brooklynwx99 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Nogaps looks like a coastal hugger Raises a red flag for the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 At the risk of being redundant, there appears to have been an SSW event within the past 10 days; indicating the PV will and/or has spilt. With the lack of a block out ahead of the approaching low, would the PV pressdown to the point of shunting the storm to sea? Or conversly will it enhance the potential storm? Comments are greatly appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The gfs is likely clueless if all the models are much further west but it you can't completely rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Nogaps looks like a coastal hugger It isn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It isn't 6z was.. 18z is kind of ugly... too far east and light on the precip that touches land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCsnowfiend Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I wouldn't pay attention to the models especially the 18z gfs runs till about Sunday afternoon or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I wouldn't pay attention to the models especially the 18z gfs runs till about Sunday afternoon or so. Lmao, you haven't spent much time here I'm guessing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I'll ask again, where do people access Euro ensemble individual members and mean? I could never find them on Weatherbell (just the low-res mean with very limited assortment of products) and I'd like to buy another month of some service to get through the last of the winter threats. The links are available right on their home models page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I wouldn't pay attention to the models especially the 18z gfs runs till about Sunday afternoon or so. ? so what should we pay attention too ? practically every post here so far mentions individual models and their runs directly and or indirectly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Guess what I was doing during the 12z run of the Euro...yep, you guessed right. Car wash. Without fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Guess what I was doing during the 12z run of the Euro...yep, you guessed right. Car wash. Without fail. Thank you! We all know that it Always precipitates within 5 days of a car washing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 NAVGEM just looks like a cold front really... everything moves straight east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 At the risk of being redundant, there appears to have been an SSW event within the past 10 days; indicating the PV will and/or has spilt. With the lack of a block out ahead of the approaching low, would the PV pressdown to the point of shunting the storm to sea? Or conversly will it enhance the potential storm? Comments are greatly appreciated. First off.... You can feel the power of our West Coast Ridge Builder -Right thru your monitor- Loop it here: http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=n_pacific-wv-48 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/P_96hr500bw.gif and this is the WPC 500mb Day 5 prog with that idea in mind..... http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/d5500wbg.gif E-T-P is a go, from the data that I trust -ATM- http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f144_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 GEFS leaning west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 First off.... You can feel the power of our West Coast Ridge Builder right thru your monitor Loop it here: http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=n_pacific-wv-48 wcrb.gif http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/P_96hr500bw.gif and this is the WPC 500mb prog with that idea in mind..... d5500wbg.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/d5500wbg.gif E-T-P is a go, from the data that I trust -ATM- That is a sweet look Doorman. I am more or less in agreement with that forecast. That would result in a solid hit for most of the sub forum. Compare the 18z GFS at H500 and you can see the huge implications of a much sharper ridge over the Pacific NW. Now take the 18z GFS and use WPC's 500 mb forecast, and you get a track near the BM. The GFS is undoubtedly too far south and east with this. It has a habit of suppressing downstream ridges too much, with shortwaves near the gulf. Additionally, I think we all expect to see a PAC ridge much sharper than what the 18z GFS is portraying at day 5, something much closer to WPC's forecast--both of these problems will likely plague the GFS for at least another few days. As such I'd be following the Euro much more closely until the GFS catches up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I can't recall one storm where the GFS wasn't SE of other guidance at some point before classic events. The difference between the last event and this one with regards to the GFS is that the GFS wasn't even close to something big before St. Paddy's storm, while today's run have been off shore you can clearly see that it wouldn't take much for the GFS to show a EURO-like solution. I can't believe it is 3/20 and we're talking about maybe the most powerful winter storm of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 The potential is there for a big one, but we really will not know until Sunday. If we do get a full phase it would be historic if it somewhat phases like the ECMWF and GEM we get a nice storm, and it does not phase we get little or nothing 18Z GFS. We need a decently sharp ridge out west to get the phasing. The baroclincity and moisture is there big time, the main question is how much phasing will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I can't recall one storm where the GFS wasn't SE of other guidance at some point before classic events. The difference between the last event and this one with regards to the GFS is that the GFS wasn't even close to something big before St. Paddy's storm, while today's run have been off shore you can clearly see that it wouldn't take much for the GFS to show a EURO-like solution. I can't believe it is 3/20 and we're talking about maybe the most powerful winter storm of the year. Yes. The upper level flow right through the Rockies created model chaos, so it was difficult to deduce which model had it "right". This also further complicated which models were succumbing to their normal biases, and which were having trouble resolving the location/orientation of the long wave trough and the embedded shortwave. This case is more of a classic setup, where it's easier to apply the model biases, and the normal model "strengths" and "weaknesses" at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The potential is there for a big one, but we really will not know until Sunday. If we do get a full phase it would be historic if it somewhat phases like the ECMWF and GEM we get a nice storm, and it does not phase we get little or nothing 18Z GFS. We need a decently sharp ridge out west to get the phasing. The baroclincity and moisture is there big time, the main question is how much phasing will occur.The GGEM/EURO was nearly a full phase and if that times right, watch out historic would be right. Going to be an interesting weekend for sure! Im encouraged though the EURO is gung-ho for this and its bread and butter is Miller A's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 That is a sweet look Doorman. I am more or less in agreement with that forecast. Outstanding reviews from a red tagger? thank you for that j-ben OPC 96hr E.C. <look in> http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif highlighted for clarity http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2014032012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 964 on the bm on euro control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 964 on the bm on euro control oofah that is a POWERFUL storm. that would crush the entire area taken verbaitm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 964 on the bm on euro control MANY of the individual Euro ensemble members are in the 950's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 MANY of the individual Euro ensemble members are in the 950's good lord that is a beastly number at our latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Are we having the same convo as earlier?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I hope the models are not correct with such a tight western precip shield. Got good MECS potential if everything goss right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Might have some good winds as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Earlier today in one of the sub forums someone posted a NWS discussion that mentioned the Euro and GFS were keying in on different shortwaves. One in Siberia and one in the polar area. This was causing the different outcomes. Has anyone heard any more on this. Edit: Post #360 by Snow88 from Mt. Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCsnowfiend Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 How come I can only post 5 posts a day. My iq is 141 I'm smart enough to contribute! Also I really have a good feeling about this storm especially with the cmc and euro being on board. I'd rather see the euro take lead on a classic miller A storm, than GFS any day. GFS seems to do better with Miller B storms though. Wow if the euro control run verifies, come Tuesday night it will feel like Dec 26 2010! Thundersnow anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 How come I can only post 5 posts a day. My iq is 141 I'm smart enough to contribute! Also I really have a good feeling about this storm especially with the cmc and euro being on board. I'd rather see the euro take lead on a classic miller A storm, than GFS any day. GFS seems to do better with Miller B storms though. Wow if the euro control run verifies, come Tuesday night it will feel like Dec 26 2010! Thundersnow anyone? PM moderator regarding your 5 PPD. The EURO has almost always had the upper hand on Miller A storms and the GFS has been too progressive. The EURO control hasnt been too bad this season and the ensembles sniffing this out and being consistent is FAR more promising than what the GFS shows right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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