Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 This should be the image that captures the biggest issue with this system right now. The uncertainty HAS NOT decreased much in the last 2-4 days. This is because most of the uncertainty is driven by convective processes which haven't yet taken place. I was trying to key on a shortwave feature ejecting out of NW Canada, but truth be told, the uncertainty is really being driven by this shortwave interacting with the strong baroclinicity downstream in the eastern US. This is why we are seeing a double barrel low situation, where one sea level pressure minima is driven by the dynamics and the other driven by the explosion of convection expected in the 24-48 hour range. The problem is that convective processes in the global models are still parameterized and are likely helping to increase the uncertainty between the different model agencies. 100% right on. Clearly we're seeing a real struggle in how this all plays out. As always it's a real deal it's not raw feedback but there are issues with how models will handle the convective processes and that immediately plays out in the development location and intensity at 48-60. The Euro ENS mean was 60-75 miles east of the op but there was decent clustering to the west. Seems safe to assume some movement towards the ens mean track from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 This should be the image that captures the biggest issue with this system right now. The uncertainty HAS NOT decreased much in the last 2-4 days. This is because most of the uncertainty is driven by convective processes which haven't yet taken place. I was trying to key on a shortwave feature ejecting out of NW Canada, but truth be told, the uncertainty is really being driven by this shortwave interacting with the strong baroclinicity downstream in the eastern US. This is why we are seeing a double barrel low situation, where one sea level pressure minima is driven by the dynamics and the other driven by the explosion of convection expected in the 24-48 hour range. The problem is that convective processes in the global models are still parameterized and are likely helping to increase the uncertainty between the different model agencies. I made this post in the NYC sub-forum and it was dismissed faster than the Pope at a Muslim convention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I made this post in the NYC sub-forum and it was dismissed faster than the Pope at a Muslim convention. 4-8 seems like the way to go on the Cape right now east of about Sandwich which in and of itself is remarkable this late in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I can only compare 12z to yesterday's 12z, but it looks sharper and west with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I can only compare 12z to yesterday's 12z, but it looks sharper and west with the trough. That can be good and bad, what really matters is what it's doing north of the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The clicking you hear is everyone hitting refresh for the next panel of the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 That can be good and bad, what really matters is what it's doing north of the Bahamas. Watching the GFS for the last 4 runs, it doesn't surprise me that the trough is sharper though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 EURO Precip. is Way west at 36 Hours. 0.25" make it well into Virginia where it was offshore at Hour 42 at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The clicking you hear is everyone hitting refresh for the next panel of the Euro Haha, right there with ya. Out 30 hours seems to be a tad west with precip as trough digs just slightly more. Trough digs more, but doesn't go quite as negative, therefore resulting in a more easterly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Remember some of the other solutions shoved precip further west but still managed to dumbbell everything too far east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I have tabs that can go back and forth on my phones browser and have the last 4 EURO runs saved. And yes the clicking you hear is everyone hitting F5. Or the Circle button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Euro shifted east with the heavier QPF as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 960 at 40/69 on euro at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Euro looks better aloft and track may be a hair west but ASOUT the QPF shield is beginning to contract quite a bit. Definitely looks like a QPF cut back especially away from the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I have tabs that can go back and forth on my phones browser and have the last 4 EURO runs saved. And yes the clicking you hear is everyone hitting F5. Or the Circle button. I don't have access to the early look. I'd rather see a stronger/faster redevelopment off the Carolinas than a consolidated low. Consolidated will be further east and much more like the others than the 0z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Through 18z Wed 0.75 to the canal. 0.5 to my house 0.25 to Ray. 1" HYA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Through 18z Wdx 0.75 to the canal. 0.5 to my house 0.25 to Ray. 1" HYA. That seems very reasonable, supports 4-8" down here with adjustments possibly needed for OE and further shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I almost thought it would be better, but it pivots the best lift and the shifts it east it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 960 at 40/69 on euro at 48 hours. So close it hurts. Living 100 mi from the coast is definitely lowering my frustration meter. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The actual track of the low is almost exactly the same as 00z except maybe a shade slower early on. The QPF def shifted slightly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 How much for Cold Miser in E CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Well, sounds as if it held serve more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Similar impact for downeast ME compared to 00Z. Congrats EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Through 18z Wed 0.75 to the canal. 0.5 to my house 0.25 to Ray. 1" HYA. Finals thru 00z Thu...a little more for Cape: 1.5" for ACK to CHH, 1" to canal, 0.75" to PYM to Wareham, all the others unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 One thing that's undeniable this winter, the 0z Euro runs always seem to be more extreme. Not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 How much for Cold Miser in E CT? Maybe 0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 How much for Cold Miser in E CT? Maaaybe just enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overcast Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Boston get anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 regular NAM 925mb wind speeds vs. 4km NAM 900mb wind speeds The 2nd map is a post from Ryan Maue on twitter. Holy smokes, 129.8 knots on the 4km NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Finals thru 00z Thu...a little more for Cape: 1.5" for ACK to CHH, 1" to canal, 0.75" to PYM to Wareham, all the others unchanged. That's still pretty extreme and almost hard to believe, but we'll see. I would think that puts it as a top late March storm for most of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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