Dan76 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 It...... doesn't..... snow in the ocean.... Yeah.....like a tree falling in the forest thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 0z GGEM Ensembles http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=168&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Look at the precip panels at 186-192 for fun, that is insane...3 feet for the ocean. wow model analysis at 8 days - always accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean wasn't bad, only a tick east of 12z. The control run on the other hand was way east and weak. 12 hits at KLGA > 10" and 20 members 6" or greater. Consistency hasnt been too bad as far as this threat goes with the ECMWF as a whole. Chances steadily increasing for a sizable storm on EC whether or not its close to the coast or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The overnight models trended more progressive with the upper level low in the eastern pac. This leads to a less amplified and more progressive pattern on the west coast, and results in less room for amplification of any incoming shortwave on the east coast. We will see if this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The overnight models trended more progressive with the upper level low in the eastern pac. This leads to a less amplified and more progressive pattern on the west coast, and results in less room for amplification of any incoming shortwave on the east coast. We will see if this continues. IMO if there is really no mechanism to slow the flow down this may once again be another southern screamer and bypass us. Its incredible that deep into and pretty much of march we still are concerned about suppression in a month where typically its then opposite with cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The overnight models trended more progressive with the upper level low in the eastern pac. This leads to a less amplified and more progressive pattern on the west coast, and results in less room for amplification of any incoming shortwave on the east coast. We will see if this continues. FWIW WPC was favoring a less progressive pattern and more amplified solution in its overnight discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The overnight models trended more progressive with the upper level low in the eastern pac. This leads to a less amplified and more progressive pattern on the west coast, and results in less room for amplification of any incoming shortwave on the east coast. We will see if this continues. This is largely what I expected at this point, judging by the PNA. It is forecasted to fall even further over the next several days. My expectation is we see this progressiveness trend continue up until a few days before the storm when the PNA begins to spike back towards neutral. My feeling is we could see this going from an ots solution to a coastal hit just a mere 3 days before it's on our door step. With that being said I still favor southern and eastern sections of the forum i.e. southern half of New Jersey NYC, LI, and coastal connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I would say it's going to be OTS but we've seen models show hits this far out only for it to be nothing so anything is possible at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 As you can see here looking at the 06z GEFS, still a lot of spread in terms of track, although the obvious cluster is east. If you compare to yesterday's 12z run you can see that the GEFS have actually increased spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I'm 50 years old and a weenie, It is possible. I'm banned from OT, only thing keeping me from being voted WOTY. Gut feeling, starting at 72 hours and 60 pages, it becomes obvious that this either cuts the Apps or goes 500 miles East of the Benchmark, and people will be posting the Korean and Australian in desparation. BTW, a Cat 5 hurricane could hit Florida, and I'm not sure I'd see it with the display resolution of the Australian. I'll take minor consolation if DCA gets 4 plus inches from this. Waiting for the NYPD to post the DGEX soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I'm 50 years old and a weenie, It is possible. I'm banned from OT, only thing keeping me from being voted WOTY. Gut feeling, starting at 72 hours and 60 pages, it becomes obvious that this either cuts the Apps or goes 500 miles East of the Benchmark, and people will be posting the Korean and Australian in desparation. BTW, a Cat 5 hurricane could hit Florida, and I'm not sure I'd see it with the display resolution of the Australian. I'll take minor consolation if DCA gets 4 plus inches from this. Waiting for the NYPD to post the DGEX soon. You're banned from OT? Never knew that. DGEX is OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 You're banned from OT? Never knew that. DGEX is OTS Than a storm could actually happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I think at this point we have to expect this to be another suppressed storm and OTS because of the repeating pattern with the positive tilt trough until proven otherwise - pbp of these model runs is useless at this point because they will be all over the place the next couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Early on, this run of the GFS is farther west with the ULL in the Eastern Pac and slightly more amplified with the ridge on the west coast as a result. We'll see if this has any impact on the eventual outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I think at this point we have to expect this to be another suppressed storm and OTS because of the repeating pattern with the positive tilt trough until proven otherwise - pbp of these model runs is useless at this point because they will be all over the place the next couple days It's way too early to make expectations. This is still an eternity out there given the chaos we've seen all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Early on, this run of the GFS is farther west with the ULL in the Eastern Pac and slightly more amplified with the ridge on the west coast as a result. We'll see if this has any impact on the eventual outcome. It's looks more like Euro Ensemble mean with the +PNA. The heights are compressed ahead of it though, slow down amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The western ridge actually looks good on the 12z GFS. If this run is OTS it will be more of a product of how the shortwaves interact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 It's looks more like Euro Ensemble mean with the +PNA. The heights are compressed ahead of it though, slow down amplification. Unfortunately it is a mess with the shortwaves moving from Canada into the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Out to sea on this run of the GFS. Heights were too flat in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Believe it or not its sleeting with temps @ 42 near JFK right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The strength of the PV has been decreased, could bode better for us with the storm. Kind of feel better that the solution is OTS at nearly a week out than a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The strength of the PV has been decreased, could bode better for us with the storm. Kind of feel better that the solution is OTS at nearly a week out than a hit. I think the PV wont be a problem or as big a problem as the what the pacific does that will inevitably have effects on the possible storm on the EC. Any kind of trend or change in the pacific ridging meaning better ridging will benefit this system further. Currently it looks like the PNA will be on the rise to neutral next week as well so that is a sliver of hope as well. This system is far from a lay up and IMO a different setup than the past two southern storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Is the NAO really important, wave lengths are different in late March than January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Believe it or not its sleeting with temps @ 42 near JFK right now. Great insight on the March 25-26 storm, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Is the NAO really important, wave lengths are different in late March than January. An -NAO and 50/50 low over Newfoundland would still helpful here, in causing the heights rise out ahead of storm and the northern and southerns to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 It would appear that the 12z GGEM does have some sort of impact on the area, waiting to see better maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 It would appear that the 12z GGEM does have some sort of impact on the area, waiting to see better maps. Yes the GGEM was perfect with the last storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Yes the GGEM was perfect with the last storm! Wrong storm I believe. GGEM is really flat with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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