CIK62 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 0Z EURO OP shows just 2-4" SNOW in NYC bet. 144-156hrs. and looks a little north of earlier runs. Note: Our climatological winter ends March 23 but in the mid-west it ended Mar. 12. The climatological seasons differ by station location. Even if it is colder in the mid-west the coldest quarter (bottom 25% of all 365 days arranged by daily mean, high to low) of the year is shorter than here because of the nearby ocean heat content. Astronomatical and Meteorological (Dec.,Jan.,Feb.) Seasons are the same at all NH stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The 6z DGEX literally has a NW to SE oriented snowstorm, from OH to the Outer Banks. NE of Baltimore is high and dry. Congrats Mid Atlantic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 ECMWF ensembles I might be wrong, the ensembles had this s/e of the benchmark yesterday. Did it trend more n/w on this latest run? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I might be wrong, the ensembles had this s/e of the benchmark yesterday. Did it trend more n/w on this latest run? Thanks The mean ticked NW from yesterday, my post was based on looking at the 50 individual members. The control run also shifted a few hundred miles west last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 0z Euro control run came way west at 0z. 3+ for NYC and 6+ for eastern LI for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 0z Euro control run came way west at 0z. 3+ for NYC and 6+ for eastern LI for next week. Do you have me on ignore? Because you've repeated almost every one of my posts today on this topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Do you have me on ignore? Because you've repeated almost every one of my posts today on this topic. Nope. I didn't see you post the control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The mean ticked NW from yesterday, my post was based on looking at the 50 individual members. The control run also shifted a few hundred miles west last night. Nope. I didn't see you post the control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 This looked better on the prior two runs than it did on this run. The mean has actually been gradually working east, not west. It had Northern NJ down for 5 inches of snow on the prior two runs and 4 inches on this morning's run because it ticked east a hair. More members had bigger hits this run. The spread is just narrowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 More members had bigger hits this run. The spread is just narrowing. Yeah, I am good with that. I just looked again. The differences are minimal. This will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Yeah, I am good with that. I just looked again. The differences are minimal. This will be close. Don't sweat it, this is going to be a close call for our area. Eastern areas are definitely favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I should have corrected to inside 3 days not 4. If the pac can slow a bit and you get just enough retrogragression of the PV then you can pull the trough axis west just enough. The euro ensembles were still east this morning so I didn't like seeing that. You just need a step west not a giant leap maybe today is the day you start to see it. We will see. The true test will be what the models are showing when the energy comes ashore on Saturday. Just maybe the first heavy precip event last night since February 13th might be signaling that the over 1 month long dry pattern is ready to break. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The true test will be what the models are showing when the energy comes ashore on Saturday. Just maybe the first heavy precip event last night since February 13th might be signaling that the over 1 month long dry pattern is ready to break. We will see. 100 perc in this camp . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 100 perc in this camp . What i cant comprehend unless i am missing something is that its not like data is sparce once it gets to the coastline. Im sayin this because recently the models have been changing the forecasts once energy is on shore and in some cases in more than noticable differences. What is causing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 What i cant comprehend unless i am missing something is that its not like data is sparce once it gets to the coastline. Im sayin this because recently the models have been changing the forecasts once energy is on shore and in some cases in more than noticable differences. What is causing this? It could also be that it happens to usually be around 72-84 hours ahead of our storm time. Those times coincide with the closer range for beginning to get some better storm details as the model scores get high enough for more confidence. But sometimes like 4-15-07 models lock in at around 8 days out and hold serve which is rarer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 What i cant comprehend unless i am missing something is that its not like data is sparce once it gets to the coastline. Im sayin this because recently the models have been changing the forecasts once energy is on shore and in some cases in more than noticable differences. What is causing this? There are no weather stations in the middle of the ocean to supply data, so the models have to rely more on satellite derived data when the disturbance is over the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It could just be that it happens to usually be around 72-84 hours ahead of our storm time. Those times coincide with the closer range for beginning to get some better storm details as the model scores get high enough for more confidence. What i meant chris was that some seasons even if the pacific wave was still offshore when it did come onshore it didnt really affect the outcome of the storm on the EC as some of the instances this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 still think the front on Sunday will dive too far south so when the storm forms and the trough is tilted positive to eventually neutral the storm will also be further south and then move east - northeast too far south of us and off the coast - areas to the south that were hit by the last 2 storms will have the snowstorm and we will basically be left out .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The GFS is trending back towards less polar influence and keeps the PV further north and in tact, that's a bad combination for getting this to amplify quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The PV is also pushing it further south tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 We get fringed on this run but still really close to something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Another disappointing GFS run. We need the trough to sharpen a lot more than what is currently being advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The PV is also pushing it further south tho... No, a piece of the PV attempts to break off and phase in, it's the only thing that's giving this an even remote chance of turning the corner hard. We need the PV to completely break off and phase in and faster than what is being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Another disappointing GFS run. We need the trough to sharpen a lot more than what is currently being advertised. Not dissapointing at all with a lot of time to go. Is that a norlun for NYC at 138-141? Anyway, alright run for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 This thing is bombing into the 970's by hour 144, this is a classic example of a phase being too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Not dissapointing at all with a lot of time to go. Is that a norlun for NYC at 138-141? Anyway, alright run for the coast. Good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Good luck with that Good luck with what? People are making it seem that this is the final solution. This run wasn't that far away from a bigger storm for our area. The coast still gets some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Good luck with what? People are making it seem that this is the final solution. This run wasn't that far away from a bigger storm for our area. The coast still gets some snow. This can't turn the corner fast enough if the phase doesn't occur faster and so far I've seen nothing that indicates that it's a good possibility. We have to hope here that the southern stream wave ends up much more amped up than what the GFS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Mt Holly DETAILS ARE FAR FROMBEING ETCHED IN STONE AS THE MODELS DONT EVEN AGREE ON WHICHFEATURE IS GOING TO BE TROF "THE DIGGER". THE ECMWF IS STILLEMPHASIZING A SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER SIBERIA,WHILE THE GFS AND CAN GGEM ARE TYING THEIR HORSES TO THE CLOSEDLOW IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN NORTH OF SIBERIA. REGARDLESS OF WHICH ONEYOU LIKE, BOTH FEATURES ARE GOING TO MAKE A PASS CLOSE TO THENORTH POLE AND THERE ARE NOT MANY RAOB SITES THAT WAY. WE AREPROBABLY GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE 12Z RUN ON SATURDAY TOGET THESE TRIGGERS INTO THE DENSER RAOB SOUNDING NETWORKS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Not dissapointing at all with a lot of time to go. Is that a norlun for NYC at 138-141? Anyway, alright run for the coast. Ant unless your in NE i put almost zero stock in a norlun trough signature. That said im watching the ECMWF control/OP/ensembles before i take what the GFS shows as gospel especially this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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