wxsniss Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 PV here's what I mean: Seen nicely on 12z RGEM, but also on Hi-Res NAM and Euro: 4z Wed: 5z Wed: 6z Wed: You see how East / Rightie eventually dominates and West / Leftie gets sucked into / fujiwara'ed (see on 0z Euro and earlier) out before West / Leftie can have a bigger impact on SNE. The point I was making earlier was that this consolidation of lows happens later on the 12z vs. 0z RGEM (you can see it's a single East / Rightie low by 1Z Wed on the 0z run, but only by 6z Wed on the 12z run. Hence the greater impact on SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Good map. Doesn't capture the structure of some of the models but IMO without an initial decent development off nc in tonight's run we are toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Sweet squall line related to the event over MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Good map. Doesn't capture the structure of some of the models but IMO without an initial decent development off nc in tonight's run we are toast. Credit BOX twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 PV here's what I mean: Seen nicely on 12z RGEM, but also on Hi-Res NAM and Euro: 4z Wed: 12z_RGEM_1.png 5z Wed: 12z_RGEM_2.png 6z Wed: 12z_RGEM_3.png You see how East / Rightie eventually dominates and West / Leftie gets sucked into / fujiwara'ed (see on 0z Euro and earlier) out before West / Leftie can have a bigger impact on SNE. The point I was making earlier was that this consolidation of lows happens later on the 12z vs. 0z RGEM (you can see it's a single East / Rightie low by 1Z Wed on the 0z run, but only by 6z Wed on the 12z run. Hence the greater impact on SNE. JMHO if we see the right low still carrying a significant advantage tonight we may have an issue with eastward displacement. Just a hunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Lowgate. The dynamics are going to go to town where the "right" sfc reflection is. It doesn't really matter much imo though. The mid level lows are going to rapidly deepen and there's going to be a really potent CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 JMHO if we see the right low still carrying a significant advantage tonight we may have an issue with eastward displacement. Just a hunch I think once the low starts moving up the coast, we will know whether it got pulled too far east by convection or not. Not sure we will really know until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 JMHO if we see the right low still carrying a significant advantage tonight we may have an issue with eastward displacement. Just a hunch I think we're saying the same thing lol. We are rooting for West/Leftie. Faster, deeper, anything to keep it more dominant. I agree with you: if we see lessening of East/Rightie and stronger/earlier development of West/Leftie off NC/Delmarva, this will get more interesting... and yes, we're probably in OT for a big shift as far as models go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I guess what I'm driving at is in looking at everything, I don't see how we can get the moisture as far NW as some of these models WITHOUT significant interaction at least for a time from a coastal surface low (and subsequent spin aloft) that's able to attempt to sling the eastern system up towards but east of the BM as it all merges together. Otherwise I see a runaway offshore system robbing a lot of moisture and a development that comes to late for all but ACK and the outer cape in terms of more important snows. Just a random thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 I think we're saying the same thing lol. We are rooting for West/Leftie. Faster, deeper, anything to keep it more dominant. I agree with you: if we see lessening of East/Rightie and stronger/earlier development of West/Leftie off NC/Delmarva, this will get more interesting... and yes, we're probably in OT for a big shift as far as models go. Essentially yes, but I think that component off the NC is critical as without it that would also mean aloft we're not going to have the mechanism to lift moisture as far north and development will take place further seaward. All in context, NAM is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 BTW my initial reaction to the 0z NAM is oh fu*k and not in a good way, but maybe I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Leftie loosey. Righty tighty Anyhoo, this should really be a beautiful storm on radar, wv loop, and on vis sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 BTW my initial reaction to the 0z NAM is oh fu*k and not in a good way, but maybe I'm missing something.Every model that starts has you making startling remarksThen it seems like it does an about face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 BTW my initial reaction to the 0z NAM is oh fu*k and not in a good way, but maybe I'm missing something. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 sharper digging of trough through 18h otoh, not liking the popcorn vorticity way off the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 BTW my initial reaction to the 0z NAM is oh fu*k and not in a good way, but maybe I'm missing something. it's more amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 NAM is elongated and focusing more energy to the east than the 18z early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 it's more amplified I don't like it. I think this one ends up being a total mess, but maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 NAM is elongated and focusing more energy to the east than the 18z early on Yes that's it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Looks like a classic shapiro-keyser storm with the warm seclusion, t-bone frontal look, and elongated center. Back bent warm front! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Every model that starts has you making startling remarks Then it seems like it does an about face Not really fair, I thought every model today looked better and by and large they all were. If this is going to get us (SE MA) there it'll be through a different mechanism than it's 18z run. It's digging more for sure, but that in this scenario doesn't guarantee a better outcome. I may be off on this one, we'll see shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 this is looking alot more like 12z than 18z at h5 thru 24h... a step back perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Deleted that gem myself. It still looks worlds away from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Not really fair, I thought every model today looked better and by and large they all were. If this is going to get us (SE MA) there it'll be through a different mechanism than it's 18z run. It's digging more for sure, but that in this scenario doesn't guarantee a better outcome. I may be off on this one, we'll see shortly. I know. Just bustin. Lots of potential for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 God, what a convulated mess the lows are, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 At 30, looks like it is definitely a little west of 18z.... But double low battle ensuing through that frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 this is looking alot more like 12z than 18z at h5 thru 24h... a step back perhaps Not really though it's another new NAM solution as Scooter always talks about.... Delaware etc gets hit hard this run vs the 12z, I'm just wondering how it will get up into SNE with as much oomph with this setup. We're at 30 hours, it's going to need to go to town aloft beyond 30 to be a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 DC gets in on a few inches per the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 If the coastal low could just hang on a little longer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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