volatility and his post added no constructive analysis to this thread pertaining to the storm Usually saying that something "caves" means that it suddenly shifts towards the solution of another model. If the GFS and EC both had similar runs at 0Z, either one already caved, or there's nothing to cave to. If you want a big storm, you will want the EC to cave towards the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman007 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Right now we're talking about small shifts east and west. There hasn't been a any sort of trend yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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