JC-CT Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Anyway!!! I don't have any problem with the GFS being where it is ATM. I want it showing a slightly OTS solution at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I agree with you, but I had to laugh. And what fun would that be? oxymoron: a combination of words that have opposite or very different meaningsI'd quote the urban dictionary, but I have a different, more respectable definition of weather weenie. To me, it's someone who gets excited by extreme weather events for the adrenalin rush. Could be a met, nonmet, adult, teenager or child. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Anyway!!! I don't have any problem with the GFS being where it is ATM. I want it showing a slightly OTS solution at this point in time. GFS being OTS is not too concerning atm. Some of its members today on the ensembles did look pretty promising. Whats more the EURO also sees ripe opportunity as well, its a wait and see at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I'm in the GFS bullseye in PHL at 204 hrs so I know this will either be a rain event, dry slotting, or a miss to the south due to suppression. Once your in the bullseye 48+ hours out it hardly ever pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 GFS being OTS is not too concerning atm. Some of its members today on the ensembles did look pretty promising. Whats more the EURO also sees ripe opportunity as well, its a wait and see at this point MUCH rather have the Euro in my camp, any time any day. Doesn't mean it's right, but doesn't change my statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I'd quote the urban dictionary, but I have a different, more respectable definition of weather weenie. To me, it's someone who gets excited by extreme weather events for the adrenalin rush. Could be a met, nonmet, adult, teenager or child. I meant no disrespect! I was referring to the phrase "adult weenies" - it made me laugh, and it is to me somewhat a contradiction of terms. That's what an oxymoron is, a contradiction of terms. Part of being a weather weenie is having the same enthusiasm for and excitement about weather that we had as a child. But as you stated, we can discuss it like adults. Sort of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I meant no disrespect! I was referring to the phrase "adult weenies" - it made me laugh, and it is to me somewhat a contradiction of terms. That's what an oxymoron is, a contradiction of terms. Part of being a weather weenie is having the same enthusiasm for and excitement about weather that we had as a child. But as you stated, we can discuss it like adults. Sort of. Hmmm...interesting, I agree with everything you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 UGH!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Many people consider discussion of the 7-10 day model outputs to be a waste of time, since we (NYC metro) didn't end up getting snowstorms on 3/3, 3/12, or 3/17. My thought is that the long range models were actually pretty damn good in sniffing out threats of major storms, which did come to fruition - just not delivering snow for our relatively small area. There were major to huge snowstorms to our south, twice, and to our north, once. The problem is when people expect 7-10 day models to actually be indicative of what's going to happen, instead of simply being indicative of the major features expected to be on the field 7-10 days hence. The uncertainty is simply too high with chaotic systems, like the weather, to expect more than that in the long range. So have at it and enjoy - might not be doing this again for 7-8 months. That said, man, the models in the 3-4 day range (and even closer) really didn't do so well, at least with the two suppressed systems - different topic, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Anyway!!! I don't have any problem with the GFS being where it is ATM. I want it showing a slightly OTS solution at this point in time. The 18z GFS wasn't even OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 00z GFS looks very similar to the 12z EURO to this point (132 hours)....Lets see if it spins up a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I hate to "forecast" a model run, but my god does this look good so far. My guess is it might spin up a nasty Miller B storm here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Big whoop it's the last possible snow threat for real this time so why not discuss it, 8 months of warmth coming up. I really hope we see some severe this year for once. Please define "Warmth". NJ does not get 8 months of warm weather IMO. Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I hate to "forecast" a model run, but my god does this look good so far. My guess is it might spin up a nasty Miller B storm here... Yep..Looks faster, phase occurring over the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 This whole month reminds me of Dec 2010 where we kept waiting around for a big storm to happen but never did. I remember the frustration on here, which was only worsened when Boxing Day was shown to be OTS. We had all of the ingredients that month and just needed to light the match, and this month is kind of shaping up that way too. All signs from past climo for such an anomalous March point to a big storm and years like 1956, 1960, and 1993 keep showing up on analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 This whole month reminds me of Dec 2010 where we kept waiting around for a big storm to happen but never did. I remember the frustration on here, which was only worsened when Boxing Day was shown to be OTS. We had all of the ingredients that month and just needed to light the match, and this month is kind of shaping up that way too. All signs from past climo for such an anomalous March point to a big storm and years like 1956, 1960, and 1993 keep showing up on analogs. The end result of that month was great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I hate to "forecast" a model run, but my god does this look good so far. My guess is it might spin up a nasty Miller B storm here... andDrum roll please-------- Coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 GFS looks great with the northern stream but the southern stream is a bit flat on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I live on long island.. western long island to be more approximate. I know this won't happen (hopefully i'm wrong), but would it be a rain, or snow scenario? I hear high winds possible too? I don't have access to any models, so just base your answer off either euro or gfs if you can. I know this is useless and won't happen but I'm just curious to see what the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Miller B, OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Miller B, OTS A much better look on this run. Almost similiar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I live on long island.. western long island to be more approximate. I know this won't happen (hopefully i'm wrong), but would it be a rain, or snow scenario? I hear high winds possible too? I don't have access to any models, so just base your answer off either euro or gfs if you can. I know this is useless and won't happen but I'm just curious to see what the models show. A week out you can pick out any scenario. High winds are always a possibility if we get a strong storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 At this range its great the GFS shows a similar H5 solution to the euro, it just developed a bit too late...still bombs the hell out of the storm thoguh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 At this range its great the GFS shows a similar H5 solution to the euro, it just developed a bit too late...still bombs the hell out of the storm thoguh. The signal is impressive no doubt, but I do feel it's going to bomb out or phase just a bit too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 The signal is impressive no doubt, but I do feel it's going to bomb out or phase just a bit too late for us. I do wish we had a block, the progressive flow argues for a late bloomer, however personally I think its way too early to have any clue what might happen. The angle at which that shortwave dives southward is a long way from being figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Look at the precip panels at 186-192 for fun, that is insane...3 feet for the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Many people consider discussion of the 7-10 day model outputs to be a waste of time, since we (NYC metro) didn't end up getting snowstorms on 3/3, 3/12, or 3/17. My thought is that the long range models were actually pretty damn good in sniffing out threats of major storms, which did come to fruition - just not delivering snow for our relatively small area. There were major to huge snowstorms to our south, twice, and to our north, once. The problem is when people expect 7-10 day models to actually be indicative of what's going to happen, instead of simply being indicative of the major features expected to be on the field 7-10 days hence. The uncertainty is simply too high with chaotic systems, like the weather, to expect more than that in the long range. So have at it and enjoy - might not be doing this again for 7-8 months. That said, man, the models in the 3-4 day range (and even closer) really didn't do so well, at least with the two suppressed systems - different topic, though... Well said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Look at the precip panels at 186-192 for fun, that is insane...3 feet for the ocean. It...... doesn't..... snow in the ocean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I'm not a poster to put a lot of weight into but looking at the 0z euro, there is no storm. Nothing really materializes which is interesting given how the 0z GFS shows a very intense storm OTS. Perhaps someone else would like to put some input.Time frame is still far out FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 I'm not a poster to put a lot of weight into but looking at the 0z euro, there is no storm. Nothing really materializes which is interesting given how the 0z GFS shows a very intense storm OTS. Perhaps someone else would like to put some input. Time frame is still far out FWIW. It is there on the ECM its just out to sea and a lot weaker then the 12 Z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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