Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 If only it was faster with the last piece of energy rotating around the PV.... We have enough time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The Euro is pretty solid wrt Miller A's. I'd much rather have the euro show something good and GFS be clueless, then the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 hoping for enough of a phase with no mechanism to force it is asking for trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I thought the lesson here was not to go ga ga up to 2-3 days before. Looks nice, granted, but aren't we jumping the gun? I want 12-18 inches too with this one, but I'll wait Saturday to get excited, a lot can happen between now and then, at least that is what I have learned from here. The only two Storms that were almost guaranteed 5 days in advance almost without doubt were the blizzard of February 1978 and the Superstorm of 1993. And Yes, NYC has had a blizzard warning in April, that was in 1982 and we even had a winter storm warning on April 19th, 1983 with 2-4 inches accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Just take the Euro at face value, but no go overboard. I'm glad it's not a huge hit yet at the moment (not that it will end up that way) because there's a lot of time. Will the curse of Friday's 12z runs take this completely away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I can almost guarantee you that the rainstorm it shows at day ten will end up happening, that's just the way things are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Past couple of days the EURO would show a good storm at 12z, only to back off somewhat at 00z. Hope thats not the case tonight. The models today other than the GFS, has been slowing down that kicker out west leading to a closer to the coast solution. After seeing the EURO and Canadian, my confidence is starting to grow on this storm. Like Mr. G would say in this situation: " Will we have some snow or SOME SNOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I thought the lesson here was not to go ga ga up to 2-3 days before. Looks nice, granted, but aren't we jumping the gun? I want 12-18 inches too with this one, but I'll wait Saturday to get excited, a lot can happen between now and then, at least that is what I have learned from here. The only two Storms that were almost guaranteed 5 days in advance almost without doubt were the blizzard of February 1978 and the Superstorm of 1993. And Yes, NYC has had a blizzard warning in April, that was in 1982 and we even had a winter storm warning on April 19th, 1983 with 2-4 inches accumulating. It's way too early to get excited. The Euro is a possibility, that's all. So is a sheared out disaster that ends up for the fishes, or a too late phase that favors only eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 hoping for enough of a phase with no mechanism to force it is asking for trouble I agree but I have said all along that if the models are correct with their E Pac forecast and the ridge develops with some amplitude out west, this has a higher than normal chance of coming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 hoping for enough of a phase with no mechanism to force it is asking for trouble This is sort of like 12/19/09 it's relying heavily on a PV split or phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The Trends of the last 2 model suites on all the major models is clear. More north and more west. I dont think any models are showing a miller B anymore, which is good. I suspect the trends arent over. Not a bad spot to be IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The 1st .13" of the precip on the euro falls in the middle of the day and with temps of 34-36 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Are comparisons to March 01' completely unfounded? BTW thanks for contributing to this forum. We really need more red taggers like you. Thanks. First off, I will be completely honest and tell you I'm not that familiar with this event. I did take a look into it just now and I wouldn't say they're "completely unfounded". I will say there are some notable similarities in the upper level pattern, however, differences do exist in the orientation/amplitude of the upper level long wave trough and ridge. I don't find this very useful as an analog. To me, at the very least one would have to take everything and shift it south and east by quite a bit, particularly at its early stages. Additionally this system seems as though it will have more northern stream, PV interaction than the march 2001 event, leading to a much smoother phase, which will result in a signficantly deeper system. That system was more of a "forced redevelopment" due to a vigorous and broad upper level low, whereas this system will remain the same "entity" if you will, but gradually phase in more energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I agree but I have said all along that if the models are correct with their E Pac forecast and the ridge develops with some amplitude out west, this has a higher than normal chance of coming west. 100% agree, Earthlight. We need to wait a couple more days when better sampling comes into play to see if that E Pac forecast holds. Trying to temper excitement down, but if the timing is right and this vort were to fully phase with the PV and ride the BM, LOOK OUT!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Will the curse of Friday's 12z runs take this completely away? The "curse" would come with the Sun 12z runs since this is a Tues-Wed storm instead of Sun-Mon like the past 2. Saturday should have us all excited at 96 hr only to have the energy come ashore and be sampled overnite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Thanks. First off, I will be completely honest and tell you I'm not that familiar with this event. I did take a look into it just now and I wouldn't say they're "completely unfounded". I will say there are some notable similarities in the upper level pattern, however, differences do exist in the orientation/amplitude of the upper level long wave trough and ridge. I don't find this very useful as an analog. To me, at the very least one would have to take everything and shift it south and east by quite a bit, particularly at its early stages. Additionally this system seems as though it will have more northern stream, PV interaction than the march 2001 event, leading to a much smoother phase, which will result in a signficantly deeper system. That system was more of a "forced redevelopment" due to a vigorous and broad upper level low, whereas this system will remain the same "entity" if you will, but gradually phase in more energy. Are you young or were not living in the area at the time? March 2001 is the bust version of Jan-96 or March-93. Legendary bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Thanks. First off, I will be completely honest and tell you I'm not that familiar with this event. I did take a look into it just now and I wouldn't say they're "completely unfounded". I will say there are some notable similarities in the upper level pattern, however, differences do exist in the orientation/amplitude of the upper level long wave trough and ridge. I don't find this very useful as an analog. To me, at the very least one would have to take everything and shift it south and east by quite a bit, particularly at its early stages. Additionally this system seems as though it will have more northern stream, PV interaction than the march 2001 event, leading to a much smoother phase, which will result in a signficantly deeper system. That system was more of a "forced redevelopment" due to a vigorous and broad upper level low, whereas this system will remain the same "entity" if you will, but gradually phase in more energy. Thanks for your input and analysis, obviously March 01' was not favorable for this sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The "curse" would come with the Sun 12z runs since this is a Tues-Wed storm instead of Sun-Mon like the past 2. Saturday should have us all excited at 96 hr only to have the energy come ashore and be sampled overnite. If it's any consolation DCA would be screwed along with us this time, there has only been a handful of miller As to destroy DC and miss us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Thanks for your input and analysis, obviously March 01' was not favorable for this sub forum. except the far eastern points, Central/eastern LI and 2/3 of CT did ok to well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 except the far eastern points, Central/eastern LI and 2/3 of CT did ok to well. What quantifies as okay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 What quantifies as okay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 What quantifies as okay? I had 10 inches here and it went up the east and dropped sharply to the west.... LI was about the same, 8-12 inches central and 12-18 east. I'd consider that ok to great normally, but given the hype even a foot was a disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Are you young or were not living in the area at the time? March 2001 is the bust version of Jan-96 or March-93. Legendary bust. I was young, but old enough to remember; and I've lived on LI my entire life. Perhaps because it was such a bust I subconciously blotted it out of my long term memory lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I had 10 inches here and it went up the east and dropped sharply to the west.... LI was about the same, 8-12 inches central and 12-18 east. I'd consider that ok to great normally, but given the hype even a foot was a disappointment. I only had 3" out here after a forecast of 24"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 march 01 is an awful comparison. the nao couldn't be any more different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I was young, but old enough to remember; and I've lived on LI my entire life. Perhaps because it was such a bust I subconciously blotted it out of my long term memory lol. I could see that! the mere mention of March 2001 sends shivers down the spine of anyone on this subforum and it was even worse in Philly/DC where less than an inch fell despite 2-3 day predictions of 1-2 feet...models just kept shifting 50-75 miles north and east with each run....made sense given climo and that phases are often late vs early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 march 01 is an awful comparison. the nao couldn't be any more different what would you best compare this upcoming setup to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It is amazing how much cold air is available for the storm next week as modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 march 01 is an awful comparison. the nao couldn't be any more different I'm asking because I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I had 10 inches here and it went up the east and dropped sharply to the west.... LI was about the same, 8-12 inches central and 12-18 east. I'd consider that ok to great normally, but given the hype even a foot was a disappointment. Nassau County had 3-5" from March 2001. The heavy amounts didn't start until about a third of the way through Suffolk County. I was young then but it was still a huge disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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