Zelocita Weather Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The two other 'storms' turned into non-storms around the 2-3 day mark, let's see if this 'non-storm' turns into a storm at around the same time....by late sat night/early Sunday should know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The Ens Mean is NW of the OP, plenty of time folks. Wouldn't be discouraged by the EURO @ all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The Ens Mean is NW of the OP, plenty of time folks. Wouldn't be discouraged by the EURO @ all. How much further NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This is not happening guys. Enjoy your weekend. Well you heard it... Time to close the thread. The move ots by the euro is concerning and makes sense given the pattern. However it's way way way to early for definitive statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 0z ECMWF and ensemble mean, had the Pacific ULL and West Coast Ridge axis further east and a weaker, progressive storm near Newfoundland, to buckle the flow over East coast. This resulted in phasing to occur later. We'lll see if this continues for the next 2 runs. It's also possible this just keep shifting between a glancing blow or major hit. Without any blocking in Atlantic, it's going to be difficult to get this all timed right for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The big late season snow event has been the most elusive over the East with it occurring only twice since 1950. The only two from 3-25 on were 1997 for New England and 1982 for us. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Well you heard it... Time to close the thread. The move ots by the euro is concerning and makes sense given the pattern. However it's way way way to early for definitive statements. Its just very disheartening that people in here know outside of 4 days the models have been subject to notable changes in the outcome and they throw in the flag because of one model suite. That said, i do believe that if this goes OTS it wont surprise me one bit, for this storm to be a bomb from PHL-BOS we need the perfectly timed full phase and in a progressive pattern that we are in the likelyhood is inherently low. This is where a well timed transient block in the davis strait area would help a bunch jetspen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Well you heard it... Time to close the thread. The move ots by the euro is concerning and makes sense given the pattern. However it's way way way to early for definitive statements. A statement like Milford's should get you 5-posted or temp. banned. It adds nothing to the discussion. Pretty sharp move OTS on the Euro Ensembles....still a glancing blow but nothing like the jacked up 12z run from yesterday. If it holds through 0z tonight or worsens, well then there's your solution.... Even if the EURO is still a glancing blow by tonight, we'd still be in the 96-102 range, still plenty of time for drastic changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 A statement like Milford's should get you 5-posted or temp. banned. It adds nothing to the discussion. Even if the EURO is still a glancing blow by tonight, we'd still be in the 96-102 range, still plenty of time for drastic changes. Totally agree here highzenburg, by 12z saturday/00z saturday we should have a pretty good handle on the outcome of the storm, this is when i expect to see the notable changes as pacific energy will be fully sampled. Until then even todays model suites including 00z tonight/early saturday may still not the correct idea, so please try not to base your predictions on this until we reach the 4 day mark. We've seen this movie before lets act like we know remember it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Totally agree here highzenburg, by 12z saturday/00z saturday we should have a pretty good handle on the outcome of the storm, this is when i expect to see the notable changes as pacific energy will be fully sampled. Until then even todays model suites including 00z tonight/early saturday may still not the correct idea, so please try not to base your predictions on this until we reach the 4 day mark. We've seen this movie before lets act like we know remember it now Cut and paste statement from last couple of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The big late season snow event has been the most elusive over the East with it occurring only twice since 1950. The only two from 3-25 on were 1997 for New England and 1982 for us. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis both years were neutral negative like this year...I'm not giving up on snow until the cold shots stop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Cut and paste statement from last couple of events. Paul has the correct idea right now, he has the state of mind of not looking seriously into this until all pieces are fully sampled. Several time this year when pacific energy got full sampling the outcome was almost set in stone with some minor model tweaking from there on out. Until then IMO the models are making they're best efforts to forecast, the 12z/0z EURO favor different outcomes and coming from a model that has the best verification score especially with Miller A storms that should tell one that this is FAR from resolved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The deep-double low solution on the GGEM due to a combination of convective feedback and separation of northern and southern stream energy There could be two lows, if the energy remains unphased. But not that deep close together. The GGEM ensemble mean also has one consolidated low farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Would you really feel comfortable if all the models showed a big hit this far out? I know I wouldn't. Let the data get here before jumping to conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Would you really feel comfortable if all the models showed a big hit this far out? I know I wouldn't. Let the data get here before jumping to conclusions. I know I wouldn't. If all the models showed a HECS last night, its pretty unlikely that would of held up for 5 days. Our best hope right now is a better trough orientation along with a gradual shift to the west from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The Ens Mean is NW of the OP, plenty of time folks. Wouldn't be discouraged by the EURO @ all. Still a good but east of the 12z ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Still a good but east of the 12z ens mean Chris bought up a good point in that with this storm thus far the 12Z EURO has been a good bit west of the 0Z EURO so this really was no surprise today and especially tommorow the spread show start to substantially narrow with more important data sampling. 12z euro is making weenies dreams and 0z euro is breaking weenies hearts right now is all that can be taken from ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 12" to 24" of snow for Long Island? I share your skepticism. At this point in time, maps forecasting accumulations should be largely or even completely ignored. At this time range, the array of possible solutions is very large. The piece or pieces of energy that could--not necessarily will--generate a storm have yet to be fully sampled. Additional players might emerge and those additional players could also impact things down the road. Historic climatology (upper bound of past events, including the broader sample that goes back to the early 19th century) in the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England areas and seasonal climatology for the period in question would both argue strongly for a great deal of caution. The March 28-30, 1942 storm (11.5" in Washington; 22.0" in Baltimore) and the March 31-April 1, 1997 storm (25.4 in Boston and 33.0" in Worcester) probably give a reasonable illustration of where the upper limit for late season snowstorms for this region might lie. However, late season storms of that magnitude are uncommon events and their extreme snowfall is usually confined to a relatively limited area (much smaller than what one sees during some of the classic December-February East Coast cases). In sum, both historic data and seasonal climatology would suggest that a 12"-24" event on Long Island would be a very low (but not zero) probability outcome. Maps illustrating such an outcome, much less some 5-6 days prior to any possible event, only add to the growing debate concerning the dissemination of weather content on social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Unfortunately, this was created before the last European model run. I really don't understand why they would work all this up just before the best model runs. Talk about idiotic. Because they don't change forecasts after every run of a model for a storm which by the way is still 4 - 5 days out its only idiotic when you flip flop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Because they don't change forecasts after every run of a model for a storm which by the way is still 4 - 5 days out its only idiotic when you flip flop Agree 100% these are meteorologists not modelologists like some on here. They're forecast discussion IMO was pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n504jb Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 You don't think it is idiotic to put out a statement that is so official for the entire country that is only produced once a day, one hour before the model with the highest accuracy runs? This is pretty much why we also have the model with the lowest degree of accuracy of any of the major models too, because we are ok with settling for things that don't make sense, just because. The thing that really is a head scratcher is the spanking so many people on this forum have taken the last three events getting all jacked up about an event 24 hours out and then when it pulls a Houdini they dive right back in speculating about another potential Godzilla storm five days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I share your skepticism. At this point in time, maps forecasting accumulations should be largely or even completely ignored. At this time range, the array of possible solutions is very large. The piece or pieces of energy that could--not necessarily will--generate a storm have yet to be fully sampled. Additional players might emerge and those additional players could also impact things down the road. Historic climatology (upper bound of past events, including the broader sample that goes back to the early 19th century) in the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England areas and seasonal climatology for the period in question would both argue strongly for a great deal of caution. The March 28-30, 1942 storm (11.5" in Washington; 22.0" in Baltimore) and the March 31-April 1, 1997 storm (25.4 in Boston and 33.0" in Worcester) probably give a reasonable illustration of where the upper limit for late season snowstorms for this region might lie. However, late season storms of that magnitude are uncommon events and their extreme snowfall is usually confined to a relatively limited area (much smaller than what one sees during some of the classic December-February East Coast cases). In sum, both historic data and seasonal climatology would suggest that a 12"-24" event on Long Island would be a very low (but not zero) probability outcome. Maps illustrating such an outcome, much less some 5-6 days prior to any possible event, only add to the growing debate concerning the dissemination of weather content on social media. Hey Don, not disagreeing with your thoughts which are just that of course. But did you happen to see Dr. Ventrice's post yesterday in the NE thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Hey Don, not disagreeing with your thoughts which are just that of course. But did you happen to see Dr. Ventrice's post yesterday in the NE thread? To summarize what I thought to be a key part of his comments, he doesn't believe there is anything going on upstream in the Pacific that will cause any significant changes in the way this storm is being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Before everyone goes crazy, I just took a look at the individual Euro ensemble members, still quite a few wrapped up solutions and not many members are southeast. The spread is just greater than 00z which equates to a weaker and further east ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Because they don't change forecasts after every run of a model for a storm which by the way is still 4 - 5 days out its only idiotic when you flip flop It is not about changing forecasts for every model run, it is about having all the available information before putting out a daily briefing and forecast that is widely used throughout our country, and having all the latest information from models number 2-5, but not number 1 in terms of accuracy when doing so. If they waited just 1 more hour to put this daily briefing out, having that information would likely lead to a better forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Here's the full post. Hey all- so I've been watching this thing for awhile (check out the tweet from the first post on this thread)- I haven't seen such a strong signal in the ensembles this year for a potential snow storm and had to write about it. Everything about this pattern screams for big potential for a historic storm for the Northeast. The models are going to shift around a little bit but looking at the upstream pattern over the Pacific, there really isn't all that much to go wrong in the models and change things much. There's no West Pac TCs to force an unexpected wave breaking event, and tropical convection is relatively benign at the moment (MJO signal is being driven mainly by circulation). I'm glad someone took the bait with my tweet and I've been skimming through this thread from time to time to see how everyone's feelings change with each new run. Fun stuff! Enjoy the snow Thank god I can work from home during this thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Before everyone goes crazy, I just took a look at the individual Euro ensemble members, still quite a few wrapped up solutions and not many members are southeast. The spread is just greater than 00z which equates to a weaker and further east ensemble mean. Too late already had one person jump ship JC IN CT- NE sub forum has some of the brightest minds in there with red tags. I will say regardless the pacific energy coming completely onshore saturday will undoubtedly have affects on the models with the first run of complete pacific sampling. Yanksfan, with deeper analysis of ensemble members shouldve clarified that there are no real major changes compared to previous EURO run that is a real eye opener Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Hey Don, not disagreeing with your thoughts which are just that of course. But did you happen to see Dr. Ventrice's post yesterday in the NE thread? He spoke about the pattern and potential for a historic storm. He discussed things very well. I also think that there is a lot of potential. My point concerns strictly putting out a map of forecast accumulations at this point in time. The science is not good enough to pinpoint accumulations at this timeframe. There's a lot of uncertainty. Historic data and seasonal climatology argue for caution. The potential seems on the table. But that's the best that can be said right now and Dr. Ventrice discussed things very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Very good long range discussion by Tony Gigi this morning out of the Mt. Holly NWS office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This seems like a really good analog right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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