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Do We have one More in Us?


Damage In Tolland

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BOX (via Facebook): "New fcst data suggest heavy snow farther northwest into Bos-Prov corridor w/potential for 4-7". Need 2 review more data b4 making changes."

The nam should have stunk. Will stick by my very initial impression of it. Everything that went on today to bring this back vanished at init with that run. And that followed with the rgem and gfs. It had a late save because it's the nam and is on crack.

Euro is going to take a tremendous john candy esque belly flop yet again. I don't know why it got so bad this year modeling wise but it's just not worth it. We've had difficult patterns before. Something isn't right because all the models are wildly inaccurate at times even inside of 48 hours. It's like something getting in there is off, way off in the form of observations.

This is a nothing event. Even PB will bust high potentially and he was the lowest. UGH I need a new hobby but thankfully only wasted 12 hours.

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Btw sorry on this one nick....but no Leftie no storm as there's nothing to yank it back. I'm actually shocked it broke that bad tonight. I remember the NGM being this erratic but never a time subjectively when we've seen repeated instances in one season of just nonsense solutions as it turns out by the euro/gfs/Cmc.

Anyway time to get the clubs ready. Won't have to worry about snow on the course this weekend.

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Btw sorry on this one nick....but no Leftie no storm as there's nothing to yank it back. I'm actually shocked it broke that bad tonight. I remember the NGM being this erratic but never a time subjectively when we've seen repeated instances in one season of just nonsense solutions as it turns out by the euro/gfs/Cmc.

Anyway time to get the clubs ready. Won't have to worry about snow on the course this weekend.

 

Eh I wouldn't give up if I were you, GFS is on crack even more than the Euro.

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No I agree, I was saying that earlier this month and got chastised for it. +NAO for the loss.

 

And the Mid Atlantic had an awesome winter with a +NAO, Go figure, Thats where we got pooched by the PV on a few events, I am just hoping for a slow melt off up here so we don't have serious hydro issues

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The polar vortex provides a different sort of blocking. The kind that destroys any hope of snow in NE.

Unless there's a major input error it's over. Blizzard watch to snow shower watch, coating to a few inches on the cape.

I'm still amazed. Sure no blocking as dry slot said but that doesn't excuse what are really large run to run changes when very early in the cycle for all models. I don't know, really makes me wonder about what's going into them or maybe that we've reached a point in some patterns where we are trying to squeeze too much resolution for what's available data wise.

2013-2014 winter by and large was a significant step backwards in model reliability on a lot of levels. Maybe it just was the "pattern" but I'm really having doubts about that. It's just hard to understand that 6 and 12 hour forecasts can be this bad now across multiple models.

Punching out before I waste part of the new day. Have a good summer everyone

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Unless there's a major input error it's over. Blizzard watch to snow shower watch, coating to a few inches on the cape.

I'm still amazed. Sure no blocking as dry slot said but that doesn't excuse what are really large run to run changes when very early in the cycle for all models. I don't know, really makes me wonder about what's going into them or maybe that we've reached a point in some patterns where we are trying to squeeze too much resolution for what's available data wise.

2013-2014 winter by and large was a significant step backwards in model reliability on a lot of levels. Maybe it just was the "pattern" but I'm really having doubts about that. It's just hard to understand that 6 and 12 hour forecasts can be this bad now across multiple models.

Punching out before I waste part of the new day. Have a good summer everyone

Me too, and you too.

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I keep seeing reminders of the early Feb 1992 monster that missed NE for the most part and clobbered Nova Scotia. It has been a pretty challenging winter with the models compared to other winters.It happens.... March has been tough. Snow or no snow from this look to be monster, been a good winter. We are going to have some serious backdoor fronts I would imagine in regards temp gradient with chilly ocean temps deeper into April/May.

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