Baroclinic Zone Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Through 18z Wed 0.75 to the canal. 0.5 to my house 0.25 to Ray. 1" HYA. That's still pretty damn good, all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Well, sounds as if it held serve more than anything. Pretty close, though it def pinched the precip gradient a bit. Its a really small movement but it matters verbatim since 20 miles is a big difference between 8" and 3" in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 regular NAM 925mb wind speeds vs. 4km NAM 900mb wind speeds The 2nd map is a post from Ryan Maue on twitter. Holy smokes, 129.8 knots on the 4km NAM! NAM_221_2014032412_F51_WSPD_925_MB.png BjgXg5zCYAABZMz.png it's going nuts with the warm seclusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Keystone light has never looked better. Not gone lie though, was holding out on an miracle for some massive last hour weenie nw tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Boston get anything?0.35-0.40"ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 0.35-0.40"ish. Not bad for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overcast Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 0.35-0.40"ish. Wow. Better than I thought. Don't need much. Just want enough to be able to say good bye to what has been a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 You guys should be booking rooms in Chatham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 That is still a sick QPF gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 You guys should be booking rooms in Chatham That would be a true weenie fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The high res nam loop really illustrates the differences well. Watch it develop the low way offshore with the convection and really have a tough time getting the significant precip west. It's really the difference in an hour or three for it to get pulled further west and subsequently the whole thing develop/blossom more like the wetter solutions. Thing is most of this year has featured slower developing/delayed. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_033_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=1000_500_thick&fhr=033&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140324+12+UTC&ps=area&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The changes at 500 were in the + IMO through hr 36. I'm just getting around to looking at other stuff and there were some improvements believe it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The changes at 500 were in the + IMO through hr 36. I'm just getting around to looking at other stuff and there were some improvements believe it or not. Would you say that because the east low was actually further west this run, it allowed it to capture the west low sooner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The changes at 500 were in the + IMO through hr 36. I'm just getting around to looking at other stuff and there were some improvements believe it or not. Yeah it did look good at 24-36...I actually thought it would come west a tad...I guess we'll just have to wait and see how things evolve in the final 12 hours before precip onset. I still think it won't be THAT big of a deal west of PYM-EWB...but it could still be a moderate storm akin to 2/15 this year...like a 4-6 inch type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 it's going nuts with the warm seclusion the euro cloud maps show an eye. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 the euro cloud maps show an eye. lol I wouldn't count out an eye-like feature when this thing maxes out. I have a feeling there will be some great sat pics for the archives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Pretty close, though it def pinched the precip gradient a bit. Its a really small movement but it matters verbatim since 20 miles is a big difference between 8" and 3" in this storm. h85 is nearly identical, some of the vorticity is focusing further east compared to previous runs, however, the overall h85 track is extremely similar to previous runs. Overall some more consolidation rather compared to previously. 7h is arguably all around better than previous. 5h looking earlier in the run did seem to dig the trof more, but overall look is slightly flatter so the difference in the digging becomes negligible. I like the slower look overall because I think the only potential scenario for this to deliver is improved timing of the interaction of these shortwaves. 5h actually looks closer than it did @ 0z. What I take out of having the chance to actually sit down and look at the past two euro runs is that they are overall pretty damn similar. Be careful looking at purely qpf fields here. some of the mid level tracks actually improved on this euro run while the qpf printout may have shifted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I wouldn't count out an eye-like feature when this thing maxes out. I have a feeling there will be some great sat pics for the archives. i agree. the warm seclusion feature is the most interesting aspect of this storm IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Man this has group Cape chase written all over it. Hopefully some news stations or TWC send someone to CHH so we can see some footage on Wed morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Good luck to Atlantic Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 h85 is nearly identical, some of the vorticity is focusing further east compared to previous runs, however, the overall h85 track is extremely similar to previous runs. Overall some more consolidation rather compared to previously. 7h is arguably all around better than previous. 5h looking earlier in the run did seem to dig the trof more, but overall look is slightly flatter so the difference in the digging becomes negligible. I like the slower look overall because I think the only potential scenario for this to deliver is improved timing of the interaction of these shortwaves. 5h actually looks closer than it did @ 0z. What I take out of having the chance to actually sit down and look at the past two euro runs is that they are overall pretty damn similar. Be careful looking at purely qpf fields here. some of the mid level tracks actually improved on this euro run while the qpf printout may have shifted east. The mid-level lift shifted slightly east...it wasn't a qpf phantom. Early on it was decent, but later it wasn't quite as good. But these small shifts are not necessarily significant in terms of the actual storm evolution since they are orders of magnitude smaller than the mean model error at this time range. But thanks for telling the inventor of the term "QPF Queen" not to only look at QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Just looking at Euro... Western most low does reach slightly more NW, but eastern low pivots it out pretty quickly and you have a consolidated low by 12z Wed. Trough looked a little better through 30hr... small nudge in the right direction, but I wonder if all this is moot relative to Phil's point. If convection at the best baroclinicity is the key driver of the speed/intensity of eastern-most low, you wonder if this can trend even further east as we get closer. 12z models shifty, don't feel like we have a good handle of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Will the coastal affects on the outer Cape/islands be significant? Chatham needs to have it's harbor re-arranged again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The mid-level lift shifted slightly east...it wasn't a qpf phantom. Early on it was decent, but later it wasn't quite as good. But these small shifts are not necessarily significant in terms of the actual storm evolution since they are orders of magnitude smaller than the mean model error at this time range. But thanks for telling the inventor of the term "QPF Queen" not to only look at QPF. Come on, nowhere in there did I direct it at anyone in particular... Amateur Andy who lurks in the shadows might not know otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Come on, nowhere in there did I direct it at anyone in particular... Amateur Andy who lurks in the shadows might not know otherwise See that laughing ol' smiley face at the end of his post... that is Happy Jolly Will... The cutoff for this is going to be sick, as has been mentioned for several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 i agree. the warm seclusion feature is the most interesting aspect of this storm IMO That's essentially how the hurricane developed at the center of the November 1991 Perfect Storm, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Just looking at Euro... Western most low does reach slightly more NW, but eastern low pivots it out pretty quickly and you have a consolidated low by 12z Wed. Trough looked a little better through 30hr... small nudge in the right direction, but I wonder if all this is moot relative to Phil's point. If convection at the best baroclinicity is the key driver of the speed/intensity of eastern-most low, you wonder if this can trend even further east as we get closer. 12z models shifty, don't feel like we have a good handle of this. It ends up potentially feeding on itself and could create some significant shifts east - or turn out to be the sticking point in the model presentations to date. We'll see soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I mentioned a few days ago the 2/15 comparison, and someone mentioned it again today. Seems like that could be pretty close. That's pretty much what the euro shows, maybe more prolific amounts on the outer cape however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overcast Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I mentioned a few days ago the 2/15 comparison, and someone mentioned it again today. Seems like that could be pretty close. That's pretty much what the euro shows, maybe more prolific amounts on the outer cape however If only we could get the last minute shift west this time instead of east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 See that laughing ol' smiley face at the end of his post... that is Happy Jolly Will... The cutoff for this is going to be sick, as has been mentioned for several days Doctor Data himself, nah I didn't take it the wrong way. It sucks how easily emotion is misinterpreted online. GEM really focused everything on the western low @12z, that's why we saw such vast improvements. (forgive me I am catching up) Like 55-60 knot sustained on ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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