forkyfork Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 as though any of you understand convective parameterization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Convective feedback might overdo the southern stream feature and vortmax and if it is too fast, it would erroneously form and track the low too far east. I've heard in the past that late in the year, convection in the subtropics associated with mid-lat cyclogenesis can become deeper and more expansive than progged, and pump up heights ahead of the system. Not sure if that has any merit here (?), but there are just so many things to think about that it's probably hard to say more/less convection = further east/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 as though any of you understand convective parametrization Instead of trolling how about explaining it to us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 as though any of you understand convective parametrization Can you high level it for the crew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Thanks for posting his thoughts here. He's one of the best for sure. So if I'm reading #3 correctly, this event would be a triple phaser? I've seen 1 or 2 other posters mention it, but haven't seen too much talk of it. I wouldn't get hung up on the triple phaser point other than as evidence that a very powerful low is likely. "Triple phaser" is kind of like "derecho"... technically they happen quite a bit, but when you only hear about one or two of the most extreme events, the terms become needlessly mystical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 April 1997 should have been a lot more snow for NYC but the mesoscale banding ended up too far west. I think parts of central/southern NJ had a foot of snow from that.I remember nw nj getting crushed. And yes this time of year we are really going to need intense rates to deliver the goods. That's why I think a glancing blow just woulnt do it especially if it comes during day light.As others have said I think we have as good a chance at a major event as nothing at all with a minor event being least likely. It's funny how earlier in the month all the talk was about sun angles and rates and we watched areas way south do just fine. The difference between then and now is we are really getting into the end of our snow season. The events that have produced here on out have really threaded the needle. Even my favorite event 1888 has past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Instead of trolling how about explaining it to us? https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=701#.UyxRz867MlI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Instead of trolling how about explaining it to us? Yanks i really wouldnt take offense to that, it wasnt like it was worded to be an offensive remark. Ive heard of it but even i dont know the true meaning and cause for it. Forky care to explain so some of us have the reasoning to use it the right way instead of an excuse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yanks i really wouldnt take offense to that, it wasnt like it was worded to be an offensive remark. Ive heard of it but even i dont know the true meaning and cause for it. Forky care to explain so some of us have the reasoning to use it the right way instead of an excuse? How was that non offensive? He basically called us all a bunch of idiots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Instead of trolling how about explaining it to us? How about you explain it and how it technically applies to recent model output for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 In this pattern you're really worrying about precip type issues? Even the solutions yesterday that had the low almost on top of NYC showed snow all the way to the coast. yes you should be worried about precip type issues because of what happened March 28 - 29 1984 - go research that storm - uncle w psoted that NYC only got 3 or 4 inches because it was slush - do not want to get too much warmer ocean air wrapped into system would rather have it a little further east for the coastal areas - the inland areas jackpot with those tucked in systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 For all of our reading I guess : http://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snesbitt/ATMS597R/notes/cuparm.ppt Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 When you examine the 06z NAM at hour 84 versus the 12z NAM at hour 78 you can take away two things... 1) The 12z NAM is more progressive with the ULL energy south of Alaska than 06z. This in return is knocking down the western ridge some. 2) The northern stream energy that will eventually phase in is significantly stronger this run. One positive, one negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 How about you explain it and how it technically applies to recent model output for this storm? I'm not the one here pretending to be a met... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 How was that non offensive? He basically called us all a bunch of idiots. yanks trust me ive heard stuff put alot worse than that. Ive got a tough skin for this stuff. Being on teamspeak for online PC games such as battlefield 3 and left for dead makes your hardened to internet trolling and insults. Anyway back on topic, IMO this storm is in a spot where i am happy. The spread isnt too far shore and few are inland runners, you take an average they are just east of the BM. 5 days out i dont know how much more you could ask for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 yes you should be worried about precip type issues because of what happened March 28 - 29 1984 - go research that storm - uncle w psoted that NYC only got 3 or 4 inches because it was slush - do not want to get too much warmer ocean air wrapped into system would rather have it a little further east for the coastal areas - the inland areas jackpot with those tucked in systems Just glancing quickly, this doesn't look like a good analog right now for this storm. The ULL energy was a lot further west for that storm. Not to mention, look a the differences along the west coast. In any event, looks like my backyard did very well with that storm, though I wasn't born yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The other thing to remember is that very strong miller A's without blocking can tick a little west from where models show them at 5 days out. The March 93 storm was originally forecast to track over the BM, but the lack of blocking and stronger Gulf phase let it come further west. So being a little too far east at these ranges isn't necessarily a bad thing if the phase and neg tilt can happen a little faster than the models are currently suggesting. Screen shot 2014-03-21 at 10.55.08 AM.png Read the middle atlantic forum for an explanation as to why March 93' was a completely different animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I remember nw nj getting crushed. And yes this time of year we are really going to need intense rates to deliver the goods. That's why I think a glancing blow just woulnt do it especially if it comes during day light. As others have said I think we have as good a chance at a major event as nothing at all with a minor event being least likely. It's funny how earlier in the month all the talk was about sun angles and rates and we watched areas way south do just fine. The difference between then and now is we are really getting into the end of our snow season. The events that have produced here on out have really threaded the needle. Even my favorite event 1888 has past. If I recall it was an urban heat island storm. Anywhere within 10-15 miles of NYC had rain/ non accumulating snow and 33/34 and just west south and north had snow with increasing accumulations the higher in elevation you went Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Read the middle atlantic forum for an explanation as to why March 93' was a completely different animal. You are missing the point here if you think that this means we are talking about another 93 Gulf bomb. The discussion is about miller A's without great blocking patterns. You will recall that last February was originally forecast to only hammer boston but it came west. That's not to say that this storm will do the same since each event is unique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 So, will the 12z Friday jinx strike again or will we have an un-jinx 12z run today? Here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 So, will the 12z Friday jinx strike again or will we have an un-jinx 12z run today? Here we go. this storm is 2 days later, so it would be a Sunday ginx if we go by the same time frame.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 this storm is 2 days later, so it would be a Sunday ginx if we go by the same time frame....one day later. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 one day later. Lol Tuesday into Wednesday instead of Sunday/Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The vort in question is currently over the Gulf of Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 12z GFS is rolling and early indications are good for some favorable changes IMO. Pacific low and downstream ridge are ever so slightly more amplified through hour 33, and that initial PV lobe is diving in faster. I'm optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I disagree respectfully Julian, I think the bad outweights the good so far on the GFS. The energy associated with our storm looks farther east and weaker. Trough axis is a bit farther east as well. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I think ultimately this crosses or goes just E of the BM and steams NE from there. Don't ask for scientific evidence to back this up just a gut feeling based on what I know, what I've read and the past 3 weeks. I see the chance but I'm not buying in....Yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The ULL south of Alaska is further NW this run and the ridge axis is more amplified so far through hour 90 on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I disagree respectfully Julian, I think the bad outweights the good so far on the GFS. The energy associated with our storm looks farther east and weaker. Trough axis is a bit farther east as well. We'll see. Those early tweaks didn't really carry through as I had hoped. The 500 mb field ends up looking more than a little disheveled as time goes on. Oh well... maybe we will be pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The ULL south of Alaska is further NW this run and the ridge axis is more amplified so far through hour 90 on the 12z GFS. Amplify away, precisely what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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