SouthCoastMA Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I know you are excited, but I definitely would keep in mind that the euro could tick east over the next run or two. Maybe it doesn't it and scores a huge victory....but as someone who has been on the line and disappointed before....I just hate to see some of you get let down. Hopefully it works out. Oh I expect disappointment..lol. We will know in 90 min. Any tick eastward by the euro and I expect nothing more than 2".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The eastern low has the best combo of WAA, PVA, and as Ryan said...static stability (owing to the warm gulfstream waters)...all letting the low completely go nuts. That all assumes a set of model conditions that are changing....and changing pretty substantially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 That all assumes a set of model conditions that are changing....and changing pretty substantially Nothing has changed regarding the ern low itself. What could change is the low position...those are two different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Yeah the GGEM is more amped than the RGEM interestingly...that usually doesn't happen. But GGEM is a pretty good hit even for BOS. Complete blizzard for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Canadian looks good for the Cape, especially east of HYA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Holyshute on the GGEM 99 850 ,closed 516 south, yikes,oh this ramped up my interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Truro Trouncer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Seems like the Canadian is asking the Euro (when it comes to precip for extreme SE New England, "Can I please hop back on the train? I know I jumped off earlier but I'm sorry!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Ggem is significantly west. There's no denying what happened at 12z IMO. I doubt that focus change is over. Even if that drops us in the middle of the euro/this run compromise it's a major late year snow down here. Uk didn't seem to back off to me. Assuming because of panel lapse but looks like 1+ on the cape? People don't give you enough credit. Keep up the PBP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Vort tends to catch onto small trends and nuances and is one of our best amateurs. I'm still bearish on anything sig close to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Good point from JB and refreshing @BigJoeBastardi: Most models to assume polar frontal wave will be boss.I think arctic wave off va cape will be.would mean track 100 nw http://t.co/shxUIY0OuM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Ggem is way west. Blizzard for cape, very nice hit here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Nothing has changed regarding the ern low itself. What could change is the low position...those are two different things. Will disagree. Superficially maybe not, but aloft it has. With the slower and deeper approach of the trailing energy we will have a more northerly trajectory of that offshore low. The result is the eventual bombogenesis occurs much further west. The NAM/GFS and some others are still really struggling offshore and IMO are allowing that to run amuck a bit too much, and still escape just a little (few hours) too far. Changes the whole outcome. I'm actually with Bastardi for once, but I don't think the GGEM this run is dramatically far off one way or the other. This is a pretty good solution IMO for the hand off. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html perfect example there....picture a slightly more intense western system and an eastern system that doesn't escape as far out before it all starts to rotate. Dramatically different to a POINT and people need to realize that. It can only go so far west because it's the pivoting of two systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 So I still have no idea what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Good point from JB and refreshing @BigJoeBastardi: Most models to assume polar frontal wave will be boss.I think arctic wave off va cape will be.would mean track 100 nw http://t.co/shxUIY0OuM he's said that so many times in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 My feeling on it is the low should be about 1/3 or maybe 1/2 the way further NW towards the BM vs this prog at 48 hours http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Comfortable with that for now, a stronger western low inevitably tugs the development a little further west and we get a more rapid consolidation down around 70 as the low moves SE of the BM. I think that tweet implies something entirely different which is no real offshore "low" at that point and instead the low off Hatteras blowing up. I don't think that's really the case, I think it may be strong enough though to help slam everything a little further NW just in time. We'll see. GFS ENS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Will disagree. Superficially maybe not, but aloft it has. With the slower and deeper approach of the trailing energy we will have a more northerly trajectory of that offshore low. The result is the eventual bombogenesis occurs much further west. The NAM/GFS and some others are still really struggling offshore and IMO are allowing that to run amuck a bit too much, and still escape just a little (few hours) too far. Changes the whole outcome. I'm actually with Bastardi for once, but I don't think the GGEM this run is dramatically far off one way or the other. This is a pretty good solution IMO for the hand off. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html perfect example there....picture a slightly more intense western system and an eastern system that doesn't escape as far out before it all starts to rotate. Dramatically different to a POINT and people need to realize that. It can only go so far west because it's the pivoting of two systems. I said nothing about aloft. Eastern low is an eastern low. I said location could change which means farther west and more north, or east and farther out to sea. Obviously that is driven by changes aloft. I had a feeling you would PBP this yesterday. Remember when I told you last week you weren't done? Trust Scooter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 waste of a warm seclusion. euro 850 mb temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I said nothing about aloft. Eastern low is an eastern low. I said location could change which means farther west and more north, or east and farther out to sea. Obviously that is driven by changes aloft. I had a feeling you would PBP this yesterday. Remember when I told you last week you weren't done? Trust Scooter. Was mostly disinterested until these shifts this morning. We've had several systems that failed to congeal in time this winter so those eastern solutions weren't standing out. But it's no longer a matter of a 500mb developing out of nowhere..there's a large shift in the speed of the features aloft and that's playing out pretty dramatically. It can only get so far NW. But with the gradient that will be there on such a development, even 50 more miles is an enormous difference. The GGEM seems like a reasonable compromise to me which is somewhere between 1 and 46" for me because I can't tell due to the map quality. It's very close, and the RGEM too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 he's said that so many times in the past What a fool. Worst ending to winter ever imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 waste of a warm seclusion. euro 850 mb temps Waste out your way, I see a screaming OE contribution in those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 he's said that so many times in the past weenie holding onto weenie. He grasping at straws... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Waste out your way, I see a screaming OE contribution in those maps. east of the canal is a different world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Good point from JB and refreshing @BigJoeBastardi: Most models to assume polar frontal wave will be boss.I think arctic wave off va cape will be.would mean track 100 nw http://t.co/shxUIY0OuM Absolutely shocking he thinks that. Shocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 east of the canal is a different world Not according to the GEFS which is still just a very minor/nuisance event until ACK. Coating to an inch or two for the entire Cape on the 12z GEFS. Will have to see what the Euro does, given what the GFS was doing offshore I think I'd lean away from anything GFS based. NCEP model diagnostic seems very reasonable. An overall adjustment east in the OP Euro seems likely but I do think there will be an inevitable shift west up this way in some of the eastern outliers. The net result is the focus is where KTAN has it. MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 101 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014 VALID MAR 24/1200 UTC THRU MAR 28/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ================================================== 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ================================================== NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT. ================================================== ...STORM AFFECTING THE EAST COAST... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF WITH ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN OTHER APPLICABLE SOLUTIONS: 12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z UKMET THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AND ARE INCREASINGLY AGREEABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS. BY 26/00Z ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SHOULD EXIST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH TWO EMBEDDED CIRCULATION CENTERS. THE LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA WILL BE IN THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON STORM TRACK THROUGH TIME. SOME SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER...SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET EMPHASIZE THE INTENSITY OF THE SECOND LOW...CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND TUCKED UNDER THE GREATER MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. THE EFFECT OF THIS IS TO PULL THE OVERALL STORM TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST ONCE A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONE FORMS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF HAS HAD A TENDENCY TO DO THIS OVER THE WINTER WITH VARIED RESULTS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS LESS EMPHASIS ON THE SECONDARY LOW...WITH A RESULTANT TRACK ABOUT 75 NM EAST OF THE ECMWF. OVERALL...THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GIVE US GREATER CONFIDENCE IN BLENDING THEIR SOLUTIONS TO ARRIVE AT THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION. BUT CONVERGENCE OF THE OTHER MODELS DOES BRING THEM INTO PLAY. THE 12Z NAM IS ACTUALLY VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR INTENSITY AND TRACK. IT IS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE THERMAL FIELDS...ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS ALSO TRACKS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT SOMEWHAT WEAK AT THE SURFACE AND 850 MB. THERE ARE NUMEROUS 06Z GEFS MEMBERS THAT SUPPORT THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS...DIPPING BELOW 970 MB BY 26/12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 This should be the image that captures the biggest issue with this system right now. The uncertainty HAS NOT decreased much in the last 2-4 days. This is because most of the uncertainty is driven by convective processes which haven't yet taken place. I was trying to key on a shortwave feature ejecting out of NW Canada, but truth be told, the uncertainty is really being driven by this shortwave interacting with the strong baroclinicity downstream in the eastern US. This is why we are seeing a double barrel low situation, where one sea level pressure minima is driven by the dynamics and the other driven by the explosion of convection expected in the 24-48 hour range. The problem is that convective processes in the global models are still parameterized and are likely helping to increase the uncertainty between the different model agencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 This should be the image that captures the biggest issue with this system right now. The uncertainty HAS NOT decreased much in the last 2-4 days. This is because most of the uncertainty is driven by convective processes which haven't yet taken place. I was trying to key on a shortwave feature ejecting out of NW Canada, but truth be told, the uncertainty is really being driven by this shortwave interacting with the strong baroclinicity downstream in the eastern US. This is why we are seeing a double barrel low situation, where one sea level pressure minima is driven by the dynamics and the other driven by the explosion of convection expected in the 24-48 hour range. The problem is that convective processes in the global models are still parameterized and are likely helping to increase the uncertainty between the different model agencies. I agree 100%, I will absolutely not be surprised if the evolution of this storm from the coast of GA to Cape Cod is a total nowcast deal. I am simply bullish on the uncertainty associated with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Twiddling my thumbs waiting for the euro... feel like I'm waiting for a new license at the DMV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Twiddling my thumbs waiting for the euro... feel like I'm waiting for a new license at the DMV You would be waiting longer there then you will for the euro, It has initialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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