thomasnh Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Will, based on these latest models do we even get a an inch of snow in Amherst, NH? Or are we to far west to even get any snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 RGEM holy moley. 978mb by 36 hours west of 70. It's already in the process of closing off by 36 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The GFS just sharpened the trough for a 5th straight time at 18z. Keeps sharpening the trough, with little to no effect down here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Pick a Met... Well all you BOS folks say Harvey is always right..so we'll ride him and his 1-3 back to the NY border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 RGEM holy moley. 978mb by 36 hours west of 70. It's already in the process of closing off by 36 as well. Hard to tell on 12 hour maps, but it didn't look like it was pulled east of Florida, at least not like the GFS still is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 RGEM is still impressive, maybe just a hair better than the 12z, or about the same. Tough to compare different 12 hour panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aleckrohto Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Seems like to me the model trends for the 18Z NAM + GFS track looks like it is getting a little closer to the NE area. Just my observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Decent trends at 18z, RGEM give or take about the same, nice hit for the Cape and SE areas. 18z NAM obviously better, 18z GFS still having issues and IMO toss. Rest of the guidance kind of blended together is right in the wheel house of Harv and NOAA (although I don't agree on the far western extent some of these mets are showing yet) I don't think we're going to see this hook in the QPF/dynamics/void off Delaware. Owed to all that crap going on so far SE on the GFS that delays everything. May eat these words but I think it's totally out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 RGEM is still impressive, maybe just a hair better than the 12z, or about the same. Tough to compare different 12 hour panels. PV on mobile Can you tell timing of West --> East transfer of the reigns? On 12z RGEM I think it happened at 6Z 3/26, ie ~6 hours later than it happened on 0z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Looks like I may be heading to the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Punching out for awhile, as of now a CMC/Euro compromise makes the most sense to me. As usual at about this range. There's some room for this to bump NW a bit, not a ton. I'd be surprised if we saw much of a SE shift from the current average of say the RGEM/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Looks like I may be heading to the capeYouve posted that 7 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The later and later we can get this transfer / consolidation of reigns from West low --> East low, the better hit we have. The convective exploding crap farther East, real or model-imagined, is what accelerates this transfer. Also suspect h5 vm diving down from PA to Virginia may help prolong the West low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 GFS would be fine if not for the nonsense it develops in association with the convection that fires in the Gulf. That's all real, but the GFS just has a helluva time trying to handle it and it stunts/distorts the development of the low. It's still another run or two away from catching on (usually happens once the convection responsible actually fires and it realizes there isn't a 32 unit spin over the top of it). Better hit for sure. I have seen the convection rob qp moisture flux not buying the GFS 12z wetter QP. Like 4-7 for Cape and Islands ACK ( may get 10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Here's the question, how far west can this really come in the next 24hr period? I am thinking 1-2/2-4 is as good as I can expect from this, congrats to the SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Thoughts on this analysis? http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snow-philly-to-nyc-snowstorm/2430839568001?channel=top_story Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Curious too see if box goes warning here tomorrow, such a tough call. This truly may become a nowcast deal. School implications could come if they go warning I couldn't disagree more on the western fringe if Harveys map. I'll be shocked if measurable snow makes it to the NY border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I have seen the convection rob qp moisture flux not buying the GFS 12z wetter QP. Like 4-7 for Cape and Islands ACK ( may get 10) Definitely and I have seen it many times as well. I think the GFS is bogus this time though. The intensity of what fires tonight over Florida really isn't in doubt - it'll be impressive, but the GFS runs away from that point into running something way way out SE of what makes sense in association with that convection. I really think it's totally bogus. Remove that little issue and it's like all the other guidance give or take. Normally when we have issues with convective processes they iron out once the convection has fired at init. That'll be partially tonight at 0z, mostly by 6z and completely by 12z tomorrow. IMO what rips across florida late tonight is of course real, I think it's influence on what develops is being exaggerated by the convection it creates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 ^^^ as far as SE MA by me and the Cape goes, this map is fine for right now. Pending the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdgraves Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 All this talk of shifting west, but the actual forecasts are dropping the snow here in PWM. Looks like a fun time in Downeast and N Scotia, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 So is the RGEM wetter like theNAM/GFS? Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I dont think that Harvey gives a crap about snow totals outside of our area but I think there's a signal for some early snows more widespread before the system bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 sting jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natedizel Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 MJHUB hey i sent you a message Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 sting jet Storms going to be monstrous. Hopefully it gets close enough to N.S for some good obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I dont think that Harvey gives a crap about snow totals outside of our area but I think there's a signal for some early snows more widespread before the system bombs.thought this all along,I really got excited seeing that closed ULL on the GGEM today,if true that alone snows on us.I like HARVS map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Congrats ACK on 24+ For Southeast New England this still looks like a major snow and would surprise me all the if the island of Nantucket received 24 inches of snow 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I dont think that Harvey gives a crap about snow totals outside of our area but I think there's a signal for some early snows more widespread before the system bombs. Yes, many areas will see their snow before the storm goes to town and everything collapses and the banding consolidates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 water vapor looks solid, RAP (yuck yuck) looks good to, kind of clear the north extension off of the Carolinas is going to be a major player. Will have to see how the individual s/w's dance tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Euro Ens mean QPF looks pretty reaosnable. I'd probably shave down the western part and tighten the gradient. 1.0" QPF to ACK... 0.5" EWB to PYM... 0.1" DXR to ORE. I'd probably go coating-1" most of CT and central/western Mass... 1"-3" GON to PVD to 128 corridor... 3-6" PYM to EWB through the Cape. maybe a small sliver of 6+ east of HYA and for ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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