Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 BTW I think a flag that ncep was having convective process issues was demonstrated by the GEFS. They should be ever more susceptible and overall were horrendous mainly giving very little up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Surprised that Taunton is going with 2-5 for my area. Even the low end verifying would have me sending iceberg that can of Keystone Light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Yes and no, the 18z NAM isn't terribly different than the Euro. Remember for whatever reason I've noticed the 12z pulses down, 0z pulses up on the Euro. Been going on for most of the winter on these offshore lows. It's still very much within the ballpark of the Euro though +/- some. Yeah I thought it looked similar, save for southern NJ which gets good precip on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Surprised that Taunton is going with 2-5 for my area. Even the low end verifying would have me sending iceberg that can of Keystone Light. Youre not sending me nothing...you must shotgun a can and have your wife take a picture. If somehow this pulls even closer and you get 12", its an entire 6 pack in 30min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 NAM Sim Radar just Cranked 75 miles west and puts the Deform. Band over the Cape. First model run that does that since the EURO1 1/2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Not for nothing, but didn't the NAM do okay in the NH/ ME event last week? Not that I am buying the NAM's cheap wares Yes, It scored one up here last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Yes, It scored one up here Well, that was it's quota for the year then... Ah well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Well, that was it's quota for the year then... Ah well lol, But it did not look like it did anything off the wall with this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Seriously 80 knots sustained at 925 in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I don't like the way the mid level low looks elongated N-S. reminds me of the storm that developed right on the heels of another bomb in February and got some in ct w norlun /trowal and got cape w ccb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I predict measurable snow as far north as north conway nh. Anyone want to bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Not going to worry much about the gfs. I would be surprised if it corrects much this run. Rgem to me is the larger marker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I predict measurable snow as far north as north conway nh. Anyone want to bet?How far west are you talking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 North conway nh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 You'd think based on the first two panels of the GFS that it's going to have a much better solution...that said it IS the GOOFUS, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Still spinning up a speedmax over the convection in the gulf that comes across Florida. I don't know, that seems dubious to me. Everything else looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Pick a Met... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Harvey L to the end~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Harvey L to the end~ Hopefully he is signaling we will have to increase these numbers with his thumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 GFS would be fine if not for the nonsense it develops in association with the convection that fires in the Gulf. That's all real, but the GFS just has a helluva time trying to handle it and it stunts/distorts the development of the low. It's still another run or two away from catching on (usually happens once the convection responsible actually fires and it realizes there isn't a 32 unit spin over the top of it). Better hit for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 18z GFS is wetter than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Cant vote against Harv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 In my unmeteorological way of explaining it, the height contours were pointing more north when the low was down in GA - like the images I posted of the GFS "farting" in different directions run to run. It doesn't look all that far off from 12z in a lot of ways, but the end result will be different for many. Right, catching up on the nam a little late, but at hr 30, its right on OBX, the heights are a little higher near the east coast, and it gives every indication of wanting to move north. Then, at hr 33, that damn vorticity pops 100 miles to the east and spoils the party.. But even so, its still west, but its easy to see what could have been had that vorticity not crashed the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Youre not sending me nothing...you must shotgun a can and have your wife take a picture. If somehow this pulls even closer and you get 12", its an entire 6 pack in 30min.lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Cant vote against Harv His map looks decent. There will probably be a decent area of 1-2" Sublimation Delight snow on the NW side...and the sharp cutoff is more reserved for the larger amounts...not totally dissimilar from 2/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The GFS just sharpened the trough for a 5th straight time at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Harvey map looks good. Says he's uncertain still though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Trough almost inverted. Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Harvey showed a couple possibilities, a track that would get 8" into Boston and another that would be more like 1". Sounds like most mets are communicating the importance of final wobbles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Really having a blast today with the animated gifs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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