March 25-26 storm potential

[jm1220]

You're gonna post this and then not post more details? C'mon..

I'd say it has to involve a massive whirlpool stemming from the black hole created by such a powerful low.

[Weathergun]

The 12z Euro Ens Mean comes close to closing off at 500mb. Likely a good amount of members with closed 500mb low.

[WeatherX]

You're gonna post this and then not post more details? C'mon..

Better, IMO

 

 

[PB GFI]

One of the more impressive signals on ensemble guidance for a significant coastal low in recent memory.

I think the Euro ensembles have been great with picking up the last 4 storms , from the 10 inches of snow followed by the inch of rain that nite  to the 3 in row into the MA which IMO missing by 100 - 200 miles over 10 days was still acceptable . 

 

I just hate 6 day means , only because the spread is too wide  . If the mean is " 5 " at day 6 - you are probably in between 2 and 8 , but get inside 3 days and you`re closer to being between 4 and 6 .  I think at 6 days the envelope is too wide .

 

At this range if Albany or DC get a foot , the Ensembles will smell like a rose  since its been on this 8 day out . JMO .

 

* 5 being a BM HIT  .

[earthlight]

I think the Euro ensembles have been great with picking up the last 4 storms , from the 10 inches of snow followed by the inch of rain that nite to the 3 in row into the MA which IMO missing by 100 - 200 miles over 10 days was still acceptable .

I just hate 6 day means , only because the spread is too wide . If the mean is " 5 " at day 6 - you are probably in between 2 and 8 , but get inside 3 days and you`re closer to being between 4 and 6 . I think at 6 days the envelope is too wide .

At this range if Albany or DC get a foot , the Ensembles will smell like a rose since its been on this 8 day out . JMO .

* 5 being a BM HIT .

When you see this deep of a surface low, the spread is on obviously not very wide. You have a ton of members showing a very similar solution with a deep surface low in that area since a mean of 56 members with varying solutions will not show a deep, consolidated surface low.

[bluewave]

One of the more impressive signals on ensemble guidance for a significant coastal low in recent memory.

 

It's is going to be interesting to see how this actually looks in another 2-3 days, but the signal is there for at least

part of the EC to get something special with the right timing of any phase.

[Brian5671]

I think the Euro ensembles have been great with picking up the last 4 storms , from the 10 inches of snow followed by the inch of rain that nite  to the 3 in row into the MA which IMO missing by 100 - 200 miles over 10 days was still acceptable . 

 

I just hate 6 day means , only because the spread is too wide  . If the mean is " 5 " at day 6 - you are probably in between 2 and 8 , but get inside 3 days and you`re closer to being between 4 and 6 .  I think at 6 days the envelope is too wide .

 

At this range if Albany or DC get a foot , the Ensembles will smell like a rose  since its been on this 8 day out . JMO .

 

* 5 being a BM HIT  .

good post and agree

[Weathergun]

Better, IMO

 

eps_slp_c_east_25.png

 

eps_slp_c_ma_25.png

 

I didn't even look it at this. I counted the isobars off the slp anomaly page. On here it says the pressure 962mb though.

 

You're gonna post this and then not post more details? C'mon..

 

Didn't know you that interested in Euro control ;0

[NorthShoreWx]

What quantifies as okay?

 

We had over a foot here.  So you just keep hating on LI. 

[WeatherX]

I didn't even look it at this. I counted the isobars off the slp anomaly page. On here it says the pressure 962mb though.

 

 

Didn't know you that interested in Euro control ;0

I think the way he does it is calculates the lowest pressure reading and as you can see it's normally bolded and above the center...nice features added to the postage stamp section. One thing that is annoying when running the actual ensemble mean and control runs in that section, is the ensemble mean isn't showing the nice 6 hour precip increments close up like the control run...hopefully that gets fixed before this potential monster arrives.

[nyblizz44]

I didn't even look it at this. I counted the isobars off the slp anomaly page. On here it says the pressure 962mb though.

 

 

Didn't know you that interested in Euro control ;0

Lets face it at least 50% of the fun is in the tracking of a possible monster storm  6days out. We all play the same mind games, Im sure many of you are now counting down to 48 hours whe nthe storm can be sampled. This mental process is even more intense with every storm around this time of year because it can be our last chance. But no matter how potentially juicy this one looks I will not be sucked in till the Sunday evening run when the high res models come into play & the storm has been sampled. Climbing the full heights with such a monster can result in a heart breaking fall. Many of us still havent gotten over 2001 yet- I , for one, have NOT.

[jm1220]

It's is going to be interesting to see how this actually looks in another 2-3 days, but the signal is there for at least

part of the EC to get something special with the right timing of any phase.

If everything's timed well it should be a huge storm. Lots of energy rounding the base of the trough, and it being March provides lots of baroclinicity.

[bluewave]

When was the last time the Euro showed a major snowstorm 6-8 days out for a specific

portion of the EC and continued without backing off until the actual storm? The February

blizzard last year quickly just popped up at 120hrs and stayed locked in it right 

until the storm.

[Ed Lizard]

The EPS Control run is just the ECMWF operational with identical initial conditions run at half resolution as a check on whether resolution alone will significantly afffect the solution, right?

 

It is the means and the individual perturbations that are meaningful, no?

[SnoSki14]

Well few March's were this anomalous this late and the ones that were produced a nice storm.

[Juliancolton]

Lets face it at least 50% of the fun is in the tracking of a possible monster storm  6days out.

Meh. Most of the fun is watching your yardstick get buried before your eyes while the occasional check of mobile radar reveals a slightly arched band of deep green and bright yellow pivoting over your house.

[PB GFI]

When you see this deep of a surface low, the spread is on obviously not very wide. You have a ton of members showing a very similar solution with a deep surface low in that area since a mean of 56 members with varying solutions will not show a deep, consolidated surface low.

I will be a buyer once inside 3 and 4 days . I didn`t see the clusters , just the mean . My only issue is the model maybe  solving a partial equation because it may not being the piece moving through N Alaska . That's why I say if NYC gets 12 inches , 3 inches  or goes over to rain , its a great job 8 days out  by the models .

We prob both agree that there`s a gr8 EC signal , Maybe i`m gun shy after the last 3 .

[+SNfreak21]

The Euro and its ensembles do good with coastal storms. (Feb 12-14, 2014, Feb 2013, Dec 2010, Sandy)

[wkd]

Force a phase. Blocking would help. Otherwise we are relying on perfect timing of the s/w's to phase.

 

So why is that "asking for trouble"?

[WE GOT HIM]

When was the last time the Euro showed a major snowstorm 6-8 days out for a specific

portion of the EC and continued without backing off until the actual storm? The February

blizzard last year quickly just popped up at 120hrs and stayed locked in it right

until the storm.

Feb 10 was one of the best 8 days out sub 970 low the entire time

[SnoSki14]

Euro does very well with miller A coastals, even the past Feb storm was nailed down pretty nicely several days out. When the ensembles are close to the euro then that's a good sign but we are playing with fire with little blocking.

[Momza]

I thought the lesson here was not to go ga ga up to 2-3 days before.

 

Looks nice, granted, but aren't we jumping the gun?

 

I want 12-18 inches too with this one, but I'll wait Saturday to get excited, a lot can happen between now and then, at least that is what I have learned from here.

 

The only two Storms that were almost guaranteed 5 days in advance almost without doubt were the blizzard of February 1978 and the Superstorm of 1993.

 

And Yes, NYC has had a blizzard warning in April, that was in 1982 and we even had a winter storm warning on April 19th, 1983 with 2-4 inches accumulating.

Wrong about the Blizzard of 78..If your talking about the one that we got here.

[earthlight]

I will be a buyer once inside 3 and 4 days . I didn`t see the clusters , just the mean . My only issue is the model maybe solving a partial equation because it may not being the piece moving through N Alaska . That's why I say if NYC gets 12 inches , 3 inches or goes over to rain , its a great job 8 days out by the models .

We prob both agree that there`s a gr8 EC signal , Maybe i`m gun shy after the last 3 .

If you saw the individuals, you'd know what I mean. At this range, the amount out of 56 showing a major nor'easter is staggering.

[IsentropicLift]

19 Mega hits on the individuals (widespread 12"+)

[sferic]

Wrong about the Blizzard of 78..If your talking about the one that we got here.

The February Blizzard not the January 1978 13 inch one, the Feb 1978 was called days before. I'm certain of that one.

[WeatherX]

FWIW, there are a number of 960's 15+ and several 950's 6+ and 3 940's on the individual members at 144 hours

[Rjay]

So why is that "asking for trouble"?

Bc it needs really good timing... a late phase is certainly possible with this storm. With that said, after looking at all the Euro products it's hard not to be a little excited

[Yanksfan]

Euro does very well with miller A coastals, even the past Feb storm was nailed down pretty nicely several days out. When the ensembles are close to the euro then that's a good sign but we are playing with fire with little blocking.

 Good point. Couldn't have said it better myself.

[jjvesnow]

19 Mega hits on the individuals (widespread 12"+)

 

Do they favor the coast, or is this area wide?

[nyblizz44]

Wrong about the Blizzard of 78..If your talking about the one that we got here.

No he is right about it : I have read quite extensively about that blizzard , because that was the beginning of my never ending love affair with snow, and it was forcasted well. Problem was the general populous didnt trus tthe forcast , because of a significant earlier bust that winter and the preceding winter and as a result millions were caught with their pants down and chaos ensued on the LIE with cars dumped mid highway in those famous pictures.