tdp146 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I was young, but old enough to remember; and I've lived on LI my entire life. Perhaps because it was such a bust I subconciously blotted it out of my long term memory lol. Most people probably wish they could block this out of memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 what would you best compare this upcoming setup to? 12/19/09 would be a good comparison IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Most people probably wish they could block this out of memory. At least they closed the schools . The announcement was made a day before the storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 At least they close the schools . The announcement waa made a day before the storm lolm March 01 for the tristate area was the meaning of a FAIL. The rug was ripped out from underneath us like that, i dont even think of that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 March 01 for the tristate area was the meaning of a FAIL. The rug was ripped out from underneath us like that, i dont even think of that storm My forecast was for 2-3 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 At least they closed the schools . The announcement was made a day before the storm lol probably the last time that will happen. People have certainly learned lessons from that. The state of CT was shutdown, no trucks on highways etc and the verification for the day was drizzle and 33. (we got the goods that night) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I bet this upcoming period matches one of the 1994 periods as so many of this year's storms have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 My forecast was for 2-3 feet Same here, i remember paul kocin on TWC saying he wouldnt be surprised if people couldnt get out of their houses on LI with snowfall totals of 24-36" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Please, enough with the comparisons, let just talk about this storm and what potential it has, I couldn't care less about analogs and I am tired of pages of banter about it. The atmosphere is so fluid that another storm could be the #1 analog and be "almost" exactly the same and if the high pressure is 1 mb stronger in Alaska, the outcome is different, come on people. Lets talk about what we see, not what we saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Please, enough with the comparisons, let just talk about this storm and what potential it has, I couldn't care less about analogs and I am tired of pages of banter about it. The atmosphere is so fluid that another storm could be the #1 analog and be "almost" exactly the same and if the high pressure is 1 mb stronger in Alaska, the outcome is different, come on people. Lets talk about what we see, not what we saw. Dont know where you've been but analogs and the right ones are very useful when predicting storms. Yes we are reminiscing about a terrible shafting from 01' but we're in between model runs and we can only analyze so much from one run my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Same here, i remember paul kocin on TWC saying he wouldnt be surprised if people couldnt get out of their houses on LI with snowfall totals of 24-36" statements like that were just irresponsible and threw fuel on the fire of hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Dont know where you've been but analogs and the right ones are very useful when predicting storms. Yes we are reminiscing about a terrible shafting from 01' but we're in between model runs and we can only analyze so much from one run my friend I understand but keep it to a reasonable level, page after page is a bit too much. I am a meteorologist so i completely understand the purpose and usefulness of analogs, reminiscing is ok, but should be limited to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I understand but keep it to a reasonable level, page after page is a bit too much. I am a meteorologist so i completely understand the purpose and usefulness of analogs, reminiscing is ok, but should be limited to the banter thread. PM the admins for a red tag so we know you are certified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 statements like that were just irresponsible and threw fuel on the fire of hype. Remember that..The storm that wasn't sure had the highest predicted numbers ever put out as far as I can recollect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ecmwf ensemble mean is a huge hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Hr 138 996 100 miles east of acy huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Just fair warning any solution whether OTS or 968 to the BM should be taken with a grain of salt before any on shore sampling happens. Thst you will get sat . All of what you see be it at the surface or aloft is just a partial equation being solved. Everyone here wants the same thing or you wouldn't be here but at this range there's nothing to really take away from any one run . Buyer beware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The ECMWF ensemble mean is just awful......sub 992mb low that tracks from OBX to near the benchmark, plenty of QPF over the area and plenty cold for snow. Woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 992 over the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Just fair warning any solution whether OTS or 968 to the BM should be taken with a grain of salt before any on shore sampling happens. Thst you will get sat . All of what you see be it at the surface or aloft is just a partial equation being solved. Everyone here wants the same thing or you wouldn't be here but at this range there's nothing to really take away from any one run . Buyer beware. Totally agree. Its exciting to see these solutions but im not going to get into this storm totally until 00z saturday when the bulk of the sampling should be done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 hoping for enough of a phase with no mechanism to force it is asking for trouble I guess I am the only one that doesn't understand this. Much appreciate it if you could clarify the part about "no mechanism to force it". Force what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I guess I am the only one that doesn't understand this. Much appreciate it if you could clarify the part about "no mechanism to force it". Force what? Force a phase. Blocking would help. Otherwise we are relying on perfect timing of the s/w's to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The ECMWF ensemble mean is just awful......sub 992mb low that tracks from OBX to near the benchmark, plenty of QPF over the area and plenty cold for snow. Woof. It's not sub-952mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Too bad this is so far away.. but good to see the Euro showing something good at least. If saturday we still have this type of solutions, ill get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 march 01 is an awful comparison. the nao couldn't be any more different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 One of the more impressive signals on ensemble guidance for a significant coastal low in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It's not sub-952mb? 12z Euro Control has sub-958mb low, near the 40/70 BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 One of the more impressive signals on ensemble guidance for a significant coastal low in recent memory. What would be a couple of the more recent, and how did they verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 12z Euro Control has sub-958mb low, near the 40/70 BM. You're gonna post this and then not post more details? C'mon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 You're gonna post this and then not post more details? C'mon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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