TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 If only we could get the last minute shift west this time instead of east. I just don't see it happening outside an act of God.. I really favor a scenario that wraps, bombs, and scoots this thing off into the sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I walked in to my co-worker briefing one of our Canadian clients about Nova Scotia and points NE. I would have love to given that briefing...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Doctor Data himself, nah I didn't take it the wrong way. It sucks how easily emotion is misinterpreted online. GEM really focused everything on the western low @12z, that's why we saw such vast improvements. (forgive me I am catching up) Like 55-60 knot sustained on ACK How low does the Euro go? Sub 970? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 So close it hurts. Living 100 mi from the coast is definitely lowering my frustration meter. lol its brutal out here, and overall youre in a better location. you used to live out east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I walked in to my co-worker briefing one of our Canadian clients about Nova Scotia and points NE. I would have love to given that briefing...lol. They are going to get croaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 They are going to get croaked Smashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Man the 12z Euro really is impressive. Closes off at 5h a little earlier maybe, and a smidge west but the structure is different as is the evolution ever so slightly. Still quite the battle west vs east. It's as Will said just minor little bobbles really. Ultimate evolution TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 If only we could get the last minute shift west this time instead of east. Who knows. That event kind of snuck up on everyone because of the previous storm. That trended from nothing to what it ended up being in like 36-48 hours. We still have 30+ hours to sort this out. I think the cape sees a good event. Places such as Plymouth and bristol county are still in limbo of sorts. If this thing ticks west 25-50 miles, that had huge implications for those areas. If this ticks east 25-50 miles we may not see much of anything. As far as I'm concerned southeast ma is still within the conversation for snow showers or a foot. The cutoff is going go be comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 How low does the Euro go? Sub 970?Sub 956mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 How low does the Euro go? Sub 970? Right about 950mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overcast Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Who knows. That event kind of snuck up on everyone because of the previous storm. That trended from nothing to what it ended up being in like 36-48 hours. We still have 30+ hours to sort this out. I think the cape sees a good event. Places such as Plymouth and bristol county are still in limbo of sorts. If this thing ticks west 25-50 miles, that had huge implications for those areas. If this ticks east 25-50 miles we may not see much of anything. As far as I'm concerned southeast ma is still within the conversation for snow showers or a foot. The cutoff is going go be comical Agreed. Likely one of those razor thin cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Sub 956mb Amazing really. Could be into the 940s as it crosses 40N. Not sure why I have bullets on this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 That's essentially how the hurricane developed at the center of the November 1991 Perfect Storm, right? yes, with assistance from the gulf stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Amazing really. Could be into the 940s as it crosses 40N. Not sure why I have bullets on this post. It drops like 20mb in 6hr from 6z-12z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 70 knot gusts kiss ack and chatham 12z ECMWF. Maue clarified and directed me to a separate page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Going to see what happens at 0z if it even trends west 25 miles im going to chatam not going to miss another good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 They are going to get croaked Number 2 analog from CIPS was this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'm surprised we haven't heard from James nichols about this. He may get absolutely destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I'm surprised we haven't heard from James nichols about this. He may get absolutely destroyed He hasnt been around past couple weeks. I know he struggles with personal matters, hope he is aight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 It ends up potentially feeding on itself and could create some significant shifts east - or turn out to be the sticking point in the model presentations to date. We'll see soon! Model convective feedback running away with the eastern low vs. true convection feedback accelerating cyclogenesis Former could lead to some surprises in the next 24 hours. Latter could pull this even further out to sea. Wish we had a better handle on this. When models first depicted that eastern-most low blossoming far east (several days ago), there was briefly some discussion of convective feedback. But it's been shown persistently, and dominant over the rest of the energy spinning around the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 You know what would be awesome ... If the18z NAM came in with 60kt routine gusts in 20" of snow for Logan,then the GFS came half way west; then the storm missed anyway. The apoplexy of the user would know no bounds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I was just thinking.. It's about that time for a NAM run showing a qpf monster for ENE. Only to pull the plug within 24 hours. I'm excited for the 18z RGEM to be honest. Seems to have done well in the 24-36 hr range all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Model convective feedback running away with the eastern low vs. true convection feedback accelerating cyclogenesis Former could lead to some surprises in the next 24 hours. Latter could pull this even further out to sea. Wish we had a better handle on this. When models first depicted that eastern-most low blossoming far east (several days ago), there was briefly some discussion of convective feedback. But it's been shown persistently, and dominant over the rest of the energy spinning around the trough. Yep. Part of this is also a function of the speed of the digging trough which all of the eastern models delayed. We will have to see how that plays out rolling forward, they do go hand in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 18z NAM coming in slower with the second part. I base this off of h2 so YMMV but I think that should translate into good things later vs it's earlier run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 KBOX will have an updated discussion on the storm at 4PM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 18z NAM coming in slower with the second part. I base this off of h2 so YMMV but I think that should translate into good things later vs it's earlier run. Are u sure the 18z nam is out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Are u sure the 18z nam is out? It just initialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Are u sure the 18z nam is out? It's running right now. Only out to 6 hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Updated BOX map as of 3:38PM. Not much change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I actually like the BOX map as a decent guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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