bristolri_wx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I actually like the BOX map as a decent guess. Yes seems very reasonable considering the modeling at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Me, mpm, hippy, and hunchie all get the shaft. Seasonal trends ftw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Maybe this will be the opposite of that 1978 comparator bust of January '87. What would be worse for you: This, or 3 days of sustained blizzard watch/warnings, with OMGisms constantly scrolling for days ... Then waking up with flurries and dim damning sun? ...believe me this is karma sutra compared to that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Updated BOX map as of 3:38PM. Not much change... I want more and deserve more than this, what did I do to deserve this?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Early on, stronger ridge, slightly more dig to the trof, may see a slight nw trend with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Me, mpm, hippy, and hunchie all get the shaft. Seasonal trends ftw...Was never our storm from the get goBut sad to see it end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It looks a ton better earlier. It's finally ditching the idea of such an early and strong development offshore. But looking good early and looking good later are two different things with this system...so let's see the rest of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Through 21, surface low is noticeably far west compared to 12z. We'll see if it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Boxing Day b**ch bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Could the NAM suck any worse though for real? I mean...these are just huge changes as this thing evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Just a wee little 150 mile bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Could the NAM suck any worse though for real? I mean...these are just huge changes as this thing evolves. Beat me to it by 3 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 thru 27h better digging trough compared to 12z > 6z also watching energy over Indiana / Ohio... that's the stuff that feeds into our coastal low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Could the NAM suck any worse though for real? I mean...these are just huge changes as this thing evolves. This is why I hammered the model yesterday and the day before and urged others not to even waste oxygen discussing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 This is why I hammered the model yesterday and the day before and urged others not to even waste oxygen discussing it. Just looking really roughly it's now the 12z Euro at least through about 30 hours. So...like I said what I like to see is support in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 This is why I hammered the model yesterday and the day before and urged others not to even waste oxygen discussing it. Yea but we are talking these drastic changes at just 24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 overall so far looking significantly better thru 33hr... but black box for me is phantom vorticity that appears out of nowhere farther east... we'll see how that plays out, critical to final solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 To bad this run is probably closer to right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 To bad this run is probably closer to right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 NYC subforum is going to go nuts I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Interesting things to note here, was less amped earlier in run and focused more with the western energy. Now as run comes out, more amped east of NC with the surface low. The slowdown is helping this thing and the NW trend tremendously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Yea but we are talking these drastic changes at just 24 hours... It's so prone to wild swings. It's usually better to use it under 48 hrs, but still prone to being wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 huge changes for coastal NJ at 36h... there's the vorticity popping up again far east... but slp is clearly further NW and consolidated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 actually quite a bit further west than the 12z euro. You can see what happened right from init. Either we've really got a UA problem or the models are messed up. Offshore doesn't get going so we have no runaway convection feeding a developing low, the entire mess ends up closer and it's on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 In my unmeteorological way of explaining it, the height contours were pointing more north when the low was down in GA - like the images I posted of the GFS "farting" in different directions run to run. It doesn't look all that far off from 12z in a lot of ways, but the end result will be different for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Man are the weenies flying in here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 actually quite a bit further west than the 12z euro. You can see what happened right from init. Either we've really got a UA problem or the models are messed up. Offshore doesn't get going so we have no runaway convection feeding a developing low, the entire mess ends up closer and it's on fire. Focused less on the convection to the east early on, probably leading to this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Just remember the NAM is non-hydrostatic which means it is prone to blowing up lows and allowing it to go way west than it should. I will remind folks that the NAM brought the Feb 2013 blizzard over HYA 36-42 hrs out so it's basically useless right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 wth... 972 by 39hrs....! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Just remember the NAM is non-hydrostatic which means it is prone to blowing up lows and allowing it to go way west than it should. I will remind folks that the NAM brought the Feb 2013 blizzard over HYA 36-42 hrs out so it's basically useless right now. I'd put money on a nw trend by the GFS regardless. NAM/GFS tend to move together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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